What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 22, 4:41 AM CST, 5 hours 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Strong thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall will spread into parts of North Texas this morning. Localized flash flooding is possible near and north of I-20.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop tonight into Tuesday, with the highest rain chances across North Texas near a stalled front.
- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the workweek.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 22, 4:41 AM CST, 5 hours 4 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and heavy
rainfall will spread into parts of North Texas this morning.
Localized flash flooding is possible near and north of I-20.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop tonight into
Tuesday, with the highest rain chances across North Texas near
a stalled front.
- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will continue through the
rest of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The main concern through the short term period is the upstream
convective complex in Oklahoma as of midnight, which will move SSE
into parts of North Texas this morning. While some weakening of
this complex is expected as it outruns synoptic scale support
while encountering increasing nocturnal MLCIN, it will likely
remain capable of strong to marginally severe wind gusts upon
entering North Texas after 3-4AM. Would expect activity to at
least advance as far south of the I-20 corridor towards daybreak,
with some of the more aggressive guidance pushing an outflow all
the way into our southeastern zones by mid-morning. PoPs will be
highest across our northeast and taper off to the southwest with
western portions of Central Texas unlikely to be impacted by such
a complex this morning, but a large portion of North Texas should
expect to experience a stormy morning commute. Should this complex
begin to slow or stall, individual cells would begin training in
a west-east fashion, and this would increase the potential for
flash flooding in along a localized corridor. We will likely see a
relative minimum in convection by this afternoon and evening as
morning convection winds down towards midday. However,
redevelopment is possible later this evening and overnight along a
newly established and repositioned effective frontal zone, which
may be located near the Red River or even slightly farther south
through North Texas depending on the evolution of today's
convection. PoPs will be indicated particularly near/north of
I-20 for the tonight/Tuesday period to account for this.
This morning's convective complex does complicate the potential
need for heat headlines today. We'll likely have a dense cirrus
canopy present across at least the eastern half of the CWA
through the first portion of the day. In addition, if the
convective outflow does surge all the way south into Central
Texas, this will help scour dewpoints by a few degrees which
would keep heat index values well below 105 this afternoon. If
this scenario does not play out and our south/southeast zones are
unaffected by remnant convection today, then these areas probably
will meet Heat Advisory criteria. Should this occur, a Heat
Advisory may still need to be issued later this morning for
roughly our southeastern quadrant of counties. This same area will
also be the most likely to reach criteria on Tuesday afternoon,
barring any additional effects from nearby convection later
tonight or Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
With the upper ridge axis beginning to expand late Tuesday and
Wednesday, our potential for thunderstorm complexes will
diminish during the second half of the week as we transition to
weaker zonal flow aloft. The last potential for nearby
thunderstorm complexes will probably be on Wednesday, with no PoPs
mentioned from Thursday onward as the more active storm pattern
retreats northward into the Central Plains. Without convection
nearby to interrupt daytime heat and humidity, we should make a
more convincing return to clear-cut Heat Advisory levels,
especially heading into next weekend. Highs will be in the mid
90s to around 100 late in the week and next weekend, while
overnight lows fall into the mid and upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
A weakening line of convection is approaching the Metroplex
airports from the north as of 11z and is still expected to result
in a brief period of TSRA at the TAF sites during the next few
hours. This activity will also likely be accompanied by a
temporary north wind shift with gusts as high as 25-30 kts.
Following the gradual dissipation of convection late this morning
and early this afternoon, VFR and a south wind will prevail into
the early evening. There is some potential for convective
redevelopment in parts of North Texas late this evening and
overnight, but confidence in placement and coverage remains far
too low to include additional period of TSRA in the remainder of
the TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 78 96 79 / 80 20 20 0
Waco 93 77 93 77 / 20 0 0 0
Paris 87 74 89 75 / 90 50 30 10
Denton 91 77 95 78 / 80 20 20 0
McKinney 90 77 93 78 / 90 30 20 0
Dallas 91 78 96 79 / 80 20 20 0
Terrell 91 76 94 77 / 80 20 20 0
Corsicana 91 77 95 76 / 40 10 10 0
Temple 93 77 94 76 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 91 76 96 77 / 50 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 22, 3:57 AM CST, 5 hours 48 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
457 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
TXZ091>093-102>104-221100-
Collin TX-Denton TX-Grayson TX-Cooke TX-Montague TX-Wise TX-
457 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Montague, Wise,
Denton, northern Collin, Cooke and Grayson Counties through 600 AM
CDT...
At 456 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Denison to Bowie. Movement was south at
30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
McKinney, Frisco, Denton, Sherman, Corinth, Gainesville, Sanger,
Decatur, Bridgeport, Bowie, Whitesboro, Nocona, Denison, Prosper,
Anna, Celina, Melissa, Krum, Pilot Point, and Van Alstyne.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 35 between mile markers 468 and 503.
