Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 1998

CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR
SEVERE.  WSR-88D SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING OVER FAR SE CO PLAINS AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE NEW ZONE ISSUANCE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
STILL FIRING OVER THE MTNS ACCORDING TO 88D AND LIGHTNING CHART WITH
A S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.  AREAS OF FOG WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES
HAVE DEVELOPED AT COS BUT BELIEVE AREAS OF FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD OVER
PLAINS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE BKN TO OVC.  WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN PLAINS AS EVIDENCED BY OBS AT TAD/LAA/COS/LHX.  SEVERAL
PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR A 50-70
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN MTNS/NEARBY FOOTHILLS.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 AOA 1 INCH WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.  SHEAR
PROFILE LOOKS GOOD WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SE 10-20 KNOTS...700 MB WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-20 KNOTS AND 500 MB WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 20-30
KNOTS.  850 MB THETA-E AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS AND WE SHOULD
SEE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO APPROACH 20C.
WILL GO WITH 40-60 PERCENT POPS FOR ERN MTNS/NEARBY FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ELSEWHERE IN THE MTNS.  ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY AND WILL HAVE TROUBLE GENERATING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS THERE WITH LACK
OF UPPER FORCING SO WILL FORECAST LOWER POPS AND TEMPERATURES THERE.
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW LOW LEVEL CAP HOLDING STRONG OVER FAR ERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL WARMING.  HOWEVER...CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG OVER WRN PLAINS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS IN FAVORABLE 7500-10000 FT RANGE...SO MAIN THREATS FROM
TSTMS TODAY SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LESS THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH SHOULD
KEEP STORMS MOVING AT A BETTER PACE.  AFTER COORDINATION WITH DEN...
WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOON THRU MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES 71/72.
STP CHART SHOWS THREE AREAS OF 2-5 INCH RAIN OVER NW COS/SCNTRL AND SE
COS/AND IN THE CALHAN AREA.  COS AIRPORT HAD 1.67 INCHES YESTERDAY.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR EL PASO COUNTY IS QUITE LOW WITH ONLY 1.3
INCHES IN 3 HRS TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.  ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE
FASTER MOVING TODAY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HIGH OVER EL PASO COUNTY.
SR

COZ060>081-010600-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
NOON MDT FRI JUL 31 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES:

ALAMOSA      BACA        BENT          CHAFFEE        CONEJOS
COSTILLA     CROWLEY     CUSTER        EL PASO        FREMONT
HUERFANO     KIOWA       LAS ANIMAS    MINERAL        OTERO
PROWERS      PUEBLO      RIO GRANDE    SAGUACHE       TELLER

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES
FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

SOME AREAS OF EL PASO COUNTY...WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY...NORTHERN BENT
COUNTY...AND WESTERN PROWERS COUNTY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

DAYTIME HEATING...PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME OF THE SLOW MOVING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER TELLER AND EL
PASO COUNTIES WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SOME AREAS.

A FEW STORMS...ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM COLORADO SPRINGS TO
TRINIDAD...MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

TLM