What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 22, 9:19 PM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Lingering showers and storms until midnight (mainly SE), tapering to showers overnight/early Tuesday. 2) Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated strong to severe storms. 3) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the weekend.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 22, 9:19 PM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1019 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All of the initial Severe Thunderstorm Watch (375) has been
cancelled across central/east central VA and Maryland. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch (379) remains in effect through 11 PM across
portions of SE VA and Northampton NC.
Increased chance in heavy rainfall and strong to severe storms
Tuesday as remnants of an MCV moves across the area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Lingering showers and storms until midnight (mainly SE),
tapering to showers overnight/early Tuesday.
2) Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday afternoon
into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and isolated
strong to severe storms.
3) A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 1010 PM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lingering showers and storms until midnight
(mainly SE), tapering to showers overnight/early Tuesday.
Latest wx analysis indicating a broken line of showers/tstms,
across the area. The SVR threat has ended across the NW 2/3 of
the CWA, but will linger through 11 PM across the far SE (where
SVR Tstm Watch remains in effect). Genly sub-SVR but still
potentially strong storms are possible through ~1 AM. In
addition, heavy downpours may lead localized flash flooding
(mainly across urban portions of the Peninsula and Hampton Roads
through ~1 AM. after that, lingering showers ending before
daybreak, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Another chance for showers and storms returns Tuesday
afternoon into evening, with the potential for heavy downpours and
isolated strong to severe storms.
The aforementioned cold front will be slow to move out of the area
and a subsequent surface low will form along the front and slide
across the area Tuesday as an MCV. With the front slowly crossing
the area Tuesday, warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and
dewpoints in the lower 70s across the SE VA/NE NC will keep
sufficient instability levels throughout the day. PWAT values will
quickly rebound with values >2.0" for areas along the Ches. Bay and
Atlantic Coast. Localized areas could see an additional 1.00-2.00"
of rainfall, with more widespread values of 0.50-1.00" of rainfall
across a large portion of the area Tuesday, on top of any rainfall
tonight. While any and all rain is beneficial, there is a concern
for areas of flash flooding, especially the urban and poor drainage
areas. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms (level 1
of 5) as isolated storms may become severe with damaging winds.
There is still some uncertainty with storm development, but the 12z
models have came into better agreement with training showers and
possible storms.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A more summer-like pattern takes hold Wednesday night into the
weekend.
A drier airmass will take over behind the cold front, keeping
Wednesday dry. Temperatures won't be much cooler though, with highs
near normal in the mid to upper 80s across the area Wednesday. By
Wednesday night, winds will quickly shift back to the SE-S and bring
back normal June humidity amd temperatures. For the remainder of the
week, a more typical summertime pattern sets up for late week.
Mainly seasonable temperatures are expected, with diurnally driven,
scattered late-day and evening showers and storms possible each day.
Expect highs mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s, with overnight
lows in the 60s to near 70.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...
LIFR VSBYs and gusty winds in tstms through 03-06Z (longest in
the SE). Storms may scatter/ fall apart before reaching ECG, so
have maintained VCSH there. Behind the storms, there may be
patchy low stratus/fog in areas that received heavier rainfall.
MVFR CIGs have been included for RIC and SBY after 06z/23 through
sunrise. Additional flight restrictions are likely Tuesday,
initially in SHRA/TSRA, and then with lingering low clouds into
Tuesday evening (especially ORF/ECG).
Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR Wednesday. Late day showers/storms
possible Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters through
tonight with gusty S-SE winds ahead of an approaching system.
- Sub-SCA conditions are expected for much of this week.
Afternoon weather analysis shows a low pressure system tracking
across eastern OH and western PA. The pressure gradient ahead of the
low has tightened over the waters allowing winds to increase out of
the S around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the bay and 25kt
across the ocean. Waves are much lower than expected with 1-2ft
across the bay and 2-3ft across the ocean. Through the rest of the
evening and into tonight, the pressure gradient will continue
to tighten and winds will increase to 20-25kt with some gusts
approaching 30kt. The highest confidence in these 30kt gusts are
across the ocean waters north of the VA/NC border. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued and are in effect for all waters,
now including the Sound and southern coastal waters, as hi-res
guidance continues to gusts around 25kt. Seas will also increase
to 3-4ft across the bay and 4-5ft across the ocean. In addition
to the wind, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon and into tonight. These storms could pose the
risk of gusts greater than 34kt and a waterspout cannot be ruled
out especially across the the far north.
The low will track north and a weak cold front will pass across the
waters tomorrow. Winds shift to the NW by late tomorrow afternoon/
evening behind the front, and may increase slightly tomorrow night.
Will note that additional SCA maybe needed as models continue to
hint on gusts nearing 20kt. Local probs have increased to 50% of
gusts greater than 18kt across the bay tomorrow evening/night.
Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected the rest of the week as
high pressure returns.
