EF0 tornado, Waverly, Nebraska, April 26, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
106 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms Today and Saturday with strong tornadoes,
  large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding possible.
  Greater flooding threat on Saturday night.

- Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday as well, to a lesser
  degree, but brief tornadoes possible as well.

- Storms wrap up by Monday, with warmer temperatures arriving
  next week. Another round of showers and storms possible
  Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Skies are clearing from the southeast this afternoon as storms
are starting to develop near the center of the surface low
across central Nebraska. There's already one supercell that has
developed west of Grand Island. We're watching towering Cu start
to develop across north-central Kansas and south-central
Nebraska out near Hebron which will be our line of strong to
severe thunderstorms for this afternoon. We have a primed
environment with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1
km helicity that increases to 200+ across southeast Nebraska.
Seems like this could be a day where any individual storm will
be capable of producing a strong tornado. Storms will be moving
into the Lincoln area around 3 PM, the Omaha Metro around 4 - 5
PM, making it to the Missouri River around 5 PM, and out of our
area by around 7 to 8 PM. Some of the CAMS show the potential
for an additional storm or two trailing behind the main line,
but the severe window for each area will center mostly around
the main line of storms.

Once storms clear the area this evening, we'll see clearing
skies across most of our area. We will have low clouds spread
south out of South Dakota overnight tonight into Norfolk, but
probably won't make it as far south as Omaha.

Saturday morning we'll be between systems, dry with light
winds. We'll see a warm front lift north during the afternoon
with the approach of our next low pressure system. We'll see
initial storm development along and ahead of the warm front
around 6-7 PM with several rounds of storms developing and
training along the warm front which stalls somewhere along I-80.
With training storms, we add the significant potential for flash
flooding in addition to large hail, strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds Saturday evening, with the significant severe
threat possibly not ending until after midnight.

We'll see a third chance for severe storms on Sunday as the
center of the surface low passes over our area Sunday afternoon.
This will be a lower threat, but should not be overlooked. This
will be similar to what we saw about ten days ago where we had a
couple brief tornadoes that popped up from low-topped supercells
that developed in a similar environment as the surface low again
passed right over our area. We could also see hail up to
quarter-size and damaging winds up to 60 mph. All storms should
finally exit our area after midnight Monday.

For the extended forecast, we just don't have time right now to
do an in-depth analysis beyond day three. See previous
discussion below:

We finally receive a break from the active weather pattern on
Monday and into early next week, with just a few minor showers
and storms possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will
generally top out in the 70s next week, with a few locations
reaching the low 80s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

IFR cigs this morning are starting to clear from the southwest
this morning as the low pressure center starts its approach.
Expect a period of improvement to VFR conditions with BKN or SCT
cigs around 3500-4500 ft about an hour or two before
thunderstorms move through the terminals this afternoon. Models
suggest there could be one or two lines of thunderstorms that
roll through. Went ahead and put one line in the TAFs, but will
adjust to factor in for a second line of storms if it develops
just behind the first. Storms should be east of the terminals by
00Z this evening, with clearing skies and winds turning
westerly or southwesterly. Low clouds will spread south out of
South Dakota into KOFK late in the TAF period around 04-06Z
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions through the end of the TAF
period. As of right now it does not appear they will get far
enough south to impact KOMA or KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy/KG
AVIATION...McCoy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
122 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-270830-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
122 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe weather is likely across much of eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa this afternoon and evening. All hazards are
possible, including large hail up to three inches in diameter, a
few strong tornadoes, and thunderstorm winds up to 70 mph. Much
of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa are in an enhanced risk of
severe weather. The best timeframe for severe storms should be
from 2 pm through 8 pm. Be prepared to implement severe weather
safety plans this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Another round of severe weather is likely late Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night, especially along and south of I-80. Again,
all severe hazards are possible, including hail up to three inches
in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and thunderstorm winds up to
70 mph.

Severe weather is again possible Sunday afternoon into evening in
parts of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Hail up to
quarter size and thunderstorm winds up to 60 mph are the main
hazards, but an isolated weak tornado couldn't be ruled out as
well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be required on both this afternoon
and evening and Saturday evening.

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