EF1 tornado, Eudora to Olathe Cedar Park, Kansas, July 6, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...DRAKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
435 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
435 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WINDS TO 70 MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY AND
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING IS SOUTH OF A COUNCIL
GROVE TO HOLTON LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO LAWRENCE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 10 PM.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
500 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ040-056-062245-
FRANKLIN-DOUGLAS-
500 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 459 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAWRENCE TO POMONA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN LAWRENCE...OTTAWA...BALDWIN CITY...EUDORA...WELLSVILLE...
CENTROPOLIS...POMONA...LONE STAR...PRINCETON...LANE...RANTOUL...
PLEASANT GROVE...GLOBE AND VINLAND.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 173 AND 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3843 9507 3852 9551 3862 9551 3893 9533
      3895 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 273DEG 31KT 3895 9526 3860 9544

SANDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NE TALMAGE            39.09N 97.18W
07/06/2015  E1.11 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW HOYT              39.27N 95.78W
07/06/2015                   JACKSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS IMPASSABLE OR WASHED OUT IN SOUTHERN
            JACKSON COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES NEAR 118TH AND O...114TH
            AND K...126TH AND K...110TH AND P4...AND K ROAD NORTH OF
            110TH.

&&

BARJENBRUCH