Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILLL IT RAIN AND HOW STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE.

PROFILER DATA SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 KTS KICKING THRU OKLA
AND INTO ERN KS.  OUN/TOP 00Z SOUNDINGS AND ADAP SHOWS ATMOSPHERE STILL
CAPPED OVER THIS AREA.  DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS REMAINED ALONG AND NORTH
OF WARM FRONT OVR NW MO/SE NEBR.  WILL NEED TO WATCH RADARS CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANYTHING FORMS FURTHER SOUTH OVR SCNTRL/ERN KS.

NGM GRIDDED DATA WAS AVBL FOR VIEWING.  AFTER LOOKING AT ETA/AVN/NGM WILL
GENERALLY SIDE WITH NGM...BUT WITH RESERVATIONS.  NGM MAY NOT HAVE
HANDELED 850 MOISTURE WELL...SEEING 85H DEW PT AT OUN WAS 17 AND ETA
HAD INITIALIZED BETWEEN 15-17C.  850 PROFILERS SHOWS 40 KT JET WHICH
WOULD TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE INTO SW MO/SE KS.  THIS IS THE KEY TO HOW
TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY.  IF MOISTURE GETS DEEP ENOUGH....ENOUGH SHEAR AND
WARM ADV TO GENERATE SVR STORMS.  IF NOT...SVR ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED
TO OKLA...WHICH IS WHERE THE NGM KEEPS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY.
TIMING OF STORMS IN FCST AREA ALSO A ?.  IF NOTHING FORMS OUT TO OUR
WEST...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MAIN
ACTION ARRIVES.  THIS ESP TRUE FOR AREAS SE OF A VIH-SGF-JLN LINE.

TEMPS A BEAR TOO...ESP IF SOME SUN APPEARS.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THIS WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM FWC/FAN TODAY.

GOING WITH NGM POSITION OF FRONT HAS IT NR I-44 AT 06Z AND THRU FCST
AREA BY 12Z.

MY THOUGHTS FOR 1ST PD...
JLN/SE KS...MO CLDY. SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY  TODAY. HIGH AR 80.
SGF...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTN. HI AR 80.
UNO...PARTLY SUNNY.  A 40 PCT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.  HIGH 80-85.

SGF TE 081/057 070/052 068 06662
JLN TE 082/057 072/052 070 06662

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KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-232000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
520 AM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

THE FOLLOWING OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS   BOURBON     CHEROKEE   CRAWFORD

IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

BARRY           DALLAS        LACLEDE        OREGON         STONE
BARTON          DENT          LAWRENCE       OZARK          TANEY
BENTON          DOUGLAS       MARIES         PHELPS         TEXAS
CAMDEN          GREENE        MCDONALD       POLK           VERNON
CEDAR           HICKORY       MILLER         PULASKI        WEBSTER
CHRISTIAN       HOWELL        MORGAN         SHANNON        WRIGHT
DADE            JASPER        NEWTON         ST CLAIR
.
...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

AT DAYBREAK...THE WEATHER MAP SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EAST TO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH TO NORTHWEST TEXAS.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS
PLOWS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI CREATING ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI....BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTH OF A NEVADA TO STOCKTON TO TUSCUMBIA
LINE.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BY 6 PM LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST
TO NEAR SEDALIA TO CHANUTE KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINITY JUST HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL GET TODAY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
CLOSELY TODAY AS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.  AN UPDATED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED TIME OF
1 PM.

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