Scattered thunderstorms developed on the nose of a low level jet during the very early morning of June 1st. As they approached central Missouri, these thunderstorms congealed into a mesoscale convective complex.
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The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed on the nose of a low level jet during the very early morning of June 1st. As they approached central Missouri, these thunderstorms congealed into a mesoscale convective complex. This complex produced wind damage extending from Boone County through Washington County, and produced flash flooding in Columbia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 10:18 PM CST, 4 hours 11 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1118 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are forecast across much of the region overnight tonight through early Monday morning. A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall. - Dry weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday along with near normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Afternoon) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms in southeast Missouri continue to move southeast along/behind a composite outflow boundary. The environment downstream is characterized by moderate to high instability (>2000 J/kg SBCAPE), but less than 20 knots of effective shear. Not surprisingly, individual updrafts have ebbed and flowed with most of the activity staying subsevere. Individual cores are having a difficult time staying tied to their outflow boundaries. Once they get well behind the outflow, the updraft weakens and the storm gradually diminishes with time. That being said, one or two may produce wind gusts to 60 mph or hail to the size of quarters over the next few hours, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. Further north, mostly dry weather is favored for the remainder of the afternoon and most of the evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may form within a couple hours after dusk as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. However, more numerous storms should develop near the Missouri- Kansas border and move east/southeast with time overnight tonight into early Monday morning. The low-level jet itself (and its associated moisture convergence) is not particularly strong, only on the order of about 20-25 knots. This should be enough to ramp up the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but probably does lessen the overall threat for heavy rainfall/flash flood potential. The short- fused hydrological threat should stay confined to areas that have seen significant rainfall over the past 48+ hours (mainly Moniteau/Boone counties), and if these areas likely would need to see at least some training. The low-level jet does veer more to the west, so that is possible, but uncertain where that would occur. Therefore, have elected to not issue a flash flood watch for portions of central Missouri at this time, but that will be an area we will have to watch overnight given the wet antecedent conditions. There is also a marginal severe threat overnight with 2000+ J/kg of MUCAPE and 20-30 knots of effective shear. Hail up to the size of quarters and gusts to 60 mph will be the main threats, though hail may become more of the predominant threat late tonight as model soundings show a deepening inversion. Elevated convection can certainly produce wind damage, but it does get tougher the deeper your stable boundary layer becomes. Storms will be ongoing Monday morning, most likely across southeast Missouri. They should exit quickly off to the southeast. The rest of the day is expected to be dry, assuming we do get fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms that move through the area and exit Monday morning. That should help push the effective front to our south, with additional development in an area of weak surface convergence more likely closer to the Missouri-Arkansas border. Did keep 20-30% PoPs in southeast Missouri however for Monday afternoon in case the aforementioned preceding round of convection is not as widespread as forecast. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Next Sunday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 (Monday Night - Thursday) A backdoor low-level cold front will finish pushing through the mid- Mississippi Monday night, with a real air mass change expected. Seasonably cool nights (lows in 50s) along with near normal highs (low 80s) are forecast along with plenty of sunshine. (Thursday Night - Next Sunday) Moderating temperatures are forecast late this week as low-level winds turn out of the southwest behind a departing surface ridge axis. Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement that the mid/upper level ridge axis will weaken and shift slightly east Friday into Saturday, which may allow a cold front to drop into portions of the area and bring a chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Given the southwest flow aloft across the southeastern CONUS, this front is more likely than not to stall out as well and prolong the threat for showers and thunderstorms at least through the remainder of next weekend. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night) Issued at 1106 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026 The focus for impacts this period continues to be showers and thunderstorms through this morning. The main corridor for these showers and thunderstorms will stretch from near KCOU and KJEF east-southeastward through KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS. KUIN has a low chance of being grazed by this activity, though confidence in this occurring is dwindling. Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall that will reduce visibilities to MVFR and even IFR flight categories, and there is a very low chance for gusty, erratic winds and small hail at KCOU and KJEF. Showers and thunderstorms will move south of the local terminals by mid morning, with confidence high in VFR flight conditions through the remainder of the day. Elmore && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 156 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:29 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed numerous trees in Boone County extending from near Hallsville southwestward through Midway and southeastward from there through Ashland. Nearly all of these trees fell onto roads, blocking them.
Thunderstorm winds snapped and uprooted numerous trees around Taos.
Heavy rain resulted in flash flooding on Creasy Springs Road where a water rescue took place. Elsewhere, a vehicle stalled in flood waters. The fire department had to rescue the occupant by boat.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree onto a home on Maddox and Fowler in Overland.
Thunderstorm winds downed two tree on Sunlight Road in Belgrade.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, June 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1334149, 1334150, 1334148, 1334152, 1334153.