Tornadoes · United States · North Dakota · 2003
F1 tornado, Neche to Pembina, North Dakota, July 14, 2003
From Neche to Pembina, this F1 tornado ran 5.5 miles across Pembina County on July 14, 2003, touching down at 3:10 PM CDT and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody.
The rating scale
Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.
F040 to 72 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
F173 to 112 mphthis tornado
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
F2113 to 157 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
F3158 to 206 mph
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
F4207 to 260 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
F5261 to 318 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.
The record
- Rating
- F1
- Date
- July 14, 2003
- Touchdown
- 3:10 PM CDT (20:10 UTC)
- Path length
- 5.5 miles (8.8 km)
- Path width
- 50 yards (46 m)
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- County
- Pembina County
- Touchdown point
- 48.980, -97.530
- Lift-off point
- 48.950, -97.430
- Record number
- 280
What the Weather Service recorded
This tornado originated near Altona, Manitoba, Canada. The tornado tracked across the international border northeast of Neche, and continued southeast for about a mile across a wheat field at F1 intensity. The tornado skipped along for another 4.5 miles at F0 intensity.
A tornado travelled from just west of Pembina in Pembina county, to the Red River about 2 miles south southeast of Pembina, then continued on for about one-half of a mile in Kittson county southeast of St. Vincent.
From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.
The forecast that day
The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 20:10 UTC.
SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Jul 14, 9:35 AM CDT, 5 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 9:35 AM CDT, 5 hours 35 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 935 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003 SURFACE TROUGH STILL SITTING IN CENTRAL ND/SD AS MESOETA REDEVELOPS THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE JUST WEST OF REDEVLOPING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF ND. BIS 12Z SOUNDING IS STILL JUICY UP TO 750 MB WHERE THE WIND SHEARS TO WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET CORE APPROACHING FROM WEST/NORTHWEST AND ITS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PUT NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN UNDER THE GUN THROUGH MID-DAY FOR HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDER THOUGH WOULDN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE ANYWHERE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING IS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. ZONES/GRIDS LOOK WELL HANDLED ATTM AND WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND MIGHT NOT UPDATE ZONES EXCEPT TO MAKE WORDING MORE CURRENT...WILL NOT REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS APPARENTLY NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AFTER A WHOLE NIGHT OF CONVECTION...BUT COULDN/T DEAL WITH ANOTHER ROUND. ISOLATED HEAVY CELLS MAY BE A PROBLEM. WILL NEED TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THUNDER POTENTIAL ON WED/THU ALSO IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SPC SHOWS MOST OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK THOUGH OUR POPS CONFINE THUNDER TO SOUTHERN PORTION. GFS HAS TRIED TO DEVELOP AN MCS ON THU TO TRACK ALONG CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER... LASTEST RUN WEAKENS IT AND TURNS IT SOUTHEAST UPON ARRIVAL. MOISTURE SOURCE APPEARS TO DEPEND LARGELY ON DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN CO/WY TO GIVE IT A BOOST NORTHWARD. .FGF...NONE. GV
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 6:31 AM CDT, 8 hours 39 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-141430- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 631 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003 ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EXITING EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE) VOELKER
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:33 PM CDT, 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
233 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0220 PM 6 E ROCKLAKE ND 1.00 INCH HAIL
07/14/03 TOWNER
JHThe air that afternoon
The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.
International Fa, MN (KINL), 12:00Z
8.2 hours before the tornado, 309 km from the path. July 14, 2003.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 93 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -353 J/kg
- Surface CAPE
- 81 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1491 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 116 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
- 0-3 km lapse rate
- 4.0 K/km
The surface observations
Hallock (HCO), 46 km from the path, in the two hours either side.
| Time (UTC) | Temp (°F) | Dew point (°F) | Wind | Gust (kt) | Pressure (mb) | Weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 UTC |
From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 160 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 20:10 UTC.
Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track
Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.
This ground now
The live radar over the trackEvery 2003 tornado in North DakotaEvery tornado in North Dakota since 1950Warnings in force in North Dakota nowThe forecast where you are
The other tornadoes of July 14, 2003
16 more were confirmed in the United States that day.
| Date | Time | Rating | Where | Path (mi) | Width (yd) | Deaths | Injuries | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 14 | 9:11 AM EDT | F0 | Somerset, MD | 1.0 | 50 | |||
| July 14 | 3:30 PM CDT | F0 | Pembina, ND to MN | 3.9 | 25 | |||
| July 14 | 4:23 PM CDT | F0 | Cavalier, ND | 0.5 | 25 | |||
| July 14 | 6:05 PM CDT | F0 | Cottonwood, MN | 0.1 | 50 | |||
| July 14 | 7:26 PM CDT | F0 | Saint Louis, MN | 5.0 | 50 | |||
| July 14 | 7:30 PM CDT | F0 | Washington, MN | 0.1 | 25 | |||
| July 14 | 7:30 PM CDT | F0 | Brown, MN | 2.0 | 50 | |||
| July 14 | 7:52 PM CDT | F0 | Brown, MN | 0.1 | 25 | |||
| July 14 | 8:20 PM CDT | F2 | Blue Earth, MN | 0.5 | 50 | $100,000 | ||
| July 14 | 8:22 PM CDT | F1 | Blue Earth, MN | 2.5 | 50 | |||
| July 14 | 8:27 PM CDT | F1 | Blue Earth, MN | 3.0 | 220 | $500,000 | ||
| July 14 | 8:34 PM CDT | F1 | Blue Earth, MN | 2.0 | 100 | $100,000 | ||
| July 14 | 8:43 PM CDT | F2 | Blue Earth, MN | 1.5 | 220 | $2.0 million | ||
| July 14 | 8:55 PM CDT | F0 | Waseca, MN | 0.1 | 50 | |||
| July 14 | 9:08 PM CDT | F0 | Emmet, IA | 0.1 | 25 | |||
| July 14 | 9:15 PM CDT | F0 | Hancock, IA | 0.2 | 30 |
What this means
Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.
Sources
NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.