Tornadoes · United States · Arkansas · 2023

EF2 tornado, Alco to Newnata, Arkansas, March 31, 2023

From Alco to Newnata, this EF2 tornado ran 6.8 miles across Stone County on March 31, 2023, touching down at 4:49 PM CDT and reaching 125 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mphthis tornado

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF2
Date
March 31, 2023
Touchdown
4:49 PM CDT (21:49 UTC)
Lifted
4:57 PM CDT (21:57 UTC)
On the ground
8 minutes
Path length
6.8 miles (10.9 km)
Path width
125 yards (114 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Stone County
Touchdown point
35.886, -92.367
Lift-off point
35.912, -92.251
Record number
2303311549-01

The damage survey

12 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS LZK, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF2. The highest wind the damage implies is 111 mph.

  • Roof flew off to the southwest into the road.
  • Tree down to the southeast.
  • Shingles blown off one side of house and trees uprooted.
  • Damage ends about 2 miles northeast of this point.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A powerful storm system and associated upper trough propagated across the Central Plains into the the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms developed in response to the passing trough triggering strong to severe thunderstorms across Arkansas.

This tornado started just south of Arkansas Hwy 66 near Alco,|moving northeast towards Arkansas Hwy 263 between Onia and Timbo.|After crossing the Arkansas Hwy 263, it ripped the roof off a|house and moved this house off the foundation. The tornado then|moved northeast crossing Big Springs Road, uprooting several|trees. The tornado then lifted just northeast of here before|Clearwater Road. This tornado was rated an EF2 with estimated maximum winds of 111 mph.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 19:54 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Mar 31, 1:39 PM CDT, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 1:39 PM CDT, 3 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
139 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

We are continuing to monitor the ongoing severe weather situation
across the forecast area. Strong to severe storms remain likely
across portions of the CWA through around 9-10pm tonight.

An upper low and storm system will move across the Midwest region
today, with a warm front lifting northeastward across the CWA today,
and a cold front sweeping eastward across the CWA through this
evening. In a moisture-rich environment (dewpoints in the 60s, PWATs
up to 1.5), severe weather parameters support development of severe
thunderstorms capable of producing violent tornadoes: SRH values 0-
3km 400+, 0-1km 300+; CAPE values 1000+ J/kg; bulk shear values 60-
70 kt.

Storms are moving along a line oriented NE-SW, moving into central
portions of the state as of early this afternoon. Another line is
developing over eastern OK/NE TX. The best chances for violent
tornadoes (EF2+) are in eastern portions of the state, but cannot be
ruled out elsewhere. Additional hazards include large hail and
damaging winds. Storms are expected to move east of the forecast
area by later this evening, around 9-10pm.

Dry conditions are forecast by late tonight through early Sunday.
Rain chances return Sunday when a warm front begins to lift
northward across the south-central U.S. returning warmer air and
moisture to the region.

Temps today will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, cooling
behind tonights cold front, with lows dropping to the lower 40s to
lower 50s tonight. Temps tomorrow will top out in the upper 50s to
mid 70s. Highs Sunday will return to the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING:

The beginning of the long-term forecast discussion will begin with
active weather north of a warm front that will bring the opportunity
of showers and thunderstorms to the Natural State overnight Sunday
into Monday morning.

MONDAY:

An area of sfc low pressure intensifies out across the Rocky
Mountain region of the CONUS. Expect clearing conditions w/ upper
lvl ridging across the southeastern region of the CONUS and a trof
beginning to dig significantly across the Western region of the
CONUS. Monday afternoon looks to be our greatest opportunity at rain-
free weather.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY:

An upper lvl closed low approaches the Central Plains region of the
CONUS. In tandem w/ a lifting warm front that will travel well north
of the Natural State into northern Missouri/southern Iowa by late in
the day on Tuesday. Tuesday will likely see an increase of rain and
thunderstorm activity. This will create a warm sector with abundant
moisture and parameter space that could be conducive for severe
weather. Into the day on Wednesday, a north-south oriented cold
front will sweep across the state from west to east and provide a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms. Looking late next
week, into Thursday and Friday, the cold front stalls out along the
Gulf Coast region of the CONUS and becomes a stationary front. Rain
and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue for the southern
half of the Natural State for the remainder of the workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  65  41  70 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         51  75  46  75 /  50   0   0  30
Harrison AR       45  59  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    51  70  44  73 /  10   0   0  30
Little Rock   AR  53  71  45  74 /  30   0   0  20
Monticello AR     57  77  48  76 /  50   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      51  69  42  72 /  10   0   0  30
Mountain Home AR  46  61  38  70 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        51  63  42  68 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     53  73  46  74 /  50   0   0  20
Russellville AR   50  67  42  72 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         49  68  41  70 /  30   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      53  69  45  71 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....234
AVIATION...71
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 1:43 PM CDT, 3 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
143 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-011000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
143 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat to
much of the forecast area through late this evening. Hazards
include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

After a brief lull on Saturday, chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will return late Sunday, with a more widespread heavy
rain event unfolding Tuesday through Thursday. The forecast calls
for two to more than four inches of rain, and the heaviest amounts
should be over southern Arkansas. This is concerning given that some
rivers are already elevated, and soil moisture is well above average
and cannot hold much additional water. There is also a potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed Today.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

71/234

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 3:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TORNADO          LITTLE ROCK             34.74N 92.31W
03/31/2023                   PULASKI            AR   NEWSPAPER

            HOMES WERE DESTROYED OFF RICHWOOD ROAD.

&&
Local storm report, Mar 31, 3:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
341 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TORNADO          CABOT                   34.97N 92.02W
03/31/2023                   LONOKE             AR   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUISNESSES OFF HIGHWAY
            89 IN CABOT.

