EF2 tornado, Erath to Abbott, Texas, April 26, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1243 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

Thunderstorms are ongoing primarily along the I-35 corridor at
this hour and will continue to spread east into the afternoon. The
environment is quite unstable with steep mid level lapse rates
supporting a large hail and damaging wind threat. In addition, low
level winds are quite strong, although flow has veered just a bit
which may be limiting the tornado potential, particularly with the
supercell north of Waco at this time. For the remainder of the
afternoon, PoPs will remain highest along and east of I-35 with a
continued severe weather threat. There is a low chance that
additional storms could redevelop farther west along a dryline,
but this potential is generally around 20% at this time. Any
additional storms that develop will have a potential to be severe
with all modes of severe weather possible.

Coverage of storms should decrease late this evening as the
initial shortwave pulls off to the northeast.

Saturday should feature another warm and humid airmass in place
across the region, but thunderstorms should hold off for most of
the day until another upstream shortwave spreads strong forcing
for ascent across a sharp dryline. Thunderstorms should develop by
late afternoon/evening off to our northwest and gradually spread
across North Texas through the overnight hours into early Sunday
morning. Similar to the last few days, all modes of severe weather
will be possible, including the potential for a few tornadoes. In
addition to the severe threat, slow moving thunderstorms could
produce substantial amounts of rain through early Sunday. Isolated
totals of 4-6 inches can be expected. A Flood Watch will be issued
this afternoon for parts of North Texas. A Wind Advisory will also
likely be required for Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/
/Saturday Onward/

Large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes and flash flooding
will all be a threat Saturday and Sunday as 2 rounds of storms
are possible.

Round 1 - Saturday Afternoon

The severe weather threat during the day on Saturday will remain
conditional, and it's quite possible we see no storms until the
evening hours as the main trough inches closer to our region (more
on that below).

The thermodynamic and kinematic environment atop our region
suggests there will be a threat for severe weather, **should
storms develop**. With a highly unstable atmosphere, steep mid-
level lapse rates and sufficient effective shear, any storm would
likely exhibit rotating updrafts that could produce large hail,
damaging winds and even a few tornadoes.

There continues to be some question as to the strength of the
capping inversion, especially in the afternoon. Should the cap
remain fairly strong, storms are unlikely to develop. However, a
weak or non-existent cap would allow for updrafts to quickly
strengthen should there be a source of lift.

With the strongest forcing for ascent still across NM and far W
Texas during the day, we'll have to rely on daytime heating for
any storm development. More low-level clouds would likely to
delay or inhibit afternoon convection. The inverse is also
true...breaks in the clouds would increase the potential for
storms to develop.

If storms develop, any convection that persists into the late
afternoon/evening hours will see an heightened potential for a
tornado or two. We'll have to continue to monitor the higher
resolution guidance as confidence in afternoon convection remains
low.

Round 2 - Saturday Night - Sunday

Confidence in thunderstorms impacting North and Central Texas
Saturday night is high as strong forcing for ascent moves closer
to our region. With increasing southerly flow, moisture content
will be on the rise overnight. A highly unstable atmosphere,
strong low-level shear and increasing forcing for ascent will lead
to the development of severe thunderstorms along a dryline. With
the dryline just west of our region around sunset, convective
initiation is likely to occur just outside of our area. This
activity, although initially supercellular in nature, will merge
in to a line of storms that will sweep eastward across much of our
region. The line of storms is likely to be N-S oriented, moving
eastward through the early Sunday morning hours. Damaging wind
gusts and large hail would be the main hazards. However, with 40+
knots of 0-3km shear in place, there will be a low threat for
QLCS tornadoes. Any segment of the line that gains a more NW-SE
orientation will be able to maximize the available vorticity,
increasing the potential for a quick spin-up.

Additionally, there will be a risk for heavy rainfall across
portions of North Texas. The risk for flash flooding will be
highest along the Red River, where a few locations may pick up as
much 3+ inches of rain in a short period of time. Given the
nocturnal nature of this event, it's important to pay attention
while driving as flooded roads are much harder to spot at night.
Remember, if you encounter a flooded road, Turn Around, Don't
Drown.

By sunrise Sunday, the I-35 corridor is likely going to be
experiencing the line of thunderstorms. There will be a continued
threat for large hail and damaging winds. By this time, slightly
weaker low-level shear will be in place, slightly reducing the
tornado potential. Nonetheless, an isolated embedded tornado
cannot be ruled out.

The dryline will stall before exiting our region, then retreat
northwestward through the day. This will keep North and Central
Texas in a moist environment with additional storm chances in the
afternoon. The severe weather threat Sunday will mainly be along
and east of I-35, where instability will be the highest.

Monday Onward

Deep southerly flow will continue across the region, keeping the
potential for diurnally driven convection alive Monday through
Wednesday. Compact impulses will be moving overhead, leading to
occasional showers and storms. Weak shear each day will likely
keep the severe weather threat low, however, a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out. The main hazards would be small hail and
gusty winds.

There remains fairly good agreement that a cold front will be
pushing southward across the Plains, arriving to our region
Thursday afternoon. With plenty of moisture expected, we'll have
to monitor the parameter space as yet another severe day is
possible. Details in timing/hazards will become more clear in the
coming days.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms are moving through the D10 airspace at this time and
will gradually spread eastward through the afternoon. Will include
a TEMPO for TSRA through 20Z at all Metroplex airports and Waco.
This activity should move east into the afternoon with VFR
prevailing. Another round of MVFR will develop after dark tonight
and persist through mid-Saturday morning. Additional thunderstorms
are expected to develop overnight Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  70  82  65  77 /  70   5  20  90  70
Waco                80  70  81  65  74 /  80  20  20  90  80
Paris               76  68  81  65  74 /  70  10  20  90  90
Denton              84  68  81  62  77 /  50   5  20 100  70
McKinney            79  69  81  65  75 /  70   5  20  90  80
Dallas              80  70  83  65  76 /  70   5  20  90  80
Terrell             78  70  82  67  74 /  90  10  20  90  80
Corsicana           77  72  85  69  76 /  90  20  20  80  80
Temple              80  70  83  67  75 /  80  20  20  90  80
Mineral Wells       89  68  81  60  80 /  30   0  30  90  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1146 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon and
evening hours mainly along the I-35 corridor and will move into East
Texas into the evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will all be possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The severe threat will increase once again late Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning across North Texas as another round of
thunderstorms is expected. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may
cause flash flooding across parts of North Texas.

There will be a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and
evening as well, mainly east of I-35. A few of these storms could be
severe with damaging winds and large hail.

On and off storm chances will continue through the weekend. Lightning
and brief heavy rain will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Timely reports of severe weather and flooding will be appreciated
through the weekend.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 AM     Hail             Blue Mound              32.85N 97.34W
04/26/2024  M0.75 Inch       Tarrant            TX   Trained Spotter

            Penny size hail in Blue Mound.

&&

MAS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     Hail             2 NE Kennedale          32.77N 97.31W
04/26/2024  M1.75 Inch       Tarrant            TX   Trained Spotter

            Golf ball hail reported at Little Rd and I20
            in SE Fort Worth.

&&

MAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1222 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     Hail             2 NE Arlington          32.71N 97.11W
04/26/2024  E1.75 Inch       Tarrant            TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

&&

MAS