What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Huntsville, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 6, 12:21 AM CST, 5 hours 39 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 119 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
- There is a low risk for severe thunderstorms (mainly across northwest AL) during the pre-dawn hours Today. Large hail and gusty winds be the main threat with a very low risk of a tornado.
- A low risk for severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail, with a low risk of a tornado or two.
- There is a low to medium risk of excessive rainfall (with a low threat for localized flash flooding) through Tonight.
Area forecast discussion, May 6, 12:21 AM CST, 5 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
121 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
...New NEAR TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
- There is a low risk for severe thunderstorms (mainly across
northwest AL) during the pre-dawn hours Today. Large hail and
gusty winds be the main threat with a very low risk of a
tornado.
- A low risk for severe thunderstorms will continue this
afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be damaging
winds and large hail, with a low risk of a tornado or two.
- There is a low to medium risk of excessive rainfall (with a low
threat for localized flash flooding) through Tonight.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
Multiple clusters of deep convection have developed from southwest
TN through central AR into southeast OK within the maximum
moisture transport zone along a cold front. The activity has been
elevated thus far as outflow has been pushing southeast of the
updrafts. However, effective bulk shear of ~60kt and ample MUCAPE
will continue to provide at least a limited risk of large hail and
gusty winds. Damaging winds would appear unlikely unless the
storms become surface based. Expect the storms to track east
across north AL and southern middle TN from 08-14Z, with
additional clusters redeveloping late this morning into the midday
hours to our west and moving through during the afternoon. Inflow
dew points in the lower to middle 60s are found in MS into
southwest TN, which will eventually shift into north AL and
southern middle TN toward morning, and even reach the upper 60s to
around 70. PWs of 1.5 inches + are indicated which will lend
toward very heavy downpours. Outflow from the morning activity
may shift into our southern counties during the afternoon, which
may in turn shift the risk of surface based severe weather.
However, the risk for excessive rainfall and isolated flash
flooding may develop as repeated episodes of heavy downpours
occur north of the outflow. Forecast high temperatures will be in
the lower to middle 70s, only a couple degrees off of what we
have currently.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026
With time, convection to the north of this feature (but south of
the cold front) will become elevated, but may still be capable of
producing locally strong winds and hail. Due to a favorable
environment for echo training and very moist tropospheric profile
(featuring PWAT values of 1.7-1.9"), most locations will receive
2-3 inches of rain by the time precipitation ends early Thursday
morning, which will increase the risk for flash/areal flooding
(especially tomorrow evening when rain and elevated convection
could become fairly widespread).
Dry weather will return during the period from Thursday-Friday,
as zonal flow aloft weakens and a ridge of surface high pressure
shifts from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and
off the coast of NC. As this occurs, northerly flow will subside
on Thursday night, setting the stage for cool overnight lows in
the m-u 40s. The onset of light southerly return flow on Friday
will boost highs back into the u60s-m70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026
An upper level low pressure system situated over the Hudson Bay
region should slowly drift eastward from Ontario into Quebec as we
go through the weekend and early next week. This system will help
maintain general troughing along the eastern North American
domain. Lower heights as a result of large scale troughing will
tend to keep daily temperatures close to or below seasonable
norms. With the average trough weakening somewhat, it should not
be as chilly Friday night, with lows mostly in the lower 50s.
The cold front that went southward across the area during
Wednesday; by Friday evening should be stationary, extending in a
west to east manner from coastal Texas, across the Florida
Panhandle and off of the GA/FL coast. An overrunning of moisture
from the Gulf region, as well as upglide noted in the 300K region,
will make for an unsettled weekend across the Tennessee Valley.
The lifting of moisture in the lower altitudes as shown in the
isentropic view will bring lower end chances for showers mainly
over our more southern areas Friday night into Saturday night.
Deeper moisture returning northward will bring higher end rain
chances, along with some thunder mixed amongst the heavier showers
late Saturday into Sunday. Given that this setup is more of an
upglide/overrunning type event and there is minimal instability,
thunderstorms should remain "general" in intensity. Another cold
front should sweep in a west to east manner across the area late
Sunday into early Monday. Dry weather should return, just in time
for the new work week.
