EF2 tornado, Grafton to Exeter, Nebraska, May 11, 2014

1. EF065 to 85 mph

   Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

2. EF186 to 110 mph

   Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

3. EF2111 to 135 mphthis tornado

   Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

4. EF3136 to 165 mph

   Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

5. EF4166 to 200 mph

   Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

6. EF5over 200 mph

   Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

7. Unrated

   The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

Rating

EF2

Date

May 11, 2014

Touchdown

4:25 PM CDT (21:25 UTC)

Lifted

4:41 PM CDT (21:41 UTC)

On the ground

16 minutes

Path length

9.4 miles (15.1 km)

Path width

750 yards (686 m)

Deaths

0

Injuries

0

Property damage

$3.5 million

County

Fillmore County

Touchdown point

40.664, -97.731

Lift-off point

40.692, -97.556

Record number

1405111525-02

239 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS ABR and NWS GID and NWS OAX and NWS OAXx, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF3. The highest wind the damage implies is 152 mph.

• roof of structure appears damaged. can't access. se edge Cwa.
• east side of road 25 in Oma Cwa.
• roof shinles pulled off. some tin spread into field to east.
• very large power lines across road. at least 4 towers snapped 100 yards apart.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

Multiple thunderstorms formed along and southeast of a line from Red Cloud to York on this Sunday afternoon. However, most of the severe weather was produced by a single supercell. This was the first and most intense storm of the day and it formed over Webster county around 2:30 p.m. CDT. This storm took full advantage of an extremely favorable environment, quickly becoming severe and producing at least one brief, weak tornado just southwest of Glenvil. The storm continued northeast producing several more tornadoes, two of which resulted in a maximum damage rating of EF-3. One of these tornadoes occurred over Clay and Fillmore counties and the other subsequently occurred over Fillmore and Seward counties. The first of these EF-3 tornadoes was on the ground for nearly 22 miles. Damage surveys, photos and video confirmed that this storm produced at least 6 other tornadoes, 3 rated EF-0, 2 rated EF-1 and 1 rated EF-2. One of the EF-1 tornadoes was anticyclonic and touched down just north of Fairmont. To the left of these tornadoes, severe hail was common. The largest hail observed was the size of tennis balls in Glenvil. Large swaths of damaging winds, from the rear flank downdraft, accompanied the tornadoes to their south and southeast. Tornado and wind damage was extensive to trees, power poles, farm buildings including grain bins, and a few homes. Over 200 irrigation pivots were overturned and/or twisted. Multiple farmsteads also endured damage, including the loss of a new machine shed. By 5:30 p.m., this storm had moved into eastern Nebraska. Other storms developed in its wake, but produced no severe weather. ||A very long surface front extended from New England, through the Ohio Valley, across the Central Plains and into the Desert Southwest. Portions of this front were stationary while others were being modulated by several waves of low pressure. The front lifted northward to the Kansas-Nebraska border by daybreak. One low ejected out of Colorado and moved east along the front through northern Kansas during the day. This supercell formed just northeast of this low on the immediate cool side of the front. The upper-level flow featured an amplified western trough and eastern ridge. A closed low was at the base of the trough over the Four Corners region. These storms initiated with the aid of a shortwave trough that ejected into the Central Plains ahead of this low. A strong 100 knot jet streak was at the base of the trough at 300 mb, placing the Central Plains in the favorable left front quadrant. An expansive stratus cloud deck, on the cool side of the front, resulted in a substantial temperature gradient across the front, with afternoon temperatures in the 40s and 50s across much of Nebraska to the mid 80s and low 90s over northern Kansas. This resulted in a tight instability gradient with MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg right along the front. Winds were strong throughout the column. The ejecting low pressure center, combined with the front, resulted in significantly backed winds, enhancing low-level shear. 0-1 km SRH was roughly 300 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH 400-600 m2/s2. The environment was very favorable for severe storms and tornadoes.

This is the continuation of the EF3 tornado that started in Clay County northwest of Fairfield.||This tornado was reported initially as a multi-vortex tornado for several miles before taking on a more traditional look south of Saronville, where it was described as a wedge tornado. Based upon reports and video, it appears the entire mesocyclone of the storm was near ground level southwest of Sutton. It was one of the strongest tornado of the day in south central Nebraska, rated an EF3 with the peak wind estimated to be 150 MPH. Rear flank downdraft winds resulted in damage on the south side of the tornado track and in addition to the damage to Sutton itself, areas east of Clay Center, southwest of Sutton through northwest of Grafton were affected. Power poles and trees were damaged or snapped, irrigation pivots were overturned, and a few homes and outbuildings suffered damage.||Damage from this tornado was first noted north of Fairfield, where large tree limbs were knocked down and power poles broken. The tornado shifted mainly east across Highway 14 south of Clay Center, with additional tree damage as well as irrigation pivots overturned. It then started to move to the northeast, crossing Highway 41 east of Clay Center and Highway 6 a few miles west of Sutton, but powerful rear flank downdraft winds of 100 mph hammered Sutton and areas south-southwest of town, causing widespread property damage. Moving in between Saronville and Sutton, the tornado then started a more east-northeast path, crossing Road 6 north of Sutton before dissipating approximately 5 miles northeast of town.||As the tornado approached and crossed Highway 6 it intensified to it strongest point. Damage peaked a few miles north of Sutton, where the EF-3 rating was assigned, resulting from the destruction of a home. Elsewhere along the path, a few other homes sustained less significant damage than the one north of Sutton, and a number of other outbuildings and grain bins were also damaged or destroyed. Many trees were damaged, destroyed or contained debris (mainly from destroyed grain bins), irrigation pivots were overturned and power poles broken.