Interstate 35W between mile markers 79 and 85.
Interstate 35E between mile markers 460 and 466.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
north central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3385 9686 3383 9671 3392 9666 3388 9660
3384 9662 3373 9638 3328 9639 3300 9792
3379 9792 3390 9746 3383 9746 3382 9738
3392 9721 3376 9719 3372 9711 3382 9705
3385 9709 3384 9703 3395 9700 3396 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0956Z 338DEG 26KT 3373 9658 3346 9789
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
ShamburgerSpecial weather statement, Jun 22, 4:11 AM CST, 5 hours 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
TXZ094-095-221100-
Lamar TX-Fannin TX-
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lamar and Fannin
Counties through 600 AM CDT...
At 510 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Denison to Antlers, Oklahoma. Movement
was southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Paris, Bonham, Leonard, Honey Grove, Whitewright, Savoy, Ector,
Roxton, Trenton, Dodd City, Ravenna, Lake Bonham, Valley Lake,
Randolph, Pat Mayse Lake, Bonham State Park, Lake Crook, Powderly,
Sumner, and Lake Gibbons.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
north central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3388 9554 3388 9531 3373 9531 3346 9586
3341 9586 3334 9639 3372 9638 3369 9636
3370 9634 3370 9632 3376 9630 3375 9619
3384 9615 3384 9602 3389 9593 3384 9584
3384 9577 3389 9575 3388 9570 3394 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1010Z 320DEG 29KT 3423 9545 3375 9628
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
ShamburgerSpecial weather statement, Jun 22, 4:50 AM CST, 4 hours 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
TXZ103-104-118>121-221200-
Kaufman TX-Collin TX-Denton TX-Tarrant TX-Rockwall TX-Dallas TX-
550 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rockwall,
northwestern Kaufman, Denton, Tarrant, Collin and Dallas Counties
through 700 AM CDT...
At 550 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Justin to Denton to Blue Ridge. Movement was
south at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, Plano, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie,
Mesquite, McKinney, Carrollton, Frisco, Denton, Richardson,
Lewisville, Allen, Flower Mound, Mansfield, Rowlett, Euless, and
Desoto.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 35 between mile markers 468 and 475.
Interstate 35W between mile markers 38 and 85.
Interstate 35E between mile markers 412 and 466.
Interstate 20 between mile markers 432 and 498.
Interstate 30 between mile markers 10 and 79.
Interstate 45 between mile markers 268 and 284.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
north central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3334 9638 3335 9629 3265 9630 3255 9652
3256 9741 3331 9738 3340 9640 3340 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1050Z 344DEG 25KT 3328 9647 3313 9710 3315 9736
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ShamburgerSpecial weather statement, Jun 22, 4:53 AM CST, 4 hours 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
TXZ094-095-105>107-221200-
Hunt TX-Hopkins TX-Lamar TX-Delta TX-Fannin TX-
553 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Hunt, Hopkins, Delta,
Lamar and Fannin Counties through 700 AM CDT...
At 553 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Whitewright to Paris. Movement was southeast
at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Paris, Sulphur Springs, Bonham, Commerce, Leonard,
Cooper, Honey Grove, Whitewright, Blossom, Wolfe City, Quinlan, Caddo
Mills, Savoy, Celeste, Cumby, Ector, Roxton, Campbell, and Trenton.
This includes Interstate 30 between mile markers 80 and 132.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
north central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3285 9629 3335 9629 3334 9639 3362 9638
3388 9554 3387 9540 3388 9531 3321 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1053Z 327DEG 31KT 3382 9535 3344 9632
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ShamburgerSpecial weather statement, Jun 22, 5:55 AM CST, 3 hours 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
655 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
TXZ094-095-105>107-123-221230-
Hunt TX-Hopkins TX-Lamar TX-Rains TX-Delta TX-Fannin TX-
655 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Hunt, Hopkins,
northwestern Rains, Delta, southern Lamar and southern Fannin
Counties through 730 AM CDT...
At 654 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bogata to near Celeste. Movement was south
at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Greenville, Commerce, Campbell, Cooper Lake, Klondike, Sulphur
Bluff, Cooper Lake State Park, and Greenville City Lakes around
700 AM CDT.
Sulphur Springs, Cumby, and Lake Sulphur Springs around 710 AM
CDT.
Saltillo and Brashear around 715 AM CDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Charleston,
Neylandville, Lake Creek, New Birthright, Ridgeway, Pacio, Taylor
Town, Floyd, Gober, and Peerless.
This includes Interstate 30 between mile markers 80 and 142.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
north central Texas.
&&
LAT...LON 3285 9629 3345 9629 3369 9531 3311 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 338DEG 25KT 3342 9528 3326 9620
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
Stalley