Tornado and Flash Flood in Arkansas, June 22, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - Storm complex overnight tonight into Monday morning will bring
   an elevated severe risk as well as a heavy rain threat that
   could lead to quickly developing flooding conditions.

 - Unsettled weather is expected to persist through much of the
   upcoming work week. There will be multiple opportunities for
   heavy rainfall and some severe weather.

 - Below average temperatures are forecast this upcoming work
   week, returning above average this upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Surface observations and analysis show a frontal boundary on the
doorstep of the CWA, draped along the KS/OK border. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to organize and cluster both along the of
boundary and out ahead of it. Hi-res models have been consistent
in showing a potent MCS riding the cold front as it progresses
south and eastward. Strongest cores embedded in the MCS will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts 60 to 70 mph, small (and
occasionally large) hail, and perhaps a tornado or two if storms
are able to stay ahead of the frontal boundary. The overall severe
intensity and threat are expected to decrease some as the storms
push south of I-40 and into western AR overnight, but the severe
potential will not completely go away until the MCS pushes south
and east of the forecast area sometime mid Monday morning. Heavy
to very heavy rainfall will also be associated with these storms.
In general, most areas have the potential to receive 1 to 3
inches through midday Monday. Latest suite of hi-res models show
very impressive isolated rainfall amounts of around 5 to 6 inches
by noon. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1 PM Monday for far
eastern OK and all of northwest AR. These higher- end amounts
seem reasonable given high PWATs, current/recent rainfall rates,
and consistency in hi-res models. However, there has been notable,
but slight south shift in QPF in the latest model data compared
to earlier runs. Regardless, areas in the Flood Watch have seen
and received a surplus of rainfall over the last couple of weeks,
so it will not take much for flooding and/or flash flooding to
occur.

There is still some uncertainty just how far south the cold front
advance before it stalls. Global models have been persistent
showing the frontal boundary stalling between I-40 and the Red
River by noon, while the 00z HRRR has the frontal boundary pushing
completely through the CWA at the same time. Will lean towards
the solution that the front will stall/oscillate just north of the
Red River in the afternoon and evening. Assuming this verifies,
the stalled frontal boundary may be the focus for late afternoon
or early evening thunderstorm development across southeast OK.
Another shortwave trough will eject off the Southern High Plains
early this evening and is anticipated to help form another MCS
that will push through portions of the CWA late tonight and into
Tuesday morning. Still numerous questions associated with this
next potential MCS with regards to timing, coverage, and
intensity. Current thinking is that locations south of I-40 would
be impacted the most if verified, having the best overall severe
and flooding potential through the remainder of the short-term
period.

Temperatures behind the front on Monday will warm into the low-
mid 80s, mainly for areas north of I-40. Meanwhile, near and south
of the front, temperatures will warm up into the mid-upper 80s to
near 90 degrees along the Red River. Overnight lows Monday night
will range from mid-upper 60s to lower 70s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The weather pattern remains very similar and unsettled through
midweek, with northwest/west-northwest flow aloft and multiple
embedded shortwave trough flowing through. The stalled frontal
boundary will gradually lift northward Tuesday evening, becoming
much less defined during the daytime Wednesday. Another shortwave
trough will eject off the Rockies late Tuesday evening, which may
generate and push another MCS through the region late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Both severe and flooding concerns will
increase late Tuesday night if this scenario verifies.

As mid/upper-level ridging begins to build into the area late in
the upcoming week, precipitation chances will gradually decrease
into next weekend. However, there will be at least low
precipitation chances each day through at least Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level ridging will have much more of an
influence, ending precipitation chance and increase temperatures
for the weekend.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A complex of storms will move rapidly southeast overnight
impacting all sites. Strong to severe wind gusts are likely at
most sites with the possible exception of KBVO. During the storms,
conditions will likely fall to IFR or lower, with MVFR conditions
likely once the storms pass, lasting well into Monday afternoon.
A return to VFR conditions is expected by late Monday afternoon at
all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  70  85  73 /  30  40  50  70
FSM   87  72  86  73 /  60  60  60  40
MLC   87  73  88  75 /  70  60  60  40
BVO   80  65  84  70 /  20  30  40  70
FYV   83  68  83  70 /  50  50  50  50
BYV   80  65  81  68 /  40  20  50  60
MKO   83  70  84  72 /  50  60  70  60
MIO   80  66  84  70 /  20  20  50  70
F10   84  70  85  72 /  60  60  60  50
HHW   88  73  88  75 /  80  60  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ057-058-062-063-068-
     069-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
     120-129-219-220-229.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
114 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-221815-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
114 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...SEVERE POTENTIALS AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT INTO MONDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM North of Interstate 40...After Midnight South
			of Interstate 40.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 4 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Through Early Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances continue across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this afternoon with a limited severe potential
for locally strong winds. Much of this activity should weaken with
the loss of daytime heating.

Thunderstorms become more likely late this afternoon into this
evening for northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas ahead of a
cold front moving into the region. These storms are forecast to
develop into a storm complex and push through eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas tonight and Monday morning. Storms late
afternoon into early evening will have the potential for all
modes of severe weather including a tornado threat. Mid to late
evening, severe potentials transition to mainly a damaging wind
threat into the overnight hours tonight. The greater severe
potential is along and north of Interstate 40, with the greater
tornado potential along and north of Highway 412.

