Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
426 PM CDT MON JUL 22 1996

SHORT TERM...
BEEN PLAYING "KETCHUP" ALL DAY WITH EARLY AM CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF
NEBRASKA AND WEAKER CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO. S/WV
LOBE APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS NOW HELPING TO FIRE THE PRESENT
CONVECITON.  STORMS STARTED PULSE BUT ARE GETTING MORE ORGANIZED.  WENT
WITH HIGH POPS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF CWA WITH LESSER POPS NORTH.
MODELS STILL HINT AT S/WV LATER TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS HAVING USUAL
DIFFICULTIES HANDLING WK S/WV'S IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM...
SERIES OF S/WV TROFS TO CONTINUE MVG ACRS IN NW FLOW FOR NEXT SVRL
DAYS.  SENSIBLE WX WL BE DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION MOVING
SFC BOUNDARIES ARND...CHANGING FOCUSING AREAS.  LEFT OVER CONVECTION
SHLD WARRANT AT LEAST 30 PERCENT POPS TMRW WITH LIKELY CAT TMRW NIGHT.
WITH DECENT S/WV LATE TMRW/TMRW NGT...EAST/SOUTHEAST BNDRY LYR WND AND
HIGH PW AIR...SHLD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THEN.
WENT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW GUID TEMPS AND ABOVE GUID POPS.  AVN STILL
HAVING PROBLEMS WITH POPS.

DDC 064/085 063/086 063 836    GCK 063/087 063/087 063 736
EHA 064/089 065/087 064 736    LBL 063/088 064/088 064 736
HYS 062/084 062/086 063 426    P28 069/090 065/087 066 836

HUTTON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 22 1996

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA UNTIL 2 PM WILL BE IN THE HAYS REGION AS
THUNDERSTORMS SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEFORE 6 PM WILL
BE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE SEVERAL
WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES ACROSS THAT WILL INTERACT WITH A COOL FRONT
MOVING SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES.  THE RESULT WILL BE QUITE A FEW STORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPAR>ED FOR ACTIVATION...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 PM.

HUTTON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED 2ND PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 22 1996

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA UNTIL 2 PM WILL BE IN THE HAYS REGION AS
THUNDERSTORMS SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEFORE 6 PM WILL
BE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE SEVERAL
WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES THAT WILL INTERACT WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTH
INTO KANSAS...AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES.  THE RESULT WILL BE QUITE A FEW STORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY VMANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 PM.

HUTTON

KSZ031-046-222220-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
414 PM CDT MON JUL 22 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT HAD BEEN ISSUED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND VALID UNTIL 5PM HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

HUTTON