Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
120 PM EST MON AUG 24 1998

FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY PRECIP THREAT..

KLOT RADAR INDICATING RATHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS NCNTRL
ILLINOIS WORKING QUICKLY EASTWARD.  COMPLEX SHOULD AFFECT NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS AT BAY... LATEST ADAS
SHOWING CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  VWP
INDICATING FAVORABLE WINDS FOR DAMAGING WINDS.. AND EXPECT COMPLEX TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.

ETA/NGM BOTH SUGGESTING AT MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT OVER EASTERN
IOWA.. WITH THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATING MOVEMENT TOWARD NORTHERN
INDIANA.  MID LEVEL WINDS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE MENTION OF SEVERE ALL
NIGHT IN THE ZONES.  THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH
PWAT VALUES OVER 1.6 INCHES AND A STRONG THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
LEAD ME TO RECOMMEND MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

CHANCE POPS PROBABLY IN ORDER FOR WESTERN HALF OF FA TOMORROW.. SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHING AROUND MIDDAY SHOULD FINALLY BRING AN END TO PRECIP
THREAT.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN ORDER FOR EASTERN HALF OF AREA AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER PERIODS OF FORECAST APPEAR QUIET.

FWC/FAN TEMPS DIFFER A BIT&...ESPECIALLY IN LATER PERIODS.  BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO.

SBN 070/080 060/082 059 09830
FWA 071/086 062/084 060 09740
AOH 071 087 063/085 061 09741

.IWX...NONE.

MARGRAF!

OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-241515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1050 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR NORTHWEST OHIO...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR WILLIAMS...
FULTON... DEFIANCE... HENRY... PAULDING... PUTNAM... VAN WERT AND
ALLEN COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO.

SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY NOT A THREAT TO THE AREA.  HOWEVER..
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF
THOSE MAY BECOME SEVERE.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
LOCAL COMMERCIAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS
AFTERNOONS WEATHER.

JM

OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-241515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1050 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED FOR NORTHWEST OHIO...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR WILLIAMS...
FULTON... DEFIANCE... HENRY... PAULDING... PUTNAM... VAN WERT AND
ALLEN COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO.

SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY NOT A THREAT TO THE AREA.  HOWEVER..
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF
THOSE MAY BECOME SEVERE.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
LOCAL COMMERCIAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS
AFTERNOONS WEATHER.

JM

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-241700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1100 AM EST MON AUG 24 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE AREA
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BECOME
SEVERE... WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL TV AND RADIO BROADCASTS FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS
AFTERNOONS WEATHER.

MARGRAF

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-241700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1100 AM EST MON AUG 24 1998

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WARM HUMID AIR OVER THE AREA
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BECOME
SEVERE... WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR LOCAL TV AND RADIO BROADCASTS FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS
AFTERNOONS WEATHER.

MARGRAF

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>080-250000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
140 PM EST MON AUG 24 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794 IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL 700 PM EST/800 PM EDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 794 INCLUDES ALL OF NORTHERN
INDIANA... AND BERRIEN...CASS...ST JOSEPH... BRANCH... AND HILLSDALE
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCASTS OR YOUR LOCAL TV AND
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS AFTERNOONS SEVERE
WEATHER.

MARGRAF

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>080-250000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
140 PM EST MON AUG 24 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794 IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL 700 PM EST/800 PM EDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 794 INCLUDES ALL OF NORTHERN
INDIANA... AND BERRIEN...CASS...ST JOSEPH... BRANCH... AND HILLSDALE
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCASTS OR YOUR LOCAL TV AND
RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS AFTERNOONS SEVERE
WEATHER.

MARGRAF