EF1 tornado, Lowry City to Chloe, Missouri, May 19, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced (3 of 5) to Moderate (4 of 5) Risk today and tonight.
  Confidence and concern is increasing for multiple rounds of
  strong to severe storms this afternoon through the overnight
  hours. Hazards include tornadoes, some potentially strong,
  tennis ball sized hail, and wind gusts up to 70-80 mph.

- A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 PM this evening for areas
 along and west of Highway 65.

- Many areas to see 1 to 3 inches of rain through Tuesday. A
  Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM Tuesday. Localized areas
  could see rain amounts as high as 5-7 inches.

- Active pattern is forecast to end after Tuesday, with mostly  dry
  and cooler temperatures late this week.

- 40-60% rain chances return for Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Synoptic analysis shows a large amplified upper level trough over
the Rockies shifting east throughout the day and becoming negatively
tilted as it pivots towards the area. A surface low is currently
located over Kansas, with a dryline extending southward through
OK/TX and a warm front extending eastward located across the
forecast area. As the morning/early afternoon has progressed, the
system has lifted north/northeast, lifting the warm front into the
area.

Since the previous forecast, the Storm Prediction Center has
expanded the Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) further north and east,
with all modes (potentially significant) possible. Storm set-up will
be pretty tricky, with likely a mixture of storm modes.

As of 1230PM, storms began to develop in eastern/southern OK, which
are expected to spread northeast into southwest MO beginning within
the next hour. Across the region, dewpoints are in the upper 60s/low
70s, showing an ample amount of moisture, with satellite imagery
showing slowly clearing skies across eastern Kansas as the cap
begins to erode. As daytime heating continues and large- scale
ascent begins to overspread the region, additional thunderstorm
development is expected along the dryline, beginning around 2-4PM.
Current guidance shows a highly unstable atmosphere, with MLCAPE >
2500 J/kg and deep layer shear between 40-50kts. With the 0-6kt bulk
shear vectors oriented from the west, supercells are the likely
storm mode towards the beginning of this event, which will allow for
all hazards, including large hail up to tennis balls, damaging wind
gusts between 70-80mph, and tornadoes, some potentially strong. The
tornado threat will increase as the afternoon progresses into the
evening, with the RAP STP showing values of 2-4 west of Hwy 65.
Latest CAM guidance shows clusters of supercells pushing through,
translating east- northeast and becoming widespread through the
evening and overnight.

A Tornado Watch is currently in effect for areas along and west of
Highway 65 until 9PM this evening. We'll continue to monitor how
things progress in order to determine any spatial or temporal
expansions in the future.

The cold front is progged to enter the western CWA later tonight,
pushing eastward overnight before exiting the area Tuesday
afternoon. CAMs show additional thunderstorm development west of I-
49 after midnight translating eastward into the early morning hours
before sunrise. As the nocturnal low level jet increases, 20-25kt 0-
1km shear and 100-200 m2/s2 SRH will allow for the tornado threat to
continue overnight in addition to large hail and damaging winds.

Slight (2 of 5) Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Tuesday:

Dissipating showers and thunderstorms may linger into the morning
hours after sunrise on Tuesday ahead of the sweeping cold front,
primarily east of Highway 65. We could see some destabilization
occur during the early afternoon, leading to 20-40% probability of
shower/thunderstorm redevelopment in the eastern Ozarks, however
latest guidance seems less keen on the western extent of this
occurrence, so confidence in any afternoon activity is fairly low.
If this can occur, 30-40kt deep layer shear will still be supportive
of supercells. We'll need to see if this would be more surface based
or elevated in nature, which would determine the primary hazards. If
they're more surface based, then tornadoes would be possible,
however more elevated storms would lead to large hail up to golf
balls as the primary hazard.

Flood Watch In Effect from until 7AM Tuesday:

With several rounds of showers/thunderstorms pushing through the
area today into tomorrow, a CWA-wide Flood Watch is in effect
through 7AM Tuesday. Over the past couple days, areas across east KS
and west-central MO have already seen 0.5-2.0 inches of rainfall,
with localized areas of 2-4 inches. HREF LPMM shows two primary
corridors for the heavy rainfall potential, with one over west-
central MO, and another across portions of the eastern Ozarks. Both
of these locations could see between 2-3 inches of additional
rainfall, with the LPMM showing the potential for pockets of up to 4-
6 inches. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights portions of
south-central MO in a Moderate risk (Level 3 of 4) to account for
this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Once this system pushes through, cooler and drier weather will enter
the region, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
Wednesday, and the mid to upper 60s Thursday and Friday. Towards the
end of the forecast period, a gradual warming trend is expected,
with highs warming into the 70s through the weekend.

For Memorial Day weekend, 40-60% rain chances return as moisture
builds beneath northwesterly flow, however uncertainty remains high.
We'll continue monitoring how things progress as we get closer to
this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

For the 00z TAFS, several rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the first part
of the overnight hours. All modes of severe storms will be
possible with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. Storms
should diminish by 06z at JLN and by 08z at SGF/BBG. MVFR
conditions are expected through the event but could see some
brief IFR during the most intense storms. Variable storm winds
gusting over 50 kts will be possible. Winds will eventually
switch from southeast to west-northwest as a front moves through
towards morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
224 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
224 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Moderate tornado risk.
  Moderate hail risk.
  Moderate thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight with a severe risk present with any storm that develops.
All hazards will be possible, including hail up to the size of
tennis balls, damaging winds up to 70 to 80 mph, and tornadoes,
some potentially strong. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 PM
this evening for areas along and west of Highway 65.

Along with the severe risk, a localized flooding threat is
present for any areas that see multiple heavy thunderstorms.
Localized rainfall amounts up to 5 to 7 inches are possible. A
Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM Tuesday to cover this threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday (20-40%
chance). Some storms may become strong to severe generally east
of Highway 63 during the afternoon hours. Large hail up to golf
balls, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, and a low chance for a
tornado will be the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed today and tonight for the entire
area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Melto

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
616 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Marmaton          37.85N 94.78W
05/19/2025                   Bourbon            KS   Law Enforcement

            Tree partially blocking the road.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Rain             Nevada                  37.84N 94.36W
05/19/2025  M3.50 Inch       Vernon             MO   Emergency Mngr

            total of 3.50 inches of rain so far.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
623 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Airport Drive     37.16N 94.50W
05/19/2025  M62 MPH          Jasper             MO   ASOS

            Joplin airport ASOS.

&&

TEO

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
655 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sarcoxie                37.07N 94.12W
05/19/2025                   Jasper             MO   Public

            Large tree down.

&&

TEO