Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
318 AM CST SUN MAR 8 1998

00Z NGM DATA A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THIS FORECAST. H5 LOW MOVES NE TO NE
AR WITH SFC LOW LIFTING TO WRN KY BY 00Z MON. COLD FRONT SEEN IN
CURRENT SFC ANAL PUSHING OFF THE TX COAST AND SOON TO ENTER WRN MS.
KMOB LOOP SHOWS SQUALL LINE WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ADVANCING EWD...SO
WILL KEEP FFW TODAY FOR NW FL AND AL COUNTIES GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65...AND WILL LIKELY DROP THIS LATER THIS MORNING AS LL
JET SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. WV SAT LOOP SHOWS PROMINENT DRY SLOT
ADVANCING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO TN/KY AND LESS QUICKLY INTO AL IN WAKE OF
SQUALL LINE.  NGM PROGS DEEP DRY AIR TO CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO CWA
THROUGH TODAY. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO DECELERATE TODAY AS SFC LOW LIFTS
NE WHICH PUT EXPECTED FROPA BY MIDDAY FOR WRN CWA AND EXIT ERN CWA
DURING THE MID AFT HOURS. PER COORD WITH BHM/SPC...THINKING IS THAT
SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH FRONT TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  CONSIDERING COOL AND DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
DYNAMICS ADVANCING INTO CWA THIS AFT...WILL KEEP SVR WORDING IN ZONES
FOR TODAY DESPITE ONLY MILD LL SHEAR. DRY CONDITIONS FINALLY ARRIVE
FOR TONIGHT AND SUN.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...HAVE ACTUALLY ATTAINED GALE CONDITIONS AT
DPI...BUT WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN NEXT FEW HOURS AS SQUALL LINE
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN IN SCA RANGE
THROUGH MON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
W AND THEN TO THE NW FOR TONIGHT.

MOB 72/43/56/33 6100  PNS 73/45/58/35 7100
DTS 70/48/61/38 +100  EVR 71/43/52/29 7100 29

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
618 AM CST SUN MAR 8 1998

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
CLOUDY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
THUS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN GREATER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...FAVORING STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL.  THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS WATER IN THE FLOODED AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE.
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE AREA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ALZ051>059-061>064-FLZ001>004-081405-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
732 AM CST SUN MAR 8 1998

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

  IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MOBILE...BALDWIN...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...
     CLARKE...WILCOX...MONROE...CONECUH...ESCAMBIA...BUTLER AND
     CRENSHAW

  IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA.

AT 732 AM CST...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST2 OUT OF THESE
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65...THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS
MORNING.

ALZ051>059-061>064-FLZ001>004-081405-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
732 AM CST SUN MAR 8 1998

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

  IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MOBILE...BALDWIN...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...
     CLARKE...WILCOX...MONROE...CONECUH...ESCAMBIA...BUTLER AND
     CRENSHAW

  IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA.

AT 732 AM CST...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST2 OUT OF THESE
COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 65...THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THIS
MORNING.