Rip current risk has been downgraded for today to moderate due to
reports and the waves being lower than expected. The rip risk looks
to be low through much of this week.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-654-
656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
&&
DISCUSSION...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...ERI/HETHazardous weather outlook, Jun 22, 5:24 PM EST, 5 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064-068-069-075>078-083>086-099-100-
509>513-515>522-232230-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-New Kent-Gloucester-
Middlesex-Mathews-Accomack-Northampton-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia and southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
winds and isolated flash flooding are the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Wakefield.
NCZ013>017-030>032-VAZ097-523>525-528>531-232230-
Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-
Perquimans-Chesapeake-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible later this evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
winds and isolated flash flooding are the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
NCZ102-VAZ098-232230-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible later this
evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
winds and isolated flash flooding are the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
NCZ012-VAZ065>067-079>082-087>090-092-514-232230-
Northampton-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-Charles City-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
624 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday. Damaging
winds and isolated flash flooding are the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Wakefield.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 22, 9:22 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1022 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
VAZ099-100-230300-
Accomack VA-Northampton VA-
1022 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ACCOMACK AND
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...
At 1021 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cape Charles, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Cape Charles, Cheriton, and Bay View around 1025 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Capeville, Birdsnest,
Kiptopeke State Park, Jamesville, Silver Beach, Eastville,
Machipongo, Wardtown, Franktown, and Simpkins.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
eastern Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3727 7574 3718 7575 3707 7591 3706 7599
3713 7604 3728 7608 3751 7601 3754 7555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 273DEG 24KT 3728 7602
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ButnerLocal storm report, Jun 22, 9:40 PM EST, 45 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1040 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0928 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SE Newville 36.99N 77.14W
06/22/2026 Sussex VA NWS Employee
Numerous trees and large branches down on VA
40.
&&
NMLocal storm report, Jun 22, 9:50 PM EST, 35 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1050 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0943 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 S Booth Fork 36.95N 76.95W
06/22/2026 Sussex VA NWS Employee
Large tree across eastbound lane on US 460.
&&
NMLocal storm report, Jun 22, 9:59 PM EST, 26 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1059 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1043 PM Marine Tstm Wind Fort Monroe 37.01N 76.31W
06/22/2026 M41 MPH ANZ632 VA Mesonet
A mesonet at Mill Creek Pond gusted to 41
mph.
1035 PM Marine Tstm Wind 4 SSW Raleigh Terrace 36.95N 76.39W
06/22/2026 M51 MPH ANZ639 VA Mesonet
Middle Ground Lighthouse mesonet gusted to
51 mph.
1039 PM Marine Tstm Wind 2 SSE Raleigh Terrace 36.98N 76.36W
06/22/2026 M51 MPH ANZ639 VA Mesonet
Hampton Flats mesonet measured a gust of 51
mph.
&&Local storm report, Jun 22, 10:03 PM EST, 22 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1103 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 WNW Hallwood 37.07N 76.32W
06/22/2026 City of Hampton VA Public
Power line down.
&&
NMSpecial weather statement, Jun 22, 10:04 PM EST, 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1104 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ097-098-230345-
Eastern Currituck NC-Pasquotank NC-Hertford NC-Bertie NC-Camden NC-
Gates NC-Perquimans NC-Western Currituck NC-Chowan NC-
Virginia Beach VA-Chesapeake VA-
1104 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CAMDEN...PASQUOTANK...
PERQUIMANS...SOUTHEASTERN BERTIE...SOUTHEASTERN HERTFORD...EASTERN
GATES...CURRITUCK...AND CHOWAN COUNTIES...THE CITY OF CHESAPEAKE AND
THE SOUTHERN CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...
At 1104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Great Bridge to near Colerain to near
Robersonville. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and frequent lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Virginia Beach, Windsor, Great Bridge, Ryland, Chesapeake,
Colerain, Rockyhock, Tyner, Fentress, and Hobbsville around 1110
PM EDT.
South Mills, Morgans Corner, Valhalla, Northwest, and Belvidere
around 1115 PM EDT.
Hertford, Winfall, and Back Bay around 1120 PM EDT.
Elizabeth City, Cape Colony, Moyock, and Chapanoke around 1125 PM
EDT.
Burgess around 1130 PM EDT.
Currituck, Camden, Elizabeth City State University, Snug Harbor,
and Nixonton around 1135 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Goose Pond, Whites
Crossroads, Pierceville, Newsome Store, Arrowhead Beach, Saint Johns,
Parkville, Mount Gould, Yeopim Station, and Carter.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
southeastern Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3590 7692 3586 7704 3594 7704 3593 7719
3680 7623 3668 7586 3653 7581 3614 7606
3608 7641 3601 7651 3601 7658 3606 7662
3601 7669 3593 7674 3593 7673 3594 7669
3593 7669 3588 7674 3588 7683 3581 7688
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 280DEG 37KT 3673 7628 3617 7685 3578 7726
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BROWN