Tornado Warning 45, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

THE NWRN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WERE JUST PUT IN A TOR WATCH UNTIL 3 PM.
12/13Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOW THE WMFNT MOVG NWD NR A LINE FM NR BPT
TO HOU TO VCT.  WV SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE CURRENT STG TSTMS
WERE BLDG.  A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE STMS WL BACKBLD A BIT...BUT
CURRENT WATCH CONFIGURED TO ANTICIPATE THIS.  H8 DWPTS WERE AOA 10 IN
THE HILL COUNTRY WITH WND SPDS ABV 30 KTS AND THE WND PROFILE ALSO
SUGGESTIVE OF SVR/TOR THREAT.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AM LOOKS TO
BE THE NRN COUNTIES ALONG THE STG S/W MOVG QUICKLY EWD.  LATER IN
THIS AFT THE SRN COUNTIES LOOK TO BE UNDER THE GUN (SO TO SPEAK) AS
THE H3 JET NOSES INTO THE AREA...DRT ALREADY WAS AT 100 KTS...AND AS
THE WMFNT MOVS FURTHER NWD.  WL UPDATE THE SVR WX OUTLOOK FOR THESE
CONTINGENCIES FOR THIS AFT.  OTRW...TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY WITH THE
WMFNT MOVG THRU THE AREA.  GLS ALREADY IS IN THE MID 70S WITH
PALACIOS NOT FAR BEHIND.  WUD LIKE TO TWEAK TEMPS A BIT UPWARD TO SAY
THE MID TO UPR 70S IN THE IAH/GLS ZNE GRPS.  UPDATED PRELIMS BLO.
PL/40

UPDATED PRELIMS...
CLL E/B U/B 073/060 085/061 7-00 - 2ND PD DECREASING CLOUDS
NE  E/B U/B 072/059 083/059 9400
IAH E/B U/B 076/060 085/060 8300
GLS E/B U/B 077/065 082/065 6200

FOR NE-IAH-GLS...2ND PD EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
                 DERCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT

ALL ZONES 3RD PD...MOSTLY SUNNY

TXZ163-164-176>178-195>199-232115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 915 AM CDT
TIL 300 PM CDT. THE COUNTIES OF TRINITY...HOUSTON...WASHINGTON
...BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...WALKER...MADISON...MONTGOMERY
...AND SAN JACINTO ARE IN THE WATCH AREA.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST...
UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHTEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
THE REGION...WILL ALL FACTOR INTO...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IN THE WATCH AREA.

PJERSONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MONITOR THIS WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND BE READY TO
TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY MEASURES SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

TXZ163-164-176>178-195>199-232115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 915 AM CDT
TIL 300 PM CDT. THE COUNTIES OF TRINITY...HOUSTON...WASHINGTON
...BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...WALKER...MADISON...MONTGOMERY
...AND SAN JACINTO ARE IN THE WATCH AREA.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST...
UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHTEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
THE REGION...WILL ALL FACTOR INTO...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IN THE WATCH AREA.

PERSONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MONITOR THIS WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND BE READY TO
TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY MEASURES SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

TXZ179-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-511-513-240000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO GENERATE AN
ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  COLD AIR ALOFT AND VERY MOIST AIR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
JETSTREAM WILL FAVOR THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LINKED TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE
JETSTREAM PLACING THE REGION UNDER THE GUN BETWEEN 1230 AND 330 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.   LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS RATHER QUICKLY REDUCING THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT OVER AREA FROM BRENHAM TO
CONROE TO GROVETON.  OTHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS THIS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.

MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  IF THREATENING WEATHER SHOULD
DEVELOP NEAR YOUR LOCATION...YOU ARE ADVISED TO RETURN TO PORT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD EXPECT ACTIVATION AS EARLY AS
NOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

TXZ179-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-511-513-240000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO GENERATE AN
ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  COLD AIR ALOFT AND VERY MOIST AIR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
JETSTREAM WILL FAVOR THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LINKED TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE
JETSTREAM PLACING THE REGION UNDER THE GUN BETWEEN 1230 AND 330 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.   LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS RATHER QUICKLY REDUCING THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT OVER AREA FROM BRENHAM TO
CONROE TO GROVETON.  OTHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS THIS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.

MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  IF THREATENING WEATHER SHOULD
DEVELOP NEAR YOUR LOCATION...YOU ARE ADVISED TO RETURN TO PORT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD EXPECT ACTIVATION AS EARLY AS
NOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.