Drought in Virginia, June 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
721 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

A few showers or storms possible for portions of the area early
this week and next weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A couple of disturbances support chances of showers, and
possibly a few thunderstorms, at times this week and next
weekend.

2) Areas of valley fog could develop and impact some early
morning commuters this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The upper level pattern initially consists of a trough over the
northeast US and a ridge across the south-central part of the
country. A shortwave traveling around the periphery of the trough
prompts low-end chances (15 to 30 percent) of showers as it grazes
the forecast area late tonight into Monday. Best potential for
precipitation will be in southern WV and southwest VA, while
drier conditions should persist to the north. Additional
showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, may develop as the
trough continues to pivot overhead on Tuesday. This time,
precipitation chances are projected to be highest along the
mountains.

Ridging builds into the area as the upper trough departs, resulting
in a period of drier weather from mid to late week. Chances of
showers and storms should then begin to work back into the area
during the weekend as ridging recedes and moisture increases
ahead of the next system.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Enough cloud cover should be present to limit fog development
across the majority of the area tonight into Monday morning.
Clearer skies and calm to light flow then provide better
potential for areas of fog to form in the valleys over the next
couple of nights. Although widespread fog is not anticipated
during this time, some early morning commuters could be affected
by reduced visibilities.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure sits north of the area while weak disturbances
pass south of the area through Monday. With showers and late day
thunderstorms associated with these disturbances remaining
south of the area, this maintains mainly VFR conditions.

Mid and high cloud associated with the disturbances will keep
overnight fog formation limited to the deeper valleys in and
near the mountains tonight. EKN is the TAF site most likely to
be impacted, where IFR visibility has been coded up 09-12Z.

Light and variable to calm surface flow tonight will become
light north to northeast Monday morning. Light west flow aloft
tonight will veer to north Monday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and duration of fog may vary from
the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in valley fog each morning this week
under high pressure.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...TRM