Tornadoes · United States · Illinois · 2023

EF1 tornado, Mt Carroll to Florence, Illinois, March 31, 2023

From Mt Carroll to Florence, this EF1 tornado ran 11.0 miles across Carroll, Stephenson and Ogle counties on March 31, 2023, touching down at 6:50 PM CDT and reaching 200 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
March 31, 2023
Touchdown
6:50 PM CDT (23:50 UTC)
Lifted
7:02 PM CDT (00:02 UTC)
On the ground
12 minutes
Path length
11.0 miles (17.7 km)
Path width
200 yards (183 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Counties
Carroll, Stephenson and Ogle counties
Touchdown point
42.080, -89.750
Lift-off point
42.214, -89.641
Record number
2303311750-02

The damage survey

9 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DVN and NWS LOT, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 110 mph.

  • Posts to Illinois Storm Chasers facebook page mention "trampoline and kayaks gone" and show show collapsed playground furniture in backyard. Near Coleta.
  • Damage to outbuildings on dairy farm.
  • Damage to four pine trees, two were snapped.
  • Extensive damage to outbuildings at two farms.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A very strong system developed on the morning of March 31st and tracked across the state of Iowa. This system pulled unseasonably warm and moist air into the Midwest, which combined with a very favorable wind profile to create a volatile environment for severe thunderstorms. Discrete supercell thunderstorms occurred initially, but quickly transitioned into a QLCS mode. This system produced a historic tornado outbreak for the area, with a record 29 tornadoes on the day, including 13 rated EF-2, 1 rated EF-3, and 1 rated EF-4. This was the first EF-4 tornado in the NWS Quad Cities service area since 1995. 11 injuries were reported, with no known fatalities. In addition to the numerous tornadoes, there were many large hail and damaging wind reports. Maximum straight line thunderstorm winds were estimated at 80 to 90 mph.

During the afternoon and evening of the 31st, a wave of severe thunderstorms produced numerous tornadoes, severe hail, extensive wind damage, and localized flooding across northern and northeastern Illinois. A total of 37 tornadoes were confirmed across the state. The NWS Chicago office tied a record for the most tornadoes to occur in a single calendar day within the office's county warning area with 22, 17 of which occurred in Illinois. One EF-2 tornado occurred in south-central Lee County and two others in northwest Indiana. Some of the more notable damage includes multiple semi trucks blown over, a garage that had been completely destroyed southeast of Amboy, and the partial roof collapse of the Apollo Theatre in Belvidere which unfortunately resulted in one fatality and 40 injuries.

A brief tornado occurred near Mt. Carroll as a line of supercell thunderstorms swept northeast over Illinois on March 31st. This tornado was found using satellite information to identify a damage track. There was confirmed powerline damage in that track.

This tornado began southeast of Lanark in Carroll County and tracked to the northeast before moving into Ogle County about a quarter mile north of the intersection of W White Oak Road and N Brookville Road. The tornado path then continued for about 5 miles through Ogle County (see NWS Chicago StormData). The tornado then crossed into Stephenson County, just east of the intersection of N Mt. Vernon Road and Montague Road. This tornado caused extensive damage to several farm buildings and also downed a few trees along its path. The tornado was rated EF-1 in Carroll and Ogle Counties. In Stephenson County, there was no observable damage so the rating is |EF-U.

This tornado began southeast of Lanark in Carroll County near Harvest Rd west of Shannon Rte. It tracked to the northeast crossing into rural Ogle County at N Brookville Rd north of W White Oak Rd. Shortly before dissipating, the storm crossed into Stephenson County at N Mt. Vernon Rd. It then lifted as it approached Florence Rd west of IL Rt. 26 S. Extensive damage was done to several farm buildings and a few trees were downed as well.

This tornado began southeast of Lanark in Carroll County and tracked to the northeast before moving into Ogle County about a quarter mile north of the intersection of W White Oak Road and N Brookville Road. The tornado path then continued for about 5 miles through Ogle County (see NWS Chicago StormData). The tornado then crossed into Stephenson County, just east of the intersection of N Mt. Vernon Road and Montague Road. This tornado caused extensive damage to several farm buildings and also downed a few trees along its path. The tornado dissipated near the intersection of Florence Road and Illinois Route 26. The tornado was rated EF-1 in Carroll and Ogle Counties. In Stephenson County, there was no observable damage so the rating is |EF-U.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