In addition to the severe risk, a heavy rain threat exists into
Monday as excessive amounts of moisture will be in place ahead of
the cold front. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to locally greater
than 3 inches are forecast through tonight, which could quickly
increase flash flood concerns and rises of streams and rivers.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy
			  		     Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous
			Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms are expected to be ongoing Monday morning across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas and remain possible through the day as
the cold front sags southward over the region. Additional storm
chances continue Monday night and Tuesday with the boundary
lifting back northward and a disturbance moving across the region.
Again, a limited severe potential and a heavy rain threat persist
through Tuesday. Storm chances remain forecast for the second half
of the week as well from another disturbance moving into the
region Wednesday and Thursday. Updated forecasts should be
monitored through the week for the specifics involving these
threats.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Preparations for a severe weather and heavy rain event should be
readied for tonight into Monday. Those with interests along creeks
and streams should prepare to act if warnings are issued as
flooding conditions could quickly develop.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

OKZ049-221030-
Pushmataha OK-
429 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PUSHMATAHA COUNTY THROUGH 530 AM
CDT...

At 429 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Clayton Lake State Park to 6 miles northwest
of Moyers. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Antlers...                        Clayton Lake State Park...
Snow...                           Stanley...
Moyers...                         Nashoba...
Kosoma...                         Kellond...
Dunbar...                         Cloudy...
Eubanks...                        Darwin...
Finley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 9578 3451 9574 3451 9567 3454 9567
      3459 9558 3451 9495 3450 9505 3424 9505
      3419 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 267DEG 43KT 3455 9529 3436 9575

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
434 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Wilburton          34.90N 95.33W
06/22/2026  M58 MPH          Latimer            OK   Mesonet

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
447 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

OKZ061-062-067-068-221030-
Cherokee OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
447 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...SOUTHERN
MAYES...WAGONER AND CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM CDT...

At 447 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northeast of Oneta to 3 miles northwest
of Hulbert. Movement was south and east at 10 to 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Tahlequah...
Wagoner...                        Coweta...
Catoosa...                        Verdigris...
Chouteau...                       Inola...
Locust Grove...                   Okay...
Hulbert...                        Porter...
Tullahassee...                    Peggs...
Sequoyah State Park...            Oneta...
Redbird...                        Mazie...
Lost City...                      Murphy...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 236 and 242.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 1100 AM CDT for northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9501 3616 9501 3616 9495 3580 9497
      3587 9573 3624 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0947Z 280DEG 27KT 3607 9567 3597 9518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

ARZ010-011-119-120-129-219-220-OKZ068>070-172-272-221045-
Madison AR-Washington AR-Central and Southern Franklin AR-
Southern Crawford AR-Northern Crawford AR-Northern Franklin AR-
North and Central Sebastian AR-Northern Sequoyah OK-
Central and Southern Sequoyah OK-Adair OK-Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-
458 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...
NORTHERN SEBASTIAN...WASHINGTON...SEQUOYAH...ADAIR...EASTERN CHEROKEE
AND EAST CENTRAL MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM CDT...

At 458 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles northeast of Tahlequah to 7 miles
southwest of Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area. Movement was south at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Fayetteville...
Van Buren...                      Tahlequah...
Sallisaw...                       Stilwell...
Ozark...                          Huntsville...
Cedarville...                     Mountainburg...
Natural Dam...                    Farmington...
Alma...                           Prairie Grove...
Muldrow...                        Roland...
Elkins...                         West Fork...
Lincoln...                        Mulberry...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 42.
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 285 and 314, and
between mile markers 321 and 328.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 6.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 22 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Oklahoma. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
also remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for northwestern and west
central Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 9349 3588 9352 3576 9352 3577 9370
      3537 9372 3537 9376 3542 9380 3537 9381
      3541 9497 3541 9501 3546 9504 3545 9507
      3541 9509 3541 9519 3612 9496 3608 9345
      3597 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0958Z 007DEG 32KT 3593 9494 3589 9348

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

OKZ276-376-221045-
Southern Le Flore OK-Central Le Flore OK-
511 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
THROUGH 545 AM CDT...

At 511 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles east of Howe to 7 miles southwest of
Octavia. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Heavener...                       Octavia...
Big Cedar...                      Hodgen...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 9460 3488 9445 3451 9446 3451 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1011Z 264DEG 36KT 3495 9459 3444 9478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
513 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

OKZ049-053-221100-
Choctaw OK-Pushmataha OK-
513 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM CDT...

At 512 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Antlers, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Antlers...
Boswell...                        Fort Towson...
Sawyer...                         Rattan...
Soper...                          Hugo Lake State Park...
Kent...                           Goodland...
Messer...                         Raymond Gary State Park...
Oleta...                          Grant...
Ord...                            Fallon...
Sobol...                          Frogville...
Unger...                          Corinne...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9551 3388 9554 3393 9556 3394 9560
      3389 9569 3390 9575 3387 9577 3387 9581
      3395 9594 3412 9594 3415 9597 3416 9578
      3424 9578 3426 9505 3424 9505 3424 9515
      3394 9516 3396 9523 3387 9529 3387 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1012Z 295DEG 35KT 3424 9558

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH