Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 AM CDT THU AUG 27 1998

ANALYSIS AND WV LOOP SHOWS NICE S/W OVER WESTERN WYOMING.  850 MOIST
AXIS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z AND DEWPOINTS 14-16C AND 700
DEWPOINTS FROM 6-8C.  SO DEEP MOISTURE OVER REGION.  AS S/W MOVES
SOUTHEAST TODAY...SHOULD PULL FRONT INTO NORTHERN CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SO.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON FRONT POSITION THROUGH 24 HOURS
BUT ETA A LITTLE FASTER THAN OTHERS.  SEEING 2MB PRESSURE RISES OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AT 06Z.  SHOULD SEE THINGS SPEED UP AS THE WAVE
PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND WILL GO WITH ETA TIMING. WITH VAST AMOURNS
OF MOISTURE AND COOLING MID LEVELS...THINK WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
IN THE WORKS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ABOUT 185 PERCENT NORMAL SO STRONG PROBABILITY FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.
WILL LIKELY MENTION HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN CHC OF SEVERE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PERIODS.

SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE INTO FRIDAY PERIOD THOUGH LOW LEVELS DRY
DURING THE DAY.  EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU DEVELOP AND MAY PERHAPS SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.  WILL WORD FRIDAY PERIOD AS SUCH ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHEAST ZONES.

FWC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 095/065 087/063 087 461
GCK 093/063 087/060 087 561
EHA 093/063 086/060 087 462
LBL 092/065 086/061 087 362
HYS 092/064 087/061 086 561
P28 095/067 067/064 088 361

.DDC...NONE.

REITER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-280600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 AM CDT THU AUG 27 1998

SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE AREA WHERE SEVERE
WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY IS EAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY
TO HAYS...ALSO INCLUDING DODGE CITY...LARNED...GREENSBURG AND
MEDICINE LODGE.

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR COLBY TO TRIBUNE THEN WEST INTO
COLORADO AT LATE MORNING WILL MARCH SLOWLY EAST AND BE FROM NEAR
CONCORDIA TO NEAR DODGE CITY TO NEAR LIBERAL BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL AND CONVERGE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS THE DAY HEATS UP...THE AIR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING.

ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE IN NATURE...PRODUCING
ISOLATED EVENTS OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WINDS TO 70 MPH.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

BURKE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-280600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 AM CDT THU AUG 27 1998

SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE AREA WHERE SEVERE
WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY IS EAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY
TO HAYS...ALSO INCLUDING DODGE CITY...LARNED...GREENSBURG AND
MEDICINE LODGE.

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR COLBY TO TRIBUNE THEN WEST INTO
COLORADO AT LATE MORNING WILL MARCH SLOWLY EAST AND BE FROM NEAR
CONCORDIA TO NEAR DODGE CITY TO NEAR LIBERAL BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL AND CONVERGE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS THE DAY HEATS UP...THE AIR
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING.

ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE IN NATURE...PRODUCING
ISOLATED EVENTS OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS WINDS TO 70 MPH.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

BURKE