15 minutes of warning. NWS DVN issued a tornado warning for this county at 23:35 UTC, 15 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 00:00 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 16:47 UTC and running to 01:00 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
16:47 UTC01:00 UTCTornado WatchDVN
21:12 UTC21:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVN
22:44 UTC23:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVN
23:12 UTC23:44 UTCTornado WarningDVN
23:18 UTC23:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVN
23:35 UTC00:00 UTCTornado WarningDVN
23:42 UTC00:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVN
23:48 UTC00:18 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVN
23:59 UTC00:05 UTCTornado WarningDVN
03:00 UTC18:00 UTCWind AdvisoryDVN

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Moderate Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 19:54 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Davenport, (KDVN), 12:00Z

11.8 hours before the tornado, 89 km from the path. March 31, 2023.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2023-03-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -72889, lifted condensation level 897 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2023-03-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 433 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 67 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-72889 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
897 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
433 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
424 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
4.8 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Davenport, (KDVN), 00:00Z

0.2 hours after it, 89 km from the path. April 1, 2023.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2023-04-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -108599, lifted condensation level 1722 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2023-04-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -457 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 75 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-108599 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1722 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
75 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-457 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-447 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
5.9 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 23:48 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
20:52 UTCHAIL 1ErieWhiteside, ILREPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).
23:39 UTCTORNADO3 S Mount CarrollCarroll, ILSATELLITE DERIVED TRACK WITH CONFIRMED POWERLINE DAMAGE. THE TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE PEAK WINDS OF 110 MPH . IT WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 0.97 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 350 YARDS.
23:42 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 Sse Mount CarrollCarroll, ILPOWER POLES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.
23:48 UTCTORNADO2 S Deer GroveBureau, ILESTIMATED PEAK 110 MPH WINDS, WITH A PATH LENGTH OF 13.9 MILES AND WIDTH OF 150 YARDS.
23:52 UTCTSTM WND DMG4 S ShannonCarroll, ILDAMAGE TO HOMES FROM POSSIBLE TORNADO.
23:53 UTCTSTM WND DMG4 Nnw New BedfordBureau, ILMULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS AND A DETACHED GARAGE DOWN WITH SIDING DAMAGE TO A HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
23:56 UTCTORNADO9 Ssw HarmonLee, IL[THIS TORNADO BEGAN IN WFO DVNS AREA] NWS SURVEY CONFIRMS AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH PEAK WINDS OF 110 MPH DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF DEER GROVE, CROSSED THE LEE COUNTY LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREEN RIVER AND TRACKED NORTHEAST BEFO
23:59 UTCTORNADO6 Nw ForrestonOgle, ILSEVERAL FARM STRUCTURES DESTROYED IN FAR NORTHWEST OGLE COUNTY. TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE OBSERVED ON KDVN RADAR.
00:05 UTCTSTM WND GST 513 N StocktonJo Daviess, IL
00:07 UTCTSTM WND GST 644 Nne StocktonJo Daviess, IL
00:11 UTCTSTM WND DMG1 Wnw AmboyLee, ILGRAIN BIN DAMAGED AT MAPLEHURST FARMS. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.
00:11 UTCTSTM WND DMG5 Sw AmboyLee, ILDESTORYED BARN PHOTO SHARED BY PUBLIC TO SOCIAL MEDIA, TIME ESTIMATED ON RADAR.
00:24 UTCTORNADO3 Se Stillman ValleyOgle, IL*** 1 FATAL, 40 INJ *** AN NWS DAMAGE SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH PATH LENGTH OF APPROXIMATELY 28 MILES, MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 900 YARDS, AND PEAK WINDS OF 90 TO 100 MPH MOVED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OGLE, SOUTHEASTERN
00:25 UTCTSTM WND GST 67AmboyLee, IL
00:34 UTCTORNADO2 Wnw Loves ParkWinnebago, ILAN NWS DAMAGE SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 100 MPH, PATH LENGTH OF 8.7 MILES, AND MAX WIDTH OF 300 YARDS IMPACTED MACHESNEY PARK. DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH WAS CHARACTERIZED BY SNAPPED AND
00:35 UTCTSTM WND GST 592 Ssw RochelleOgle, ILKRPJ ASOS PEAK GUST.
00:39 UTCTSTM WND DMG2 N Machesney ParkWinnebago, ILLARGE TREE DOWNED AND BLOCKING ROADWAY. POWER LINES ALSO DOWNED.
00:42 UTCTSTM WND DMG1 S RocktonWinnebago, ILROOF DAMAGE AND TREES DOWN IN THE BUCKNELL SUBDIVISION NEAR OLD RIVER ROAD AND NORTH MAIN.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2023 tornado in IllinoisEvery tornado in Illinois since 1950Warnings in force in Illinois nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of March 31, 2023

