Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 1997

WV LOOP SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL S/WAVE HAS DEVELOPED FROM
SOUTHEAST MS SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF WITH KMOB RADAR LOOP SHOWING
TOPS ALREADY TO 30 KFT IN SOUTHEAST MS WITH CELLS DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWEST AL.  SUBSIDENCE FROM PRIOR SQUALL LINE PASSAGE HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM...CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 76 AT MEI TO 70 AT MOB
WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SPREADING FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AL.  ATMOSPHERE IS RAPIDLY RE-DESTABLIZING WITH
ADAP CURRENTLY SHOWING LI'S RANGING FROM -2 TO -7 OVER CWA.
APPROACHING H5 TROF AND POOL OF COLD H5 TEMPS DOWN TO -18C WITH LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH ALLOW FOR CONTINUING DESTABLIZATION THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WHICH IS ALREADY INDICATED IN CURRENT RADAR
TREND AND IR SAT LOOP.  WITH APPROACH OF SFC-H85 TROF LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DECREASES...BUT WITH MAINTAINED 30-35KT LOW LEVEL
JET...MILD SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A
LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ABOVE H7 AND GOOD INSTABILITY.  THINK SPC
MODERATE RISK LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THREAT TO
CONTINUE UP UNTIL FROPA AS IR AND WV LOOPS SHOW YET ANOTHER
DEVELOPING LINE OVER SW LA.

MOB 52/63/36/61 6000         PNS 55/67/38/63 6000
DTS 57/66/40/60 6000         EVR 48/60/30/60 5000 29