Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
140 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 1997

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED LOW
CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER.  A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS HAS
HELPED PRODUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF MIDLAND WHICH
CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. NGM SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET MAX
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW...WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW CONTINUING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS.

THE CUT OFF LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE NEXT VORT MAX MOVING OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE WEST WITH FORECASTED
CAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE TO THE
WEST AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVE OVER WEST TEXAS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER WEST
TEXAS AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...SURFACE TROUGH AND
LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SHOWN ON DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA
BY EVENING.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE...WITH THETA E RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...DRY
WEST WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT.  LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WET...WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG A POSSIBILITY AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GO CLOSE TO NGM GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE WITH
CONDITIONS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. AVIAhTION NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE LOW
FOR HIGHS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ALSO TOO HIGH.

ABI 083/067 23
JCT 086/069 22
SJT 085/066 23

08

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