Drought in Florida, January 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
704 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 704 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

- A chilly New Years Eve is in store with freezing to near-
  freezing conditions tonight after midnight. Isolated patchy
  frost is possible.

- Rain chances remain high on Saturday, in addition to the
  potential for thunderstorms from a wave of low pressure. There
  is a low chance of a strong or severe storm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 704 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

The forecast is right on track. No forecast updates are
forthcoming this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 704 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

One last cold night for at least the next 7 to 10 days is on tap
this evening as we close out 2025. Overnight lows will be a few
degrees warmer than this morning, but widespread lows in the low
30s (with isolated colder spots approaching the upper 20s) is
expected. While dry conditions remain in place, some patchy frost
can't be ruled out, especially in locations where the wind drops
off for a few hours.

Through the remainder of the week, surface high pressure over the
Gulf will drift east into the weekend with low-level winds
gradually veering to be out of the southwest by Friday afternoon.
Our next weather system, a fast shortwave approaching from the
southern US, will move through the area on Saturday. While severe
weather probabilities aren't too high, enough shear and
instability could provide low chances for a strong or severe storm
in the afternoon. Given fairly straight hodographs, the main
concerns would be isolated strong/damaging wind gusts and possibly
hail in the stronger cores if any stronger instability can
materialize. The fast moving nature of this system will limit the
heavy rain potential with only a 10% chance that rainfall amounts
exceeding around 0.75 to 1.0 inches.

After the system moves through, dry conditions return but in the
absence of any significant cold air mass behind Saturday's front,
temperatures will generally remain around or slightly above normal
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

A dry and stable air mass will persist at the terminals through
Thursday. This will keep skies clear, and prevent any threat of
fog or low clouds. A surface high passing south of the terminals
over the Gulf will maintain light and gentle westerly breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 704 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

A high pressure center near coastal Louisiana this evening will
move to the southeast Gulf by late Friday, placing the waters on
it northern periphery. A low center will move east across Alabama
and Georgia Saturday morning, bringing an increase to fresh and
strong southwest breezes. A trailing cold front will move across
the waters on Saturday evening, preceded by a few strong
thunderstorms and then followed by a shift to moderate or fresh
northerly breezes. Winds will clock around easterly and decrease
by Monday, as high pressure passes by to the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

A steady warming and moistening trend gets underway to kick off
2026 with chances for wetting rains increasing on Saturday in
addition to the potential for thunderstorms. This should keep fire
weather concerns on the low side. While the chance for wetting
rains is fairly high with this next system, drought-busting
rainfalls are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1251 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

We are dry for the remainder of the week before the next chance
for rain arrives this weekend. Forecast amounts have remained the
same compared to previous updates and around a half inch to
nearly three-quarters of an inch (isolated higher) is forecast on
Saturday. While beneficial, these values will not provide much
long-term drought relief.

The entire Tri-State area continues to experience moderate (D1)
to extreme (D3) drought. The most afflicted places