Drought in Texas, January 15 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1100 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

 - Strong cold front continues advancing through the region this
   afternoon with gusty N/NW winds, maintaining an elevated fire
   danger in areas where little rainfall has occurred recently.

 - A steady diet of cold fronts over the next week will generally
   keep temperatures below seasonal averages with our warmest day
   likely coming on Friday just ahead of the next front.

 - The base of the deep longwave trough will swing overhead this
   weekend, lending credence to the potential for snow flurries
   so future forecasts may reflect this if confidence increases.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

An increasingly active/progressive longwave pattern will bring a
series of cold fronts through our region over the next week, the
first of which is currently shifting through our SE zones on its
way to the coast. Behind the front, gusty N/NW winds prevail this
afternoon as gusts have already exceeded 30 mph in several areas.
Given the relative dryness still in place, especially along and
north of the I-30 corridor where little rainfall fell last week,
elevated fire danger persists with these gusty winds and low RH
values. Fortunately, wind speeds are expected to drop off later
this evening through the overnight hours with low temperatures
eventually bottoming out in the lower to mid 20s north to upper
20s and lower 30s south with skies clearing from NW to SE behind
the departing front.

Cold air advection will maintain below average high temperatures
on Thursday with a range from the upper 40s to lower and mid 50s.
Chilly, albeit not as cold, overnight temperatures will follow on
Thursday night as winds shift back southerly with lows largely
ranging through the 30s along with a few lower 40s. Moving ahead
to Friday, the longwave pattern will briefly shift more zonal just
ahead of the next cold front diving southward through the Plains.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s over much of the
region ahead of the front, making Friday our warmest on the next
7 days. Very limited moisture return prior to fropa will preclude
any rain chances, thus reinforcing fire danger concerns once again
with gusty W/NW winds and low RH values in wake of the cold front.

For this weekend, the longwave trough responsible for the repeated
frontal passages will continue to dominate the eastern two-thirds
of the country. A subtle but important feature with this longwave
trough will come in the form of a shortwave rounding the base of
the trough late Saturday into early Sunday. As a result, increased
forcing associated with this shortwave may generate enough lift in
an otherwise dry atmosphere to wring out some light snow flurries,
mainly in our eastern zones. However, low forecast confidence has
led to maintaining a dry forecast through the weekend for now with
future updates potentially reflecting some changes pending better
clarity and consistency in guidance.

Beyond the weekend, cooler and drier conditions will prevail into
early next week with another cold front progged to arrive Monday.
Similarly, this front will serve to reinforce the air mass already
in place with temperatures dropping off slightly on Tuesday before
a gradual recovery by mid-week when rain chances look to make a
return as a Pacific shortwave advances from northern Mexico toward
the western Gulf coast by Wednesday.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, SKC with much less gustiness, but
sustained winds will keep NW in the 5-10KT range until predawn
for a few sites. Then, 5KT or less and shifting from NW back to SW
by mid afternoon as the air mass over TX drifts out across the
Gulf. SKC expected for aside from some cirrus late in the cycle.
Our next big fropa occurs this weekend with more showers on
Saturday and high pressure settling right back into central
TX by Sunday morning and SKC once again. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through this weekend.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  54  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  51  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  23  51  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  28  54  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  51  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  30  56  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  32  57  39  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...24