Far as temperatures, high temperatures Saturday, with more clouds
than sun and low rain chances to our south, should rise into the
mid/upper 70s. Even with rain chances, high temps Sunday should
rise into the lower 80s. Temperatures should cool down Sunday
night with lows in the mid/upper 50s. A bit cooler next Monday
with highs in the mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026
There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as VFR conditions will initially exist at the HSV/MSL
terminals. To our northwest, clusters of TSRA continue to slowly
evolve along a cold front from southwestern AR into western TN,
with outflow expected to reach northern AL during the early
morning hours. Thus, we have included SHRA as the prevailing
weather condition from 8-12Z, with a TEMPO for TSRA and low-MVFR
vsby/IFR cig during this timeframe. Present indications are that
this initial activity will quickly shift eastward and out of the
region late tomorrow morning, but with rapid redevelopment of
convection occurring in its wake, both along a remnant outflow
boundary (likely to be positioned south of the TN River) and along
the synoptic cold front (to our northwest). Due to uncertainty in
timing for this second round of convection, we have included
PROB30 groups from 16-20Z. AWWs for lightning, strong wind gusts
(perhaps as high as 50-55 knots) and hail may be needed at times
with storms both during the early morning and in the mid-day.
Persistent rain (accompanied by MVFR vsby/IFR cig) will occur
toward the end of the forecast period.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...70
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 6, 4:31 AM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
531 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
ALZ001-061115-
Lauderdale AL-
531 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY
THROUGH 615 AM CDT...
At 530 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
J P Coleman State Park, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Waterloo, Wright, Threet, and Zip City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3500 8757 3494 8757 3489 8801 3491 8804
3489 8810 3492 8816 3501 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 261DEG 28KT 3494 8817
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AMPSpecial weather statement, May 6, 5:11 AM CST, 49 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
611 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
ALZ001-061200-
Lauderdale AL-
611 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY
THROUGH 700 AM CDT...
At 611 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Underwood-Petersville, or 10 miles north of Florence, moving east at
40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Florence, Lexington, St. Florian, Underwood-Petersville, Anderson,
Green Hill, Zip City, Kingtown, and Whitehead.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3501 8781 3500 8741 3500 8721 3486 8722
3489 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 1111Z 268DEG 33KT 3498 8771
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AMPSpecial weather statement, May 6, 5:17 AM CST, 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
617 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
TNZ076-096-097-061200-
Franklin TN-Moore TN-Lincoln TN-
617 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MOORE...LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 700 AM CDT...
At 617 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Lewisburg to 9 miles east
of Pulaski to 12 miles northwest of Ardmore. Movement was east at 40
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Fayetteville, Lynchburg, Estill Springs, Ardmore,
Huntland, Petersburg, Tims Ford Lake, Lincoln, and Howell.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3541 8625 3539 8628 3538 8625 3537 8627
3534 8624 3536 8611 3535 8610 3516 8614
3499 8639 3499 8684 3526 8683 3525 8675
3531 8668 3533 8660 3537 8659 3536 8649
3532 8642 3535 8641 3536 8633 3541 8628
TIME...MOT...LOC 1117Z 270DEG 37KT 3536 8684 3517 8687 3506 8704
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
AMPSpecial weather statement, May 6, 5:51 AM CST, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
651 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
ALZ001>005-061230-
Lawrence AL-Lauderdale AL-Franklin AL-Limestone AL-Colbert AL-
651 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LIMESTONE...LAUDERDALE...
COLBERT...FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 AM CDT...
At 651 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lexington to 8 miles southeast of Cherokee
to Fairview. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Florence, Athens, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Sheffield, Tuscumbia,
Moulton, Red Bay, Rogersville, and Ardmore.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3465 8813 3501 8777 3499 8678 3487 8678
3467 8696 3464 8702 3468 8710 3458 8711
3430 8757 3432 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 262DEG 40KT 3498 8744 3465 8789 3437 8833
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
AMP