Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
200 PM CDT MON MAY 25 1998

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA (NEAR KFST) WITH DRYLINE WEST OF KP07.  POST FRONTAL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 60S SOUTH OF FRONT AND EAST
OF DRYLINE.  KMAF 88D VWP INDICATES DEPTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
INCREASED LAST SEVERAL HOURS TO 3000-3500 FEET (NORTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS IN THIS LAYER).  SOME CUMULUS CAN BE
SEEN OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DOMINATING THE SKY.  LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO MOVING NORTHEAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL H5 WEATHER PATTERN NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW AHEAD OF DEEP LOW APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY (SUBTROPICAL) FLOW ALOFT.
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN FA (MAINLY NORTHEAST) LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (SEE ADAP PRODUCT SS2)
REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA (LOW ROLLING PLAINS)
ATTM.  CAP HOLDING STRONG AS A LOOK OUTSIDE YIELDS NO CUMULUS.  AT
THE SFC...ETA AND NGM DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW WITH RESPECT TO
RETURN MOISTURE AND POSITION OF DRYLINE.  ATTM WILL LEAN CLOSER TO
ETA AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY CLOSE TONIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN CAPES NEAR 2000 OVER EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TOMORROW.  THIS
COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE MAY GIVE SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL STICK CLOSE TO FWC GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS IT
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS AND EXPECTED DEWPOINTS.  FOR TOMORROW
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE WITH A TOUCH OF FWC GUIDANCE.

MAF  62/95 21
CNM  58/95 --
MRF  50/88 -0
P07  69/94 11

EARLE