&&
Local storm report, Mar 31, 3:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TORNADO          LITTLE ROCK             34.74N 92.31W
03/31/2023                   PULASKI            AR   NEWSPAPER

            MAJOR DAMAGE TO HOME OFF YOUNGWOOD ROAD.

&&
Local storm report, Mar 31, 3:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
346 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TORNADO          LITTLE ROCK             34.74N 92.31W
03/31/2023                   PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO HOMES IN LEAWOOD NEIGHBORHOOD IN
            MIDTOWN.

&&
Local storm report, Mar 31, 4:31 PM CDT, 18 minutes before
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The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Springfield, MO (KSGF), 12:00Z

9.8 hours before the tornado, 174 km from the path. March 31, 2023.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2023-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 315 joules per kilogram, CIN -257, lifted condensation level 672 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2023-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 696 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 54 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
315 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-257 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
672 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
696 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
722 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.6
0-3 km lapse rate
3.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Springfield, MO (KSGF), 00:00Z

2.2 hours after it, 174 km from the path. April 1, 2023.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2023-04-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -4, lifted condensation level 3513 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2023-04-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 209 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 95 knots.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-4 J/kg
Surface CAPE
86 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3513 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
95 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
209 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
168 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
9.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Clinton (CCA), 36 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
00:00 UTC

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 21:51 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2023 tornado in ArkansasEvery tornado in Arkansas since 1950Warnings in force in Arkansas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of March 31, 2023

126 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
March 312:18 PM CDTEF3Little Rock tornado, AR34.280054$90 million
March 312:37 PM CDTUnratedTazewell, IL0.310
March 313:15 PM CDTEF1Tazewell, IL0.910
March 313:23 PM CDTUnratedWoodford, IL0.620
March 313:36 PM CDTEF3Wapello, IA26.11,000$2.0 million
March 313:45 PM CDTEF1Prairie, AR1.1100
March 313:52 PM CDTUnratedPoweshiek, IA3.660
March 314:05 PM CDTUnratedLivingston, IL0.015
March 314:10 PM CDTEF4Keota–Wellman tornado, IA19.97003
March 314:22 PM CDTEF1Grundy, IA3.580$50,000
March 314:22 PM CDTEF1Grundy, IA4.180$50,000
March 314:30 PM CDTEF3Wynne–Parkin tornado, Arkansas and Tennessee72.51,600426$151 million
March 314:36 PM CDTEF2Benton, IA1.750
March 314:37 PM CDTEF0Johnson, IA6.150
March 314:46 PM CDTEF2Johnson, IA16.9752
March 314:47 PM CDTEF2Benton, IA4.950
March 314:51 PM CDTUnratedBenton, IA1.410
March 314:53 PM CDTEF2Johnson, IA14.7100
March 315:03 PM CDTUnratedBuchanan, IA1.710
March 315:06 PM CDTEF2Johnson, IA9.075
March 315:06 PM CDTEF1Cedar, IA8.310
March 315:14 PM CDTEF2Cedar, IA16.4250
March 315:15 PM CDTUnratedScott, IL0.510
March 315:17 PM CDTEF1Cedar, IA5.2100
March 315:18 PM CDTEF2Cedar, IA19.62002
March 315:20 PM CDTEF1Delaware, IA4.150
March 315:27 PM CDTUnratedMorgan, IL0.710
March 315:32 PM CDTEF1Delaware, IA11.190
March 315:35 PM CDTEF0Morgan, IL1.130
March 315:41 PM CDTEF1Jones, IA1.450
March 315:41 PM CDTEF2Des Moines, IA0.9150
March 315:48 PM CDTEF3Covington tornado, TN39.22,000128$80 million
March 315:50 PM CDTEF2Clinton, IA18.03501
March 315:58 PM CDTEF1Jackson, IA1.250
March 316:09 PM CDTEF0Jackson, IA0.215
March 316:12 PM CDTEF2Sangamon, IL5.4400
March 316:16 PM CDTEF1Jackson, IA to IL1.91003
March 316:18 PM CDTEF2Sangamon, IL21.0200
March 316:24 PM CDTEF2Henry, IL3.5300
March 316:33 PM CDTEF2Henry, IL3.0200
March 316:36 PM CDTEF2Henry, IL9.3440
March 316:37 PM CDTEF2Henry, IL6.8650
March 316:39 PM CDTEF1Carroll, IL1.050
March 316:47 PM CDTEF0Macoupin, IL6.3150$25,000
March 316:48 PM CDTEF1Whiteside, IL13.9150
March 316:48 PM CDTEF1Iowa, WI1.175$300,000
March 316:50 PM CDTEF1Lafayette, WI5.575$1.0 million
March 316:50 PM CDTEF1Carroll, IL11.0200
March 316:55 PM CDTEF1Lafayette, WI6.675$600,000
March 317:03 PM CDTUnratedPhillips, AR2.8100
March 317:06 PM CDTEF0Christian, IL4.120
March 317:08 PM CDTEF2Lee, IL9.3350
March 317:13 PM CDTEF1Lee, IL7.875
March 317:13 PM CDTEF1Christian, IL1.730
March 317:16 PM CDTEF0Green, WI3.075$400,000
March 317:20 PM CDTEF1Green, WI10.250$600,000
March 317:24 PM CDTEF1Ogle, IL27.5600140
March 317:26 PM CDTEF0Green, WI5.875$400,000
March 317:31 PM CDTEF1Winnebago, IL5.8300
March 317:31 PM CDTEF2Tunica, MS22.71,200$2.3 million

All 127 of them

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.