Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
204 PM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

STG S/W CURRENTLY MOVG THRU THE NERN PTN OF THE STATE.  SHEAR AND
HELICITY PT TWD CONT SVR/TORNADO THREAT OVR THE CWA FOR THE REST OF
THE AFT (REFERENCE LATEST TOR WARNING).  EXITING JET THAT HELPED
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVR THE RGN EARLIER HAS MOVD PAST ETX...HOWEVER THE
NEXT JET WAS NOSING INTO THE WRN PTNS OF THE AREA ON THE WV.  AS THE
S/W MOVS E THIS EVE...THE ERN COUNTIES WL HAVE A CHC FOR TSTMS (SOME
POSSIBLY SVR) INTO THE MID EVE HRS AT THE LATEST.  THEN SIG DRYING
OCCURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT THRU FRI.  THE H5 FLOW WL BE WRLY
THRU SAT EVE...AND AS THE NEXT CDFNT APRCHS RN CHCS WL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE SAT AFT AND EVE.  WITH THE JET OVHD HI CLDS CHUD STAY IN
PLACE THRU THE PD.  TEMPS SHUD BE HIER FRI BEFORE COOLING A BIT ON
SAT AS THE FNT MOVS THRU.  PL/40

PRELIMS...
CLL E/B B/E 062/085 062/081 057 1--3 2ND PD DECREASING CLOUDS
IAH E/B B/E 064/085 064/082 058 5--3 RN CHCS THIS EVE
GLS E/B B/E 065/082 068/080 062 61-3 RN CHCS THIS EVE

TXZ163-164-176>178-195>199-232115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 915 AM CDT
TIL 300 PM CDT. THE COUNTIES OF TRINITY...HOUSTON...WASHINGTON
...BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...WALKER...MADISON...MONTGOMERY
...AND SAN JACINTO ARE IN THE WATCH AREA.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST...
UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHTEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
THE REGION...WILL ALL FACTOR INTO...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IN THE WATCH AREA.

PJERSONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MONITOR THIS WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND BE READY TO
TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY MEASURES SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

TXZ163-164-176>178-195>199-232115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 915 AM CDT
TIL 300 PM CDT. THE COUNTIES OF TRINITY...HOUSTON...WASHINGTON
...BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...WALKER...MADISON...MONTGOMERY
...AND SAN JACINTO ARE IN THE WATCH AREA.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST...
UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHTEXAS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
THE REGION...WILL ALL FACTOR INTO...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IN THE WATCH AREA.

PERSONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA SHOULD MONITOR THIS WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND BE READY TO
TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY MEASURES SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

TXZ179-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-511-513-240000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO GENERATE AN
ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  COLD AIR ALOFT AND VERY MOIST AIR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
JETSTREAM WILL FAVOR THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LINKED TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE
JETSTREAM PLACING THE REGION UNDER THE GUN BETWEEN 1230 AND 330 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.   LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS RATHER QUICKLY REDUCING THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT OVER AREA FROM BRENHAM TO
CONROE TO GROVETON.  OTHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS THIS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.

MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  IF THREATENING WEATHER SHOULD
DEVELOP NEAR YOUR LOCATION...YOU ARE ADVISED TO RETURN TO PORT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD EXPECT ACTIVATION AS EARLY AS
NOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

TXZ179-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-511-513-240000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

A NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO GENERATE AN
ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  COLD AIR ALOFT AND VERY MOIST AIR
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
JETSTREAM WILL FAVOR THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ONSET OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LINKED TO A DISTURBANCE IN THE
JETSTREAM PLACING THE REGION UNDER THE GUN BETWEEN 1230 AND 330 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.   LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS RATHER QUICKLY REDUCING THE THREAT OF ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT OVER AREA FROM BRENHAM TO
CONROE TO GROVETON.  OTHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS THIS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.

MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  IF THREATENING WEATHER SHOULD
DEVELOP NEAR YOUR LOCATION...YOU ARE ADVISED TO RETURN TO PORT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD EXPECT ACTIVATION AS EARLY AS
NOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.