Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 1998

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST SELY FLOW DOMINATING MUCH OF FA WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JAL NM-N KMAF-GARDEN CITY.  DRYLINE
REMAINS OVER EXTREME WRN CWA BUT SHOWING SUBTLE SIGNS OF MIXING EWD
(KGDP DEWPOINT 46F DOWN FROM 53F).  HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
MIX TO FAR E TODAY GIVEN DEPTH OF MOISTURE E OF THE MOUNTAINS (KMAF
12Z SOUNDING SATURATED TO 800 MB).  KMAF 88D VWP INDICATING SELY
WINDS FROM SFC TO 11K FT MSL WITH SLIGHT WAA INDICATED BETWEEN 11-
15K FT (LIMIT OF SCATTERERS).  WV LOOP SHOWS MID/HIGH LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUING OVER FA WITH LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE INDICATING
CUMULUS FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING H5 RIDGE (PERHAPS TOO FAST)
OVER FA NEXT 18-24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW OVER PACIFIC NW.
IN THE INTERIM... ATMOSPHERE BECOMING PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF CWA AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN
ADDITION...SPORADIC POCKETS OF LIFT (QVEC CONV 850-300 MB)...MAINLY
SRN PORTION OF FA...AND WEAK PVA OVER WRN FA AND NUMEROUS SFC
BOUNDARIES (DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) SHOULD PROVIDE FOR WDLY
SCT TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER CWA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
BELIEVE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL (KMAF 12Z SOUNDING PW
1.00) AS STEERING WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (10-20 KNOTS).
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH CAPES
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG AND MINUS 10 TO MINUS 14 LI/S.  LATER
TONIGHT MAY SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SERN PORTIONS GIVEN UPSLOPE WINDS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...IF ABOVE RIDGE DEVELOPS...IT MAY DECREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY OVER THE FA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE WITH A TOUCH
OF GUIDANCE AS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN WX PATTERN NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAF  65/92 21
CNM  62/93 21
MRF  52/89 21
P07  70/90 21

TWE/BF