Tornadoes · United States · North Dakota · 2003

F0 tornado, Cavalier County, North Dakota, July 14, 2003

This F0 tornado ran 0.5 miles across Cavalier County on July 14, 2003, touching down at 4:23 PM CDT and reaching 25 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. F040 to 72 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. F173 to 112 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. F2113 to 157 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. F3158 to 206 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. F4207 to 260 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. F5261 to 318 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
F0
Date
July 14, 2003
Touchdown
4:23 PM CDT (21:23 UTC)
Path length
0.5 miles (0.8 km)
Path width
25 yards (23 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Cavalier County
Touchdown point
48.750, -98.130
Lift-off point
48.750, -98.130
Record number
888

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
19:14 UTC20:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGF
21:26 UTC22:00 UTCTornado WarningFGF
01:08 UTC01:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGF

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 20:10 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Jul 14, 3:30 PM CDT, 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 3:30 PM CDT, 53 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARRIVING INTO NORTHEAST ND HAVE HAD
SOME SEVERE EVENTS ALREADY. ETA SHOWS THE RELATED THETA-E RIDGE...
SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG VORTICITY LOBE WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE FOR SOUTHEAST
ND AND WESTCENTRAL MN SO NO TORNADO WATCH EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS
FAR/FFM. BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS INTO
EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS STRONG ON WED WITH SURFACE LOW
OVER WESTERN SD AND NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH OF FAR. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR FAR AND GFS SHOWS STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LIFTED INDEXES REACH -6C BY 18Z BUT FALL OFF LATER WHILE
GFS REACHES -5C NEAR DVL LATE. FIGURE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IS
SOUTH PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL JET COUPLET AND WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS THERE (WHERE WE ALREADY SHOW CHANCE PROBABILITY).

12Z GFS RETURNED TO ITS 00Z SOLUTION REGARDING A DEVELOPING MCS ON
ND/CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WITH ALMOST IDENTICAL QPF...POSITION
AND TIMING. ETA DOESN/T DEVELOP IT OR ASSOCIATED UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
NEARLY AS MUCH THOUGH WOULD TRUST GFS ON THIS ISSUE MORE.

EXTENDED...FRI-SUN DRY AS HOT RIDGE OVER LOWER CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S.
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BUILT ENOUGH TO SHOVE UPPER JET WELL INTO
CANADA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH THE 12Z GFS SHOWS AT 120 HOURS (SAT
12Z) READY TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER AREA LOOKS OMINOUS. THINK THE
TROUGH WILL DIG A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD AT THAT TIME.

.FGF...TORNADO WATCH #744 UNTIL 8PM CDT FOR NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

GV
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 6:31 AM CDT, 9 hours 52 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-141430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
631 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EXITING EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

VOELKER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
233 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    6 E ROCKLAKE              ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   TOWNER

JH
Local storm report, Jul 14, 3:35 PM CDT, 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
335 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0321 PM    PEMBINA                   ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   PEMBINA

BB
Local storm report, Jul 14, 3:52 PM CDT, 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
352 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM    PEMBINA                   ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   PEMBINA
Local storm report, Jul 14, 4:14 PM CDT, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
414 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    LANCASTER                 MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   KITTSON

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), 12:00Z

9.4 hours before the tornado, 292 km from the path. July 14, 2003.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2003-07-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -70607, lifted condensation level 1637 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2003-07-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -252 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 56 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-70607 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1637 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-252 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
351 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4
0-3 km lapse rate
4.4 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), 00:00Z

2.6 hours after it, 292 km from the path. July 15, 2003.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2003-07-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -74497, lifted condensation level 2616 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2003-07-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 27 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 69 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-74497 J/kg
Surface CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2616 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
69 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
8.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Hallock (HCO), 87 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
19:38 UTC82.462.6250° 16 kt231004.7
19:57 UTC82.462.6250° 17 kt221004.4
20:00 UTC82.462.6250° 17 kt221004.4
20:17 UTC82.462.6260° 19 kt251004.7
20:37 UTC80.662.6270° 18 kt241005.4
20:57 UTC69.860.8340° 19 kt331006.4TS
21:00 UTC340° 19 kt33
21:17 UTC64.459360° 15 kt221006.8-TSRA
21:37 UTC62.657.220° 10 kt1006.8TSRA
21:58 UTC69.862.660° 5 kt1006.8
22:00 UTC69.862.660° 5 kt1006.8
22:17 UTC69.862.60° 0 kt1007.1
22:37 UTC69.862.6310° 5 kt1007.5
22:57 UTC71.664.4300° 8 kt1007.8
23:00 UTC71.664.4300° 8 kt1007.8
23:17 UTC71.664.4330° 10 kt1007.8

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 148 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 21:20 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2003 tornado in North DakotaEvery tornado in North Dakota since 1950Warnings in force in North Dakota nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of July 14, 2003

16 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
July 149:11 AM EDTF0Somerset, MD1.050
July 143:10 PM CDTF1Pembina, ND5.550
July 143:30 PM CDTF0Pembina, ND to MN3.925
July 146:05 PM CDTF0Cottonwood, MN0.150
July 147:26 PM CDTF0Saint Louis, MN5.050
July 147:30 PM CDTF0Washington, MN0.125
July 147:30 PM CDTF0Brown, MN2.050
July 147:52 PM CDTF0Brown, MN0.125
July 148:20 PM CDTF2Blue Earth, MN0.550$100,000
July 148:22 PM CDTF1Blue Earth, MN2.550
July 148:27 PM CDTF1Blue Earth, MN3.0220$500,000
July 148:34 PM CDTF1Blue Earth, MN2.0100$100,000
July 148:43 PM CDTF2Blue Earth, MN1.5220$2.0 million
July 148:55 PM CDTF0Waseca, MN0.150
July 149:08 PM CDTF0Emmet, IA0.125
July 149:15 PM CDTF0Hancock, IA0.230

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.