Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
159 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 1997

BUSY AFTERNOON WITH SQUALL LINE PRODUCING FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER
NOLAN...TAYLOR...CALLAHAN...BROWN...AND COLEMAN COUNTIES AND ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TAKING AIM OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. DOPPLER
ESTIMATES LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN OVER AREAS WEST OF AN ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO LINE. THUS WILL
CAMPAIGN FOR FFA ISSUANCE FOR FISHER...MITCHELL...NOLAN...STERLING...
COKE...IRION...TOM GREEN AND RUNNELS COUNTIES WITH CONTINUED FFA FOR
THE FTW ZONES.

DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS GETTING OFF TO A POOR START THIS
MORNING...SOMEHOW THE ETA APPEARS TO GET BACK ON TRACK BY 12 HOURS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WITH VERTICAL MOTIONS
BEST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BUT TAILING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THETA-E RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERLY 850 MB INFLOW
OF 10-20 KTS FORECAST BY AVN/ETA MODELS...EXPECT MCS TO EVOLVE FROM
SEVERE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE MAF/LBB COUNTY WARNING AREAS.
SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MAF
COUNTY WARNING AREA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKS UP THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND CURRENT STORM COMPLEX
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH ACTIVITY. UPPER LOW FINALLY EJECTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE 2ND PERIOD...AND AS IT DOES...WOULD
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO BE READY TO GO AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RELOAD OVER THE AREA. WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHER
POPS TO THE NORTH. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT TOMORROW WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SO WILL LEAN ON NGM HIGHS.

ABI 064/084 74
SJT 066/088 73
JCT 067/089 42

OAKS

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-091335-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
229 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 1997

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A
STERLING CITY TO ELDORADO TO SONORA LINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

AT 220 PM...AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF FAR
WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED EAST OF AN
ABILENE TO BRADY LINE...AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TAPPING INTO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...SATURATED GROUNDS AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SERIOUS FLOODING THREAT
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHECK FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS... THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOKS SEE PRODUCTS LBBSPSLBB...
OKCSPSOKC... FTWSPSFTW... AND SATSPSSAT.

15

TXZ049-053-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-091335-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
229 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 1997

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A
STERLING CITY TO ELDORADO TO SONORA LINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

AT 220 PM...AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO PARTS OF FAR
WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED EAST OF AN
ABILENE TO BRADY LINE...AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED
BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TAPPING INTO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...SATURATED GROUNDS AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SERIOUS FLOODING THREAT
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHECK FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO OUTLOOK SEnE PRODUCT LBBSPSMAF. FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS... THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOKS SEE PRODUCTS LBBSPSLBB...
OKCSPSOKC... FTWSPSFTW... AND SATSPSSAT.

15