Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 AM EST MON AUG 24 1998

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING FRONT DRAPED FROM E NE INTO N MI.  NOTHING
TO SPEAK OF FOR CONVECTION THIS AM IN WARM SECTOR.  WEAK TROF FROM
SE WI INTO SE IA HAD GENERATED A FEW SHOWERS LAST HR ACRS SOUTH END
OF LM BUT SO FAR UNIMPRESSIVE.  THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF ONTARIO UPR TROF AXIS AND ALONG EDGE OF MID LVL CAP WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HOLDING THINGS IN CHECK EVEN THOUGHT FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE SEEN IN THE 950-850 MB LVL THIS AM. TWO SW/S OF
NOTE...MOST ACTIVE BY FAR HAS BEEN THE ONE CROSSING ONTARIO THIS AM
WITH STRONGER SYS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IN MT.

QUESTIONS THIS AM ARE MANY.

6Z ADAS CONT TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY THIS AM ESP AHD OF WEAK
TROF AXIS IN IL WHERE MID 70 DEWPOINTS HAD POOLED.  ADAS SHOWING
BEST SFC CONV VCNTY OF W MI BACK INTO SE IA.  SEEMS EVEN WITH LOW LVL
JET IN PLACE JUST NOT ENOUGH CONV TO GET THINGS GOING IN FACE OF SUCH
WARM MID LVL TEMPS.  NGM DOES TRY TO DEVELOP SOMETHING ACRS S WI
INTO N IL THIS AM BUT FEEL MID LVL CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL MT SW
AND COOLING ALOFT APPROACH THE FA LATER TONIGHT. ONLY FLY IN THIS
SCENARIO IS THE FACT THAT ETA HAS NO SFC CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
PROGGED BY 00Z TUE. BUT LYR MEAN 850-700MB OMEGA SHOWS DVM
ACRS THE FA BEHIND DEPARTING ONT SW AND PRIMARY FORCING BACK
WEST IN IA INVOF SFC LOW AND UPR TROF.  THIS ALL TRACK EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS IN CURRENT ZONES SUPPORTED.

FRONT PROGGED TO DROP THRU FA ON TUE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
LIKELY DEPENDENT ON AMT OF INSOLATION.  WOULD STILL CARRY SMALL
CHC POP WITH FRONT AROUND AND SOME QUESTION ON BONNIE'S INFLUENCE
THEN.

TEMP,S NR PERSISTENCE XPC TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FAN LOOKS TOO COOL TUE
WITH MOS BETTER AND CLOSE TO ETA 2M TEMPS.

SBN 088/068 083/061 080 66263
FWA 090/069 086/061 081 66263
AOH 090/069 087/062 081 66255

.IWX...NONE.

TEH