NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 15, 10:47 AM MST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Jan 15, 10:47 AM MST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1047 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Windy conditions are expected today into Friday. Widespread wind
gusts to 60 mph can be expected, with the strongest winds along
the east side of the Bighorn mountains and near the Montana-
Dakotas border.
- The combination of light snow and strong winds over portions of
eastern Montana tonight into Friday morning may cause reduced
visibility below a mile at times (moderate chance).
- A period of light to moderate snow is forecast along the
southern foothills this afternoon and evening. Minor impacts to
the evening commute are possible (moderate chance). Total snow
accumulations of 0.5 to 2 inches.
&&
.UPDATE...
A windy day remains on track as a strong cold front drops through
the region this afternoon and evening bringing strong winds, rain/snow
showers, a brief period of accumulating snow for the foothills,
and some blowing snow concerns to mainly the east. Strong
pressure rises are expected to accompany the front, and given
latest trends in hi-res models with the gust potential for 60 mph
winds for most places across south- central MT, have expanded the
High Wind Warnings to include Billings and areas to the western
foothills, down through Red Lodge. Winds may decrease some behind
the main frontal push, but as the parent weather system deepens
over southern Canada and drops into the High Plains, strong winds
are expected to persist tonight into Friday, strongest near the
Dakotas border and the east side of the Bighorns. STP
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday...
Windy conditions are expected today into Friday as a strong
shortwave trough, and associated cold front, drop through the
region. With this, strong pressure rises along the front and mid-
level winds increasing around 40 to 55 knots at 850 mb will favor
wind gusts in the 40s and 50s (mph) across much of the area, with
gusts around 60 mph over portions of eastern Montana and northern
Wyoming. The initial push of winds will come with the cold front
passage mid- day today into this afternoon. While winds may
temporarily decrease behind the front, winds are expected to
increase once again this evening into Friday as the strongest
mid- level winds associated with the shortwave move over the area.
While periods of upward motion combined with a subtle nocturnal
inversion may limit the strongest winds from reaching the ground
at times tonight, high resolution models indicate the strong winds
will still be able to surface at times, especially where
precipitation pushes some of the stronger winds down over eastern
Montana. As the strong mid-level winds taper off Friday, so will
the winds at the surface. The one thing to watch Friday is there
looks to be another subtle wave and cold front that drops through
eastern Montana during the afternoon. This may temporarily
increase winds before the final trend down occurs Friday evening
and night. With all that said, the High Wind Watch in effect for
Carter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River, Rosebud, and portions of
Wheatland, Golden Valley, Big Horn, and Sheridan (WY) Counties has
been upgraded to a High Wind Warning. The one addition to the
High Wind Warning is Musselshell County where the probability of
strong wind gusts has increased over the past 24 hours. While
other areas will still see gusty winds during this time, the
chance of prolonged strong winds remains lower.
Along with the wind, the cold front passage will bring a line of
showers through the area this afternoon and evening. With this,
the greatest chance of precipitation is over the southern
Mountains and foothills where upslope enhancement will be in
place (30 to 70 percent, greatest over the Bighorn Mountains).
While the initial precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix
over the lower elevations, temperatures falling quickly behind the
front should allow for all snow to develop along the foothills.
With this, minor impacts to the evening commute are possible
along the foothills where 0.5 to 2 inches of snow are forecast.
Another period of light snow associated with shortwave may
develop over far eastern Montana this evening into Friday morning
(up to 50 percent chance, greatest over Fallon and Carter
Counties). This snow, combined with the strong winds, could reduce
visibility at times. Currently, the chance of seeing visibility
drop below a mile in blowing snow is moderate. Overall
accumulations with this second round in the east are expected to
remain minimal, especially with the wind.
Friday will be the coldest day we have seen in awhile with highs
in the 20s to near 40 degrees, coldest in far eastern Montana.
Warmer conditions look to return to at least south-central
Montana Saturday as downslope winds begin to increase once again
ahead of another weather system for late Saturday into Sunday.
This system will likely drop another backdoor front through the
area, increasing winds and bringing another shot at precipitation
to the region (10 to 25 percent chance of precipitation, greatest
around the Bighorn and Pryor Mountains). If you have travel or
recreation plans Sunday, make sure to stay up to date with the
latest forecast.
Mostly dry northwest flow looks to prevail over the region early
next week. This will keep the door open to additional waves,
potentially Monday and Wednesday. Stay tuned. Arends
.AVIATION...
18z Discussion...
A strong cold front will move through the area from NW to SE
during the daytime hours today. Expect the FROPA at KBIL aroun
20z and at KSHR around KSHR. Winds will quickly pick up to
30-40kts with gusts up to 50-55kts out of the NW. Scattered
rain/snow showers are also expected along this front. All sites
should expect this strong wind push except KLVM may be able to
keep gusts under 40kts. Snow showers will linger around KSHR/KRED
through 06z as the mountain slopes see an extended period of
snow. Mountains will be partially to fully obscured after 22z.
Breezy winds in excess of 35kts will stick around for the entire
region into the day tomorrow.
Additionally, as winds stay strong in the plains (KMLS/KBHK) and
snow showers move into the area after 05z, reduced visibility is
possible due to BLSN. This may be localized and thus VFR
conditions will likely prevail with brief dips down to MVFR/IFR.
WMR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 028/036 021/045 032/046 024/044 031/049 027/044
2/W 10/N 00/U 01/B 10/B 00/B 11/B
LVM 051 023/034 021/046 028/044 023/045 029/048 029/047
1/N 10/N 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/B 01/B
HDN 053 025/034 016/041 028/045 021/042 024/049 024/042
3/W 20/N 10/U 02/J 10/B 00/B 11/B
MLS 044 021/027 008/031 022/037 014/032 018/040 021/035
4/W 11/N 00/U 01/B 10/B 00/E 11/B
4BQ 046 022/028 011/033 024/040 018/034 021/044 022/039
4/W 21/N 10/U 01/B 10/B 00/B 11/B
BHK 041 014/021 903/026 016/030 005/024 011/037 015/031
4/J 52/J 00/U 01/N 10/B 00/E 11/E
SHR 053 019/029 014/039 024/042 017/039 021/050 021/043
5/J 51/N 11/U 02/J 10/B 00/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM MST Friday FOR ZONES
29>33-36-37-57-58-138-173.
High Wind Warning in effect until noon MST Friday FOR ZONES
34-42-63-141-170-172-228-235.
High Wind Warning in effect until 5 AM MST Friday FOR ZONES
56-139.
Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM MST Friday FOR ZONE 66.
WY...High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM MST Friday FOR ZONE
199.
&&
weather.gov/billings