Flash Flood Warning 186, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
820 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 1998

MSTR CONTINUES TO ADVECT FM MADELINE ACRS MEXICO INTO TX. THIS MSTR
COMBINED WITH THE SFC FNT TO THE NORTH AND UPR DYNAMICS TO GENERATE
COPIOUS RAIN/TSTMS TDA JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. NEVERTHELESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED MAINLY THE CNTRL
AND ERN CWA TDA IN PART DUE TO THE RRQ OF THE UPR JET STREAK. THIS
STREAK IS PROGD BY ALL MODELS TO LIFT NEWD. THE AVN IS PREFERRED
ATTM SINCE COMPARISON WITH LAPS INDICATES THAT IT IS BETTER THAN NGM
AND ETA IN FCSTG THE SFC PRES FIELD OVR THE WRN CWA. THE AVN PROGD A
SFC LOW TO DVLP FM 00 TO 06 UTC OVR THE WRN CWA AND LAPS PRES PTNS
INDICATES SUCH. THUS EXPECT PCPN TO DVLP OVR THE WRN CWA TNGT.
WSR-88D IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE SUCH. AVN PROGS THE WRN CWA LOW TO
DMSH YET DRAGS THE SFC FNT INTO THE CWA SUN...AND KEEPS IT
QUASI-STATIONARY...WHICH WL ENHANCE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SFC THETA-E VALUES ARE ALREADY GREATER THAN THAT
PROGD BY THE NGM/ETA/AVN. HIGH LOW LVL AND MID LVL MSTR WL LIKELY
RESULT IN COPIOUS RAINS OVR PTNS OF THE CWA SUN. NO CHGS TO CURRENT
PERIOD ATTM...HWR SUGGEST MENTION OF PSBL HVY RAIN IN THE ZNS FOR
SUN...AND CONSIDER PSBL ISSUANCE OF FFA.

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