What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 15, 7:29 AM CST, 3 hours 19 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 929 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with localized pockets of damaging wind gusts impacting trees and power lines.
- The potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding exists today through Wednesday, especially in Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia.
- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to continue through tonight. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local officials.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 7:29 AM CST, 3 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
929 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 929 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
- A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon with localized pockets of damaging wind gusts
impacting trees and power lines.
- The potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding exists
today through Wednesday, especially in Southeast Alabama and
Southwest Georgia.
- A High Risk of rip currents is forecast to continue through
tonight. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high
risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local
officials.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Forecast is largely on track with no updates needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
For today, another active day is expected as waves of eastward
moving thunderstorms with embedded heavy rain ahead move into the
area ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A very moist
airmass will support high convective coverage capable of
producing localized flooding, frequent lightning, and strong-gusty
winds. The greatest chance of heavy rain is across the Wiregrass
and Flint River Valley where a marginal to slight risk (level 2 of
4) of excessive rainfall is in place. Any training and/or
backbuilding storms will enhance flood potential.
Forcing from the front is likely to keep convection lingering into
the evening despite the loss of daytime heating. Regarding the
chance of severe weather today, DCAPE will be less than the past
couple of days due to further moistening of the airmass. However,
the environmental flow is actually forecast to be quite strong for
June standards locally with westerly 850 mb winds of 25-30 knots
expected. This could add some momentum to the thunderstorm wind
gusts today in what will still be a high CAPE environment. We
can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms with gusty winds.
High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s to low
90s with peak heat indices generally from 95-105F. Lower rain
potential along the coast makes the beaches an attractive outdoor
option, but stay cognizant of the rip current risk and beach flags
if visiting today.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
The wet pattern will continue through much of the work week thanks
to the expected lingering presence of a stagnant frontal boundary
attendant to a broad northern stream upper trough. Further
complicating matters is the potential for a slug of tropical
moisture lifting north from the central Gulf Coast and interacting
with the front along the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. Rain
chances are therefore high nearly areawide for the remainder of
the long-term period, maximized during the afternoons. Localized
flooding will remain possible with the heaviest downpours.
Widespread highs in the 80s are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday as
cloud cover increases amidst rain-cooled air. Readings increase to
the upper 80s-low 90s from Thursday into next weekend. Overnight
lows in the 70s will remain common.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
More widespread coverage of SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon
and evening. Have included TEMPO groups at all terminals except
ECP with a PROB30. Cannot rule out brief restrictions in heavier
TSRA, otherwise VFR. Tonight, guidance indicates a potential for
restrictions in low clouds, highest at ABY, but this remains a
low probability. Given the uncertainty, maintained VFR for now.
Westerly winds around 5 to 10 kts through the 12Z TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Moderate west to southwest breezes will prevail for the couple of
days with some local enhancements near the coast due to the sea
breeze. The highest forecast rain chances are currently Tuesday
and Wednesday when a frontal boundary sags into the Deep South.
Maritime convection will pose a gusty wind, frequent lightning,
and a waterspout threat. Winds will turn more southerly by the
middle to end of the week and remain elevated.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
An increasingly wetter pattern will take shape starting today when
a slow moving front sags south towards the area. High rain chances
are forecast generally along and north of I-10 with wetting rains
expected. West to southwest winds prevail in addition to daily
afternoon seabreezes.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
For today through Wednesday, a marginal to slight to risk of flash
flooding continues to be a concern, mainly across the western and
northern halves of the area. A slow moving frontal boundary
coupled with high preciptable water values is expected to result
in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rain. Current flash flood guidance shows that it would take about
3-5 inches of rain in a 3 hour period to result in flash
flooding, or 4-6 inches of rain in a 6 hour period. River remain
on the low side from the ongoing drought conditions, so
significant riverine flooding is currently not expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 92 74 86 73 / 90 50 80 60
Panama City 89 76 86 75 / 40 40 60 80
Dothan 89 71 79 70 / 90 60 80 80
Albany 91 71 80 70 / 90 70 90 80
Valdosta 92 72 85 71 / 90 50 80 70
Cross City 92 77 91 75 / 20 40 40 50
Apalachicola 89 79 87 77 / 10 10 50 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ108-112-114.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 15, 9:33 AM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1133 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
FLZ016-017-027-115-127-326-151615-
Gadsden FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Northern Liberty FL-
Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
1133 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WAKULLA...SOUTH CENTRAL
GADSDEN...EAST CENTRAL LIBERTY...SOUTHWESTERN LEON AND NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...
At 1133 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles south of Greensboro to 16 miles
southwest of Midway to 9 miles west of Crawfordville to 14 miles
southwest of St. Marks. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Crawfordville, Sopchoppy, Shadeville, Panacea-Wakulla Airport, Arran,
Hilliardville, Tully, Panacea, Shell Point, Medart, Wakulla Beach,
Buckhorn, Spring Creek, Bloxham, and Liveoak Island.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3023 8463 3028 8473 3030 8472 3029 8475
3033 8483 3049 8469 3034 8442 3028 8436
3007 8421 2996 8438 2996 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1533Z 244DEG 11KT 3035 8473 3027 8457 3017 8451 3004
8440
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
58-REESESpecial weather statement, Jun 15, 9:35 AM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1035 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
FLZ009-010-151615-
Holmes FL-Washington FL-
1035 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM CDT...
