Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1005 AM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

KSGF 88D INDICATING STG-SVR TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS THE NRN CWA.  THIS IS
IN ASSSOCIATION WITH A WRM FNT XTNDG ROUGHLY ALG THE MO RVR ATTM.  AT H8...
LLVL JET AND WAA XTNDS FROM SWRN OK THRU CNTRL MO.  AT THE UPR LVLS...CWA
LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF UPR LVL DIFF WITH THE H3 SRN JET OVR SRN OK AND
THE NRN JET OF ARND 90KTS OVR SD.

WITH RELATIVELY CLR SKIES OVR SERN KS-SWRN MO...WOULD XPCT STG HTG TO OCCUR
BY AFTN.  WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...A GOOD LLVL JET...AN APRCHG FNT...
...AND OUTFLW BNDRYS FROM THIS MRNGS CNVCTN...WOULD XPCT SVR TSTMS TO FIRE THIS
AFTN PER SPC DISCUSSION.

WOULD NOT RECOMMEND ANY CHGS ATTM...BUT WOULD KEEP MY EYE ON MAX TEMPS IN
THE SGF/JLN GRP AS WE ARE ALREADY APRCHG THE LWR END OF THE MAX TEMP RANGE.
IF UPDTS MADE...WOULD UP POPS IN SCND PD AS TSTMS MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING.

GAEDE

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-232000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
520 AM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR
.
...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

AT DAYBREAK...THE WEATHER MAP SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EAST TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH TO NORTHWEST TEXAS.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS
PLOWS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI CREATING ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI....BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTH OF A NEVADA TO STOCKTON TO TUSCUMBIA
LINE.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BY 6 PM LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR SEDALIA TO CHANUTE KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINITY JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL GET TODAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
CLOSELY TODAY AS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.  AN UPDATED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED TIME OF
1 PM.

RIDDLE