This tornado traveled rural areas of northern Fillmore County, bumping the York County line along the way. It touched down a few miles north-northwest of Grafton and lifted a few miles north-northeast of Fairmont. One home suffered damage when part of the roof was torn away, while another older home was pushed approximately 30 feet off of its foundation. There was widespread power pole and tree damage, with some trees containing debris from grain bins, and a number of irrigation pivots were overturned. The peak wind with this tornado was estimated to be 120 MPH. South of the main tornado track, strong rear flank downdraft winds resulted in additional power pole and irrigation pivot damage, and an outbuilding suffered damage near Highway 81 north of Fairmont.

This tornado traveled rural areas and was witnessed by several storm chasers and experienced meteorologists. Video evidence, eyewitness accounts, radar imagey and even some of the damage confirm this tornado rotated anti-cyclonically. Damage along the path of the tornado included a grain bin and an old outbuilding being pushed off of their foundations, along with a roof partially blown off of another outbuilding. Numerous irrigation pivots were overturned, and there was plenty of tree damage. There was a home with minor roof damage. The peak wind with this tornado was estimated to be 90 MPH.

This tornado was the second to be rated an EF3 that affected south central Nebraska, starting in far northern Fillmore County before traversing a portion of York County and passing north of Cordova in Seward County. Damage along the track in Fillmore County was widespread, including one home which was totally destroyed. All 6 occupants took shelter in the basement. Another home suffered less significant damage, but outbuildings on the same property were destroyed. Also along the path of this tornado, and to the south of the path where rear flank downdraft winds occurred, numerous irrigation pivots were overturned, power poles were broken as well as trees and grain bins either damaged or destroyed. The strongest and widest time of this tornado occurred in Seward County, with a peak wind estimated to be 140 MPH and a maximum width of 2,640 yards, or 1.5 miles.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Moderate Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 19:59 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at May 11, 3:53 PM CDT, 32 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH NEAR THE KANSAS/
NEBRASKA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT
THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BUT SOME CUMULUS HAVE BEEN FORMING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE A VERY DISTINCT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE NORTH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WHILE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WAS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATIONS FOR WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL THE MOST LIKELY AREA...BUT WILL
IT BE FURTHER NORTHWEST OR FURTHER SOUTHEAST? THE LATEST SATELLITE
SHOWS COME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CURRENT LOCATION WHICH IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY COULD LIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AS THE STORMS DEVELOP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING AND WILL HELP TO GET THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING BETTER. THE
HRRR AND 4KM WRF BOTH IMPLY THERE WILL BE SOME BACK BUILDING WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY LATE THIS EVENING
THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...BUT
THUNDER IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE
WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB CONTINUE TO
COOL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MID DAY ON MONDAY THE TEMPERATURES
AT 850MB FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE AROUND ZERO TO -2 DEG C.
HAVE CONTINUED THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO
WATCH TEMPERATURES TO SEE IF THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXED INTO THE
AREA IN THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THERE IS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

A SEASONABLY COOL WEEK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP TO THE REGION. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...COULD SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. WEAK RIDGING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURE BY NEXT
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

BEST CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME RAIN AROUND AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS WILL BE LOWER DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH LIFR
FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
122030-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH
OR GREATER AS WELL AS TORNADOES. THESE INTENSE STORMS FAVOR
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM FRANKLIN TO OSCEOLA IN NEBRASKA.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES MAY CAUSE AREAS OF LOWLAND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI/JCB

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             6 S HASTINGS            40.50N 98.39W
05/11/2014  E1.75 INCH       ADAMS              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON SHOWBOAT ROAD 6 SOUTH OF HASTINGS.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
349 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             GLENVIL                 40.50N 98.25W
05/11/2014  M1.50 INCH       CLAY               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     FLOOD            1 S BLUE HILL           40.32N 98.45W
05/11/2014                   WEBSTER            NE   STORM CHASER

            ABOUT 18 INCHES OF WATER COVERING NORTHBOUND LANE OF 281
            ON SOUTH SIDE OF BLUE HILL.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TORNADO          1 S CLAY CENTER         40.51N 98.05W
05/11/2014                   CLAY               NE   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

&&

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
413 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND GST     OSBORNE                 39.44N 98.70W
05/11/2014  E50 MPH          OSBORNE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO CURRENTLY FALLING IN OSBORNE.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             NATOMA                  39.19N 99.02W
05/11/2014  E1.75 INCH       OSBORNE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GUERRERO

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

York (JYR), 24 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 78 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 21:26 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

The live radar over the trackEvery 2014 tornado in NebraskaEvery tornado in Nebraska since 1950Warnings in force in Nebraska nowThe forecast where you are

35 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.