At 1035 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bonifay, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Chipley, Bonifay, Bradford, Caryville, Wausau, Westville,
Hinsons Crossroads, Brock Crossroad, Orange Hill, Holmes County
Airport, Whitehead Crossroads, Holmes Valley, Gilberts Mill, Five
Points, Hulaw, Smyrna, Sunny Hills, Poplar Head, and Sylvania.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3089 8558 3087 8558 3086 8560 3083 8560
3083 8555 3064 8547 3056 8580 3070 8586
3070 8585 3071 8586 3075 8588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1535Z 254DEG 20KT 3072 8576
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
58-REESESpecial weather statement, Jun 15, 9:47 AM CST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1147 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
FLZ013-016-326-151630-
Gadsden FL-Calhoun FL-Northern Liberty FL-
1147 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN
THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...GADSDEN AND NORTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES
IN BIG BEND FLORIDA THROUGH 1230 PM EDT/1130 AM CDT/...
At 1147 AM EDT/1047 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles north of
Blountstown to 10 miles south of Chattahoochee to near Greensboro.
Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Quincy, Midway, Greensboro, Gretna, Freemont, Rock Bluff, Littman,
Juniper, Douglas City, Selman, Florence, Hosford, Rosedale, Santa
Clara, Shady Rest, Quincy Airport, Lowry, Wetumpka, Sawdust, and
Mount Pleasant.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3066 8480 3067 8457 3062 8445 3047 8450
3034 8485 3049 8486 3050 8498 3055 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 255DEG 22KT 3054 8507 3055 8491 3051 8479 3039
8480
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
58-REESESpecial weather statement, Jun 15, 9:56 AM CST, 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
FLZ010>013-151645-
Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Jackson FL-Washington FL-
1056 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...
NORTHEASTERN BAY...NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...
At 1056 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vernon, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Bradford, Alford, Wausau, Betts, Orange Hill, Kynesville,
Ridgetop, Greenhead, Holmes Valley, Steele City, Gilberts Mill,
Center Lake, Round Lake, Porter Lake, Smyrna, Spring Hollow, Sunny
Hills, Compass Lake, and Sylvania.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3045 8576 3064 8580 3076 8536 3052 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1556Z 256DEG 22KT 3058 8570
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
58-REESESpecial weather statement, Jun 15, 10:10 AM CST, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1210 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
FLZ016>018-027-118-127-128-151700-
Gadsden FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Coastal Jefferson FL-
Inland Jefferson FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Coastal Taylor FL-Leon FL-
1210 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA...
SOUTHEASTERN GADSDEN...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...WEST CENTRAL TAYLOR
AND SOUTHERN LEON COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...
At 1210 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Midway to 8 miles south of
Tallahassee State College to near St. Marks. Movement was east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Woodville, Tallahassee State College, Florida State
University, St. Marks, Midway, Crawfordville, Florida A and M, Doak
Campbell Stadium, Wakulla, Lake Bradford, Shadeville, Leon Sinks,
Gaither Community Center, Wakulla Springs, Walker Ford Community
Center, South City, Eight Mile Pond, Griffin Heights, and Bethel.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3031 8448 3043 8471 3046 8471 3053 8445
3035 8408 3008 8387 3006 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 263DEG 20KT 3043 8460 3033 8438 3008 8418
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
58-REESESpecial weather statement, Jun 15, 10:43 AM CST, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1243 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
FLZ016>018-027-028-118-GAZ156-151715-
Inland Taylor FL-Gadsden FL-Coastal Jefferson FL-Inland Jefferson FL-
Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-Decatur GA-
1243 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GADSDEN...SOUTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR...EASTERN LEON AND SOUTHEASTERN
DECATUR COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...
At 1243 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Greensboro to near
Tallahassee to 17 miles east of St. Marks. Movement was east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Tallahassee, Tallahassee State College, Florida State University,
Midway, Quincy, Havana, Florida A and M, Doak Campbell Stadium,
Chattahoochee, Gretna, Attapulgus, Cody, Douglas City, Gaither
Community Center, Tallahassee Memorial Hosp, Florence, Walker Ford
Community Center, Jamieson, South City, and Griffin Heights.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3017 8392 3018 8395 3016 8396 3015 8401
3041 8431 3064 8490 3068 8487 3078 8454
3071 8438 3069 8438 3069 8433 3050 8391
3033 8379 3031 8382 3030 8377 3021 8370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 266DEG 23KT 3068 8468 3047 8418 3021 8393
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
58-REESENOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1346324, 1346325, 1346326, 1346327, 1346328, 1346329, 1346333, 1346330, 1346334, 1346331, 1346335, 1346332, 1346336, 1346337, 1346338, 1346339, 1346340, 1346341, 1346342, 1346294, 1346343, 1346344, 1346345, 1346346, 1346292, 1346347, 1346348, 1346349, 1346350, 1346355, 1346356, 1346351, 1346352, 1346357, 1346358, 1346353, 1346354, 1346359, 1346361, 1346362, and more.