Hail in Texas, May 6, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
836 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain/storm chances return for the middle to
  end of the week.

- A cold front will move through late Wednesday, with cooler
  temperatures expected Thursday.

- Temperatures rebound quickly this weekend along with low rain
  chances and highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued across much of the
Hill Country into portions of the I-35 corridor that is north of
San Antonio until 1 PM. Isolated severe storms will be capable of
large hail and strong winds. Adjusted the PoPs this morning and
into this afternoon given current trends and latest short term
guidance members.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Moisture continues to pool over South Central Texas this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front which is progged to arrive
Wednesday afternoon. With moderate instability and a retreating
dryline over the western CWA this evening, a few storms could
develop over the northern Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards
Plateau. They would primarily pose a large hail risk IF a storm
can form. Otherwise, increasing clouds are expected overnight as
ample moisture continues streaming northward.

Overnight into Wednesday morning, wouldn't be surprised to see some
drizzle or mist as low clouds and stagnant air sets up ahead of the
approaching front. Most locations should still climb into the 80s
Wednesday before the front passes through in the late afternoon and
evening hours. A dryline will progress eastward during the day
Wednesday, but capping is expected to remain rather strong, so the
threat for storms is low before the front arrives. A few strong to
severe storms with all hazards possible could develop along the
front, with the highest severe threat over Williamson, Lee, portions
of Fayette, and northern Bastrop. We'll carry a 20-30% chance for
storms Wednesday afternoon/evening, generally along and east of the
I-35 Corridor, but the risk is highly conditional. Most areas won't
see any rain at all Wednesday. Additional showers and storms
should develop after midnight Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning as cooler air filters into the region. This will likely be
more of isentropic type showers and storms but not as widespread
as some of our more recent rain events.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Thursday will be the coolest day of the week as cooler air behind
the front filters into South Central Texas. Highs should only climb
into the 60s and 70s but the cooldown will be short-lived. In any
matter, we'll take it, especially since cold fronts of this
magnitude are less common in the month of May.

Friday and beyond is when things start to get a bit more interesting
as a trough and associated closed low move eastward into northern
Mexico and southwest Texas this weekend. An active pattern continue
with this setup, with scattered showers and storms expected to
develop both Saturday and Sunday. Beyond that, models begin to
diverge on the pattern into next week. It looks like things will
remain active, but in terms of any specific day having better odds
at rain, it's difficult to say at this distance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A couple of severe storms formed just north of Val Verde County,
and it appears the rain chances are going to avoid the TAF
locations for the most part. In the early afternoon, there could
be a need to add a prob30 for AUS, but will leave that for the day
crew to monitor. Other light sprinkles and drizzle should have no
impacts on VSBY, but that might be enough to pull a CIG height
down below 1000 ft this morning. MOS guidances are a bit torn on
what the front will do with the NAM noticeably stronger with
post-frontal winds. With low confidence on which route to take
will side with the slightly stronger winds and less lowering of
CIGs as the previous couple fronts we got was also a bit stronger
than advertised.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  63  71  62 /  30  10  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  64  72  62 /  30  10  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  65  72  62 /  20  10  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            82  59  68  58 /  40   0  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  67  73  64 /  20  20  50  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  61  71  60 /  30  10  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             88  69  75  62 /  10   0  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  64  72  63 /  20  10  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  68  73  63 /  30  10  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  67  73  64 /  10   0  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           89  69  74  65 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...18