Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 1995

CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ANTICIPATING HOW MUCH CONVECTION WL
DVLP ALG BNDRY ACRS NWRN KS AND HOW LONG IT WL LIVE TNGT. OTHER
EXCITING ISSUES TO CONSIDER INCLUDE...HOW QUICKLY THE CDFNT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NERN SD TO E CNTRL WY AT 300 PM WL PROGRESS SWD ACRS KS
AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WL PERSIST BHND THE BNDRY IN THE UPSLOPE FLO.
ALL OF THESE HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT UPON THE TEMPERATURE FCST. ALSO
OF CONCERN IS HOW MUCH PCPN WL ACCOMPANY THE SERIES OF MINOR WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLO DVLPG OVR THE CNTRL US. TIMING IS...AS USUAL...
CHALLENGING.

SHORT TERM...
WK LO PRESSURE HAS PERSISTED OVR NWRN KS THIS AFTN ALG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE BTWN THE REGION OF STRATUS OVR NRN AND ERN KS AND THE VERY WARM
AIR OVR SWRN KS. CONVERGENCE ALG A TROF LN EXTDG SWWD FM THE CYCLONE TO
SERN CO WAS BEGINNING TO SPROUT SOME TCU AT 300 PM. MID LVLS OF THE ATM
ARE EXTRMLY UNSTABLE WTH NRLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FM H7 TO H5...AND
EXTRMLY MOIST AND WARM LO LVL AIR IS AVBL TO SUPPORT WHATEVER CONVECTION
DOES BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. PERSISTENT AREA OF AC/ACCAS HAS CONTINUED
OVR ERN CO/W CNTRL KS IN ADVANCE OF A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE EVIDENT
ON PROFILERS OVR ERN CO. WTH TEMPS ARND 100 OVR SWRN KS...EXPC THAT CONTD
CONVERGENCE ALG THE BNDRY WL SUPPORT SOME TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN. A REGION
OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS OF THE ATM WL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STG OUTFLOW WINDS AND DVLPMT OF A DECENT MESOHIGH BHND
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH MAY DVLP. IF LO LVL WNDS WERE
A LTL STGR...CONVECTION COULD LAST FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS. GIVEN THE EXISTING
FLO REGIME...HOWEVER...EXPC THAT IT WL DMSH A FEW HRS AFT SS. OUTFLOW FM
THE TSTMS WL SUPPORT SEWD PROGRESSION OF THE WK BNDRY OVR NWRN KS...AND
WL TREND TWRD THE FASTER RGL SOLN ON FRONTAL MOTION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL
BE A LTL LWR THAN LAST NGT...PSBLY A LOT LWR IF THE CONVECTION BCMS MORE
ORGANIZED THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM...
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN HANDLING THE MOTION OF THE BNDRY OVR NWRN KS WTH
ETA/AVN SOLNS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE RGL. EXPC THAT THE BNDRY WL LOSE
ITS MOMENTUM AFT SR MONDAY AND GO NRLY STNY OVR THE SERN ZONES MON MRNG.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A SHORT WAVE APCHG WRN ID
WHICH MAY REACH WRN KS BY LATE MON AS FCST BY THE AVN. THIS WAVE SHUD
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALG THE FRONT AS WELL AS SOME POST-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY. MID LVLS OF THE ATM GRDLY WL COOL MON...AND LO LVL
MOISTURE WL RMN FAIRLY RICH BHND THE FRONT. THUS...WL MAINTAIN CHC
CATEGORY POPS MOST AREAS EVEN BHND THE INITIAL WND SHFT.

CONTD ELY LO LVL FLO AND MINOR WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLO ALOFT
SUGGEST THAT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS
WL CONT FOR THE NXT FEW DAYS. THE NXT IN THE SERIES OF WAVES SHUD
APCH SWRN KS ON TUE AND ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLO AND ISENTROPIC LFT OVR
THE FRONTAL BNDRY. LWRD TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES ON TUE IN ANTICIPATION
OF GREATER CLOUD COVER. IF THE WAVE IS STGR THAN INDICATED ON THE
MODELS...CLOUD COVER COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE EXTENSIVE...AND
TEMPS COULD BE TEN DEGREES LWR THAN CURRENTLY FCST IN TUE.

FIRST >GUESS TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 69/90/66/85  333   GCK 68/89/65/85 333   EHA 64/86/64/83 322
LBL 69/90/66/86  333   HYS 67/87/64/86 423   P28 73/96/70/89 154

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