Texas, 2026Drought in Texas, January 1 to 27, 2026
January 1 to 27, 2026 · NWS EPZ · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
All areas of far west Texas were put into Moderate(D1) drought or better by the end of January.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
All areas of far west Texas were put into Moderate(D1) drought or better by the end of January.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 10:44 PM MST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 906 PM MST Wed Dec 31 2025
- Showers will begin reaching the ground in SW New Mexico as the calendar turns to 2026. A few very light showers may survive as they approach Las Cruces and El Paso early Thursday morning.
- Breezy to windy conditions will greet the New Year, with gusts 30 to 40 mph Thursday and Friday afternoon.
- Dry and warm weather is expected through early next week.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 10:44 PM MST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1044 PM MST Wed Dec 31 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 906 PM MST Wed Dec 31 2025
- Showers will begin reaching the ground in SW New Mexico as the
calendar turns to 2026. A few very light showers may survive as
they approach Las Cruces and El Paso early Thursday morning.
- Breezy to windy conditions will greet the New Year, with gusts
30 to 40 mph Thursday and Friday afternoon.
- Dry and warm weather is expected through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MST Wed Dec 31 2025
Widespread high and mid-level cloud cover has overspread the CWA
ahead of a shortwave trough set to top the upper level ridge
that's position along the upper half of the Rio Grande.
Precipitation (it's all rain with snow levels over 11,000 feet),
is attempting to push east of the Continental Divide, but despite
light radar echoes across most of Grant and Hidalgo Counties,
nothing appears to be reaching the ground, not too surprising
with 15-20 degree dewpoint depressions. Webcams west of Lordsburg
and in downtown Silver City all appear to be dry. Probably some
sprinkles above 6500 feet. In time, showers will start to reach
the ground, but most measurable precip will hold off until after
08-09Z as the shortwave trough/vort lobe approaches. HREF tries to
bring radar echoes as far as the Rio Grande and into the
Sacramento Mountains after dawn Thursday, but accumulated precip
is very spotty and generally around 0.01". That said, a scant
little sprinkle or rain shower may greet New Year's morning in El
Paso.
The shortwave trough will help induce lee cyclogenesis over the
Texas Panhandle tomorrow, with the tightening pressure gradient
bringing west winds 15 to 25 mph, and a few gusts 30 to 35 mph in
the afternoon as we dry out. Temperatures will climb into the
upper-60s to around 70 in the central lowlands, and a little
cooler in SW New Mexico.
A second shortwave trough will drop across northern New Mexico on
Friday, further boosting winds. WNW winds may gust closer to 40
mph on Friday afternoon.
Dry and warm conditions will last into early next week, with
lighter winds starting Saturday. The next system with precip
chances lurks at the end of the forecast period, Wednesday into
Thursday. Early projections show a classic Pacific cold front and
upper trough, which could bring precip chances and/or gusty winds.
Mountain snow can't be ruled out, but the trick with these systems
is usually the cold air moves in as the precip moves out. Plenty
of time for all this to change, however, but a promising sign of a
more active pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM MST Wed Dec 31 2025
Cloud decks are slowly lowering, but so far radar echoes have been
just virga in SW New Mexico. Precip will be more likely to reach
the ground after 08-09Z as a shortwave trough approaches and the
low levels have had some time to moisten up. Either way, light
showers and DMN and TCS are not expected to cause restrictions. A
few sprinkles or a brief shower could reach LRU and ELP closer to
dawn.
Breezy to windy WSW winds will develop Thursday afternoon, with a
few gusts near 30 knots possible at DMN and LRU after 20Z. Winds
should stay below AWW criteria at ELP, with sustained 14-16
knots, gusts up to 25 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1022 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. For
this afternoon, winds will be light with some variability under
increasing clouds. Low rain chances move into western areas this
evening, diminishing along and east of the RGV overnight into Thu
AM. With snow levels above 9kft, precip will fall as nearly all
rain with little to no accumulation. Two upper disturbances bring
breezy west winds for Thu and Fri afternoons, shifting more NW for
Fri. 20-ft winds of 10-20 mph are forecast each day. Min RHs will
be comfortably above critical levels Thu and Fri, so elevated fire
weather conditions are not expected. Dry with light winds for the
weekend. Temperatures will be above normal through the period.
Min RHs range from 10-20% this afternoon, then 30-60% through Fri.
Vent rates will be mostly poor today then fair to very good
through Fri.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 48 70 47 68 / 20 40 0 0
Sierra Blanca 45 65 44 63 / 10 30 0 0
Las Cruces 44 65 40 65 / 30 30 0 0
Alamogordo 38 63 37 64 / 10 30 10 0
Cloudcroft 36 42 31 43 / 30 50 10 0
Truth or Consequences 44 66 41 66 / 30 40 0 0
Silver City 44 55 40 56 / 70 50 20 10
Deming 46 68 41 66 / 40 50 10 10
Lordsburg 45 63 42 61 / 60 50 20 10
West El Paso Metro 49 68 47 67 / 20 40 0 0
Dell City 36 68 42 68 / 10 20 0 0
Fort Hancock 45 72 46 70 / 10 30 0 0
Loma Linda 45 61 43 61 / 10 30 0 0
Fabens 45 70 45 68 / 20 40 0 0
Santa Teresa 45 67 45 65 / 20 40 10 0
White Sands HQ 48 68 46 67 / 20 40 0 0
Jornada Range 40 67 37 66 / 20 40 0 0
Hatch 42 70 37 68 / 30 30 0 0
Columbus 48 69 45 66 / 40 50 10 10
Orogrande 41 65 39 64 / 10 40 0 0
Mayhill 42 57 36 58 / 20 30 0 0
Mescalero 36 54 32 55 / 30 40 10 0
Timberon 35 52 32 55 / 20 30 0 0
Winston 37 60 32 61 / 50 50 0 0
Hillsboro 45 65 39 65 / 40 40 10 0
Spaceport 39 67 33 65 / 30 30 0 0
Lake Roberts 40 55 35 56 / 50 50 20 20
Hurley 43 60 39 59 / 50 60 10 10
Cliff 42 61 38 63 / 70 50 20 20
Mule Creek 42 56 39 59 / 70 40 30 30
Faywood 46 60 40 60 / 50 50 10 10
Animas 47 65 42 63 / 60 40 20 0
Hachita 45 65 42 63 / 50 60 10 0
Antelope Wells 47 66 40 66 / 60 40 20 0
Cloverdale 48 58 43 58 / 60 40 20 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
FORECASTER...25-Hardiman
Drought, Salt Basin
- When
- January 1, 12:00 AM MST to January 27, 12:00 PM MST
- Where
- Salt Basin forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.456, -105.386 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The month started out with the eastern portion of the zone in Severe(D2) drought with Moderate(D1) drought over the far west. On Jan 27th, the entire zone was in Moderate(D1) drought.
Drought, Southern Hudspeth Highlands
- When
- January 1, 12:00 AM MST to January 27, 12:00 PM MST
- Where
- Southern Hudspeth Highlands forecast zone
- Reported by
- Drought Monitor
- Coordinates
- 31.456, -105.386 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The far eastern portion of the zone started out in Severe(D2) drought with Moderate(D1) drought elsewhere. On January 27th, the entire zone was in Moderate(D1) or Abnormally Dry(D0) drought conditions.
- Drought
- A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1306113, 1306115.