126 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
March 312:18 PM CDTEF3Little Rock tornado, AR34.280054$90 million
March 312:37 PM CDTUnratedTazewell, IL0.310
March 313:15 PM CDTEF1Tazewell, IL0.910
March 313:23 PM CDTUnratedWoodford, IL0.620
March 313:36 PM CDTEF3Wapello, IA26.11,000$2.0 million
March 313:45 PM CDTEF1Prairie, AR1.1100
March 313:52 PM CDTUnratedPoweshiek, IA3.660
March 314:05 PM CDTUnratedLivingston, IL0.015
March 314:10 PM CDTEF4Keota–Wellman tornado, IA19.97003
March 314:22 PM CDTEF1Grundy, IA3.580$50,000
March 314:22 PM CDTEF1Grundy, IA4.180$50,000
March 314:30 PM CDTEF3Wynne–Parkin tornado, Arkansas and Tennessee72.51,600426$151 million
March 314:36 PM CDTEF2Benton, IA1.750
March 314:37 PM CDTEF0Johnson, IA6.150
March 314:46 PM CDTEF2Johnson, IA16.9752
March 314:47 PM CDTEF2Benton, IA4.950
March 314:49 PM CDTEF2Stone, AR6.8125
March 314:51 PM CDTUnratedBenton, IA1.410
March 314:53 PM CDTEF2Johnson, IA14.7100
March 315:03 PM CDTUnratedBuchanan, IA1.710
March 315:06 PM CDTEF2Johnson, IA9.075
March 315:06 PM CDTEF1Cedar, IA8.310
March 315:14 PM CDTEF2Cedar, IA16.4250
March 315:15 PM CDTUnratedScott, IL0.510
March 315:17 PM CDTEF1Cedar, IA5.2100
March 315:18 PM CDTEF2Cedar, IA19.62002
March 315:20 PM CDTEF1Delaware, IA4.150
March 315:27 PM CDTUnratedMorgan, IL0.710
March 315:32 PM CDTEF1Delaware, IA11.190
March 315:35 PM CDTEF0Morgan, IL1.130
March 315:41 PM CDTEF1Jones, IA1.450
March 315:41 PM CDTEF2Des Moines, IA0.9150
March 315:48 PM CDTEF3Covington tornado, TN39.22,000128$80 million
March 315:50 PM CDTEF2Clinton, IA18.03501
March 315:58 PM CDTEF1Jackson, IA1.250
March 316:09 PM CDTEF0Jackson, IA0.215
March 316:12 PM CDTEF2Sangamon, IL5.4400
March 316:16 PM CDTEF1Jackson, IA to IL1.91003
March 316:18 PM CDTEF2Sangamon, IL21.0200
March 316:24 PM CDTEF2Henry, IL3.5300
March 316:33 PM CDTEF2Henry, IL3.0200
March 316:36 PM CDTEF2Henry, IL9.3440
March 316:37 PM CDTEF2Henry, IL6.8650
March 316:39 PM CDTEF1Carroll, IL1.050
March 316:47 PM CDTEF0Macoupin, IL6.3150$25,000
March 316:48 PM CDTEF1Whiteside, IL13.9150
March 316:48 PM CDTEF1Iowa, WI1.175$300,000
March 316:50 PM CDTEF1Lafayette, WI5.575$1.0 million
March 316:55 PM CDTEF1Lafayette, WI6.675$600,000
March 317:03 PM CDTUnratedPhillips, AR2.8100
March 317:06 PM CDTEF0Christian, IL4.120
March 317:08 PM CDTEF2Lee, IL9.3350
March 317:13 PM CDTEF1Lee, IL7.875
March 317:13 PM CDTEF1Christian, IL1.730
March 317:16 PM CDTEF0Green, WI3.075$400,000
March 317:20 PM CDTEF1Green, WI10.250$600,000
March 317:24 PM CDTEF1Ogle, IL27.5600140
March 317:26 PM CDTEF0Green, WI5.875$400,000
March 317:31 PM CDTEF1Winnebago, IL5.8300
March 317:31 PM CDTEF2Tunica, MS22.71,200$2.3 million

All 127 of them

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.