Severe Thunderstorm Warning 341, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 AM CDT MON JUL 22 1995

SHORT TERM...
FOR TDY MAIN FCST QSTN WL BE WHERE FNT ENDS UP. ATTM AIRMASS OVR KS
TORN UP BY CNVCTN WITH NMRS OUTFLOW BNDRYS. ONCE AIRMASS RESTRATIFIES
FNT WL BE EASIER TO FIND.  PRESS RISES ACRS WY AND SD ON SFC ANAL SHWG
NXT CD AIR SURGE COMING DOWN AS UPR TROF OV GRT LAKES DEEPENS THUS WL
XPCT REINFORCEMENT OF THE QSTNRY BNDRY ACRS KS TODAY WITH FNT SINKING
FARTHER S. NGM INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS AND WL GENERALLY FOLLOW IT.
H5 ANAL SHWG GD COLD TROF ACRS MT AND ID ATTM AND THIS TIMES OUT TO
REACH KS BY LATE AFTN THUS HV INCLUDED SML LATE AFTN POPS AS NXT BOUT
OF CNVCTN BEGINS.

LONG TERM...
MAIN PBLM WL BE FNTL POSITION IN LTR PDS TOO. ALL MDLS AGREE ON DVLPG
DEEPER LONG WV TROF OVR OHIO VALLEY THUS LEAVING KS IN WRETCHED NW
FLOW AGN. XPCT MDLS WL HV TERRIBLE TIME HANDLING NW FLOW VORT AND
WITH FNT DANGLING ACRS THE RGN EITHER ACRS OR JUST S OF THE FA WL
HAVE TO KEEP SOME MNTN POPS IN ALL LTR PDS. FOCUS ALG AND N OF FNT
WITH E-SE SFC WNDS BY LATE AFTN SHD COMBINE WITH ARRIVAL OF UPSTRM
H5 CD TROF TO FORCE CNVCTN AND MAY DVLP FAVORABLE SHR PROFILE FOR
SOME SVR AND MAY FORCE SPC TO BUMP UP SVR OUTLOOK FOR TNGT. ONCE
MRNG RAOBS ARE IN...MAY HV TO BUMP UP POPS FOR TNGT PD OF FCST TOO.
COLD TSTM OUTFLOW SHD AID IN PUSHING FNT FARTHER S SO HV GONE WITH
COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPS IN LTR PDS.

DDC 091/066 086/064 088 242
GCK 093/064 090/063 091 242
EHA 095/064 094/065 096 133
LBL 094/065 094/065 096 133
HYS 086/065 084/062 086 232
P28 098/070 094/070 094 233

JOHNSON/SEARCY

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 22 1996

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA UNTIL 2 PM WILL BE IN THE HAYS REGION AS
THUNDERSTORMS SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEFORE 6 PM WILL
BE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE SEVERAL
WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES ACROSS THAT WILL INTERACT WITH A COOL FRONT
MOVING SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES.  THE RESULT WILL BE QUITE A FEW STORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPAR>ED FOR ACTIVATION...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 PM.

HUTTON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-230600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED 2ND PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 AM CDT MON JUL 22 1996

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA UNTIL 2 PM WILL BE IN THE HAYS REGION AS
THUNDERSTORMS SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEFORE 6 PM WILL
BE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN.

VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE ARE SEVERAL
WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES THAT WILL INTERACT WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTH
INTO KANSAS...AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES.  THE RESULT WILL BE QUITE A FEW STORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY VMANAGERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION...
ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 PM.

HUTTON