Severe Thunderstorm Warning 334, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT THU AUG 27 1998

MAIN CHALLENGE THE NEXT 48HRS IS POPS IN FIRST 12HRS.

AT 20Z...SFC FRONT SEEMS TO BE FROM NEAR HYS TO JUST W OF GCK TO NEAR
EHA.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT IS
SIGNIFICANT...WITH DEW POINTS OF 71/72/74 AT GBD/HYS/RSL.  CAP IS
ESSENTIALLY GONE ACROSS ALL OF CWA...AND CU FIELD JUST CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP.  STRONG STORM POPPED FIRST IN EXTREME EASTERN HODGEMAN
COUNTY ABOUT 1940Z...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A SVR STORM (DIME HAIL)
IN EASTERN PAWNEE CO.  STORM MOVEMENT IS NE AROUND 20 MPH...SO EXPECT
MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
MAIN SEVERE THREAT.  HEAVY A GOOD BET WITH ANY STORM WITH SO MUCH
JUICE AVAILABLE.

THIS MORNING MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWED ETA BEST AT 5H WITH RESPECT
TO SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA...AS WELL AS WITH BONNIE.
PLUS...ETA PICKED UP ON SMALL 594 HIGH PRESS OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
BEST.  AT SFC AND 850MB...NO MODEL WAS PICKING UP ON POSITION OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 12Z...BUT NGM HAD BEST 6 HOUR POSITION.
THUS...WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN ETA AND NGM FOR TEMPS AND
TIMING OF STARTING/ENDING PRECIP CHANCES.  AVN SEEMS TOO LIGHT ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS AND HANGS ON TO MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO LONG.
GOING WITH FEW OR NO CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...AFTER EARLY MORNING LOW POPS
IN SOUTH.  SAME OR LITTLE WARMER FOR SATURDAY.

WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW FWC TEMP GUIDANCE...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE
CLOSE TO FAN TEMP GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED: CHALLENGE THIS EXTENDED PERIOD IS POPS AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND JUST HOW MUCH TROFINESS STAYS OR REINFORCES ITSELF IN
THE ERN 1/3 US.  UKMET COOLER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ERN TROF AND
DEEPER ANTICYCLONE THAT COULD KEEP COOLER AIR BACKED INTO THE
ROCKIES.  MRF/EURO A LITTLE WARMER AND LESS TROFINESS IN THE EAST.
WILL BLEND MORE TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER MRF/EURO AND KEEP HINT OF
COOLER UKMET.  NW FLOW CONT AT H5 TO ALSO BRING MORE CHANCES OF TRW
THRU THE PERIOD...MAINLY EVE AND OVERNIGHT.  FNTL BNDRY HANGS UP IN
FAR WEST ON SUN/MON AND THEN RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON TUE.  COLD
FRONT PROGGED THEN ON TUES NIGHT AND WED MORN WITH COOLER TEMPS WED
AND THURSDAY BACK INTO 80S.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK LIKE TUES
NIGHT WITH FRONT...HOWEVER WITH NW FLOW PATTERN CANT RULE OUT A
CHANCE EACH DAY THRU TUES BUT WITH LESSER CHANCE AFTER FROPA AND
LARGE ANITICYLONE TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR WED AND THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 066/090 063/093 063 62-
GCK 064/087 060/090 062 61-
EHA 063/088 062/091 062 52-
LBL 067/091 064/094 063 62-
HYS 065/089 065/093 064 72-
P28 070/092 067/095 066 721

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE/KRUSE