What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 12, 1:16 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and early evening. A few may become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat.
- Numerous showers and storms can be expected Sunday, and a few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat.
- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, but chances for showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 1:16 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
216 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and early evening.
A few may become strong to severe with damaging winds the
primary threat.
- Numerous showers and storms can be expected Sunday, and a few
of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
the primary threat.
- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, but chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Convection has been developing along an outflow boundary that is
moving across our area, and a weak summertime frontal boundary is
still off to our north and west. Currently, MLCAPE values around
1500 to 2000+ J/kg over much of the area and DCAPE values near or
exceeding 1000 J/kg indicate an environment favorable for strong
storms with the potential for damaging winds this afternoon into
early evening hours. Shear is weak, so the primary threat will be
damaging winds with a much lower threat of large hail. PWAT values
in the 1.7 to 2 inch range will also allow for heavy downpours
and the possibility of localized flooding if any areas see
repeated or prolonged bouts of heavy rain. CAMS have been handling
the convection extremely poorly overall, which is not too
surprising given the lack of significant forcing. How much if any
redevelopment later this afternoon will occur behind the initial
convection is still uncertain, although a few of the CAMS do show
convection developing and moving mainly across portions of SW VA
and NE TN later this afternoon/evening which is the area closer to
the better forcing. These northern areas currently look to be the
most under threat for stronger storms later today, although the
threat further south is non-zero.
Weak summertime fronts do not often lend themselves to high
confidence about how far they will progress before stalling and this
one is not an exception to the rule, but it currently looks like
the front will stall not far from our southern border by early
Saturday. Models differ on how much convection will be around during
the day Saturday, but southern areas closer to the front and the
higher mountain terrain would be the areas most likely to see a
shower or storm during the afternoon.
By Saturday night and Sunday, short wave energy will be moving
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, dragging a stronger cold
front through our area. Details such as timing of the front will
matter and are still unclear, but ensemble data suggests the
potential for significant CAPE and slightly more shear than today,
and a few storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
likely to be the primary threat. Torrential downpours will also be
possible. Will mention this threat in the HWO.
A broad trough will be over the eastern CONUS during the coming work
week. Overall, we will see below normal temperatures early then
temperatures will trend back to around normal by later in the week.
Models are in poor agreement for how much precipitation will be
around early in the week, but overall the NBM ensemble approach
shows drier conditions for the Monday through Wednesday time frame
with just a few isolated to scattered showers and storms around at
times. Another cold front is forecast to be approaching late in the
period with an increase in rain chances again late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Will be showers and thunderstorms around early in the period, with
highest confidence of occurrence at CHA. Will try to time periods
of highest probability with tempo and prob30 thunder groups.
Outside of any showers/storms, will go with a VFR forecast.
However, some lower clouds and/or fog development will be possible
late tonight although confidence of any impacts at the terminals
is too low to include for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 88 / 20 30 30 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 70 86 / 60 20 40 100
Oak Ridge, TN 69 88 70 85 / 50 20 50 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 88 66 85 / 50 10 40 100
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 12, 1:17 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
217 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-131830-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
217 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 /117 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this
afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may become strong to
severe, with damaging winds the primary threat. Localized flooding
may occur in any areas that see repeated or prolonged periods of
heavy rainfall.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
Sunday, and a few of these storms may become strong to severe with
damaging winds the primary threat.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Reports of severe weather and flooding are welcome today.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 12, 11:52 AM EST, 2 hours 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1252 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
TNZ081-082-098-099-121730-
Sequatchie TN-Bledsoe TN-Marion TN-Hamilton TN-
1252 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SEQUATCHIE...SOUTH CENTRAL
BLEDSOE...NORTHEASTERN MARION AND CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH
130 PM EDT/1230 PM CDT/...
At 1252 PM EDT/1152 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Dunlap, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Dunlap, Soddy-Daisy, Signal Mountain, Walden, Fairmount,
Red Bank, Cartwright, Flat Top Mountain, and North Chickamauga Creek
Gorge.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3506 8526 3531 8561 3532 8556 3534 8554
3534 8553 3535 8551 3541 8549 3541 8551
3542 8551 3540 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 289DEG 23KT 3532 8546
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
19Special weather statement, Jun 12, 12:32 PM EST, 2 hours 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
132 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
TNZ084-085-099>101-121815-
West Polk TN-Bradley TN-Hamilton TN-Meigs TN-McMinn TN-
132 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BRADLEY...SOUTHWESTERN MEIGS...
WESTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN MCMINN AND EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...
At 132 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Soddy-Daisy, or 13 miles north of Chattanooga,
moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Cleveland, Benton, Soddy-Daisy, Walden, Lakesite,
Charleston, South Cleveland, Harrison, and East Cleveland.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3499 8496 3519 8531 3538 8519 3530 8456
3499 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 287DEG 27KT 3525 8516
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
19Special weather statement, Jun 12, 12:53 PM EST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
153 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
NCZ060-TNZ085>087-101-121845-
Cherokee NC-West Polk TN-Northwest Monroe TN-Southeast Monroe TN-
McMinn TN-
153 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE...
NORTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN MCMINN AND MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH
245 PM EDT...
At 153 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Etowah, or near Athens, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Athens, Madisonville, Etowah, Englewood, Tellico Plains, Calhoun,
Riceville, Coker Creek, Violet, and Tariffville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3520 8429 3522 8432 3521 8435 3524 8436
3522 8438 3529 8475 3549 8472 3552 8402
3516 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 274DEG 16KT 3538 8455
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
19Special weather statement, Jun 12, 1:28 PM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
TNZ099>101-121900-
West Polk TN-Bradley TN-Hamilton TN-
228 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BRADLEY...SOUTHWESTERN
POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
At 228 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles northwest of Cohutta, or 8 miles north of
Ringgold, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Wildwood Lake, South Cleveland, Collegedale, McDonald, Conasauga, Red
Clay State Park, Flint Springs, Apison, Gap Springs, and Ooltewah.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3499 8511 3512 8503 3507 8458 3499 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 277DEG 18KT 3503 8506
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
19Special weather statement, Jun 12, 2:04 PM EST, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
VAZ001-121945-
Lee VA-
304 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...
At 303 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hensley Store, or 13 miles southwest of Harlan, moving east at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ewing and Rose Hill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3672 8320 3659 8323 3660 8335 3663 8349
3667 8348 3667 8342 3669 8337 3672 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 276DEG 15KT 3666 8341
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
DGSSpecial weather statement, Jun 12, 2:04 PM EST, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
VAZ001-121945-
Lee VA-
304 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...
At 303 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hensley Store, or 13 miles southwest of Harlan, moving east at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ewing and Rose Hill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3672 8320 3659 8323 3660 8335 3663 8349
3667 8348 3667 8342 3669 8337 3672 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 276DEG 15KT 3666 8341
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
DGS