Flash Flood in Vermont, June 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
215 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made at this time. Rainfall is on
track to end during the pre-dawn hours with quieter weather expected
through Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...

1. Flood watch remains in effect through 8 AM this morning.

2. Cooler and drier weather to start the week followed by
unsettled weather Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 214 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We continue to see widespread rainfall across Vermont
this morning with the main focus on heavier rainfall being across
Rutland Windsor Counties. There is one flash flood warning in effect
for Rutland County where over 2.5 inches of rain was observed within
2 hours. There was one strong thunderstorm that dropped 2 inches in
one hour followed by some steadier moderate rainfall. It's still
raining in the area where the warning is in effect and we could
still see another half into to an inch of rainfall. This one storm
was an outlier and likely interacted with a pocket of instability
that had yet to be tapped into. Rainfall right now is largely
stratiform with limited convective components which will limit the
flash flood threat given rainfall rates between 0.5" and 0.75" per
hour. We will likely cancel the watch ahead of the 8 AM expiration
time as rainfall will likely have moved east by that point.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the passage of the cold front this morning, we
will be under the influence of an upper level trough once again. A
return to more seasonal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s is forecast through the upcoming weekend with lows in the
50s and 60s. Broad cyclonic flow could yield some isolated to
scattered diurnal shower chances today and Tuesday but nothing
significant of note. On Wednesday, an upper level trough with a weak
reflection in the MSLP fields will yield widespread showers across
New York but lower chances across Vermont with greater instability
present across northern New York.

Widespread rainfall is expected on Thursday from a quick hitting
lower pressure system that will race through the St. Lawrence Valley.
This has all the makings of a winter-like Colorado low racing
through the central US into Canada. An impressive plume of 1.75"
PWAT values will advect into the North Country and northern New York
and produce some periods of moderate to heavy rainfall on Thursday.
Luckily, a strong jet streak within the synoptic trough will force
this system to push through the region quickly which will likely
preclude any hydrological issues. The potential for strong to severe
storms also seems quite low as rainfall is expected to move in close
to sunrise.

Unsettled weather will continue Friday and into the weekend as the
upper level trough builds southward as several shortwaves help
amplify the trough amplitude. Several rounds of showers, especially
during the afternoon hours, are possible Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday with steep low level lapse rates due to a pocket of colder
air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly MVFR flight conditions are expected
through the next couple of hours due to a combination of moderate
rain across Vermont and low ceilings ahead of a cold front.
Intervals of VFR conditions have been occurring even within the
rain, with ceilings and visibilities bouncing at all terminals.
Improvement to VFR is largely occurring from west to east as drier
air filters in. The only site expected to see IFR conditions through
the period is SLK, although confidence in prevailing IFR is only
moderate given recent observations. Still, think low ceilings with
at least temporary IFR conditions at times through 12Z at SLK can be
expected with moist conditions and subsidence bringing cloud bases
back down until the clouds are gradually mixed out during the
morning after sunrise. Winds will trend breezy out of the west after
12Z, with some gusts 15 to 20 knots likely.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002>010-016>018.
NY...None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay
AVIATION...Kutikoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
219 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001-011-019>021-160630-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Rutland-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor-
219 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, northwest
Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VTZ002>010-016>018-160630-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-
219 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Vermont, northeast
Vermont and northwest Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A cold front will bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the
region this afternoon and evening. Some may be strong to locally
severe with damaging wind gusts. In addition, heavy rainfall is
expected with flash flooding possible this afternoon into the
overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1115 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VTZ010-011-019>021-150400-
Eastern Rutland VT-Western Rutland VT-Western Windsor VT-
Eastern Windsor VT-Orange VT-
1115 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE...RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1115 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wallingford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rutland, Woodstock, Killington, Ludlow Village, Rutland City,
Wallingford, Rutland - Southern Vermont Airport, Pomfret, Plymouth,
Hartland, West Rutland, Ira, Mount Holly, Sharon, Mount Tabor,
Shrewsbury, Danby, Lake St. Catherine, Bridgewater, and Pittsfield.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 89 between mile markers 1 and 33.
 Interstate 91 between mile markers 59 and 61, and between mile
markers 63 and 78.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4330 7282 4330 7297 4329 7299 4330 7298
      4331 7325 4345 7325 4399 7263 4374 7226
      4369 7231 4360 7234 4357 7238 4351 7240
      4328 7282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 236DEG 41KT 4345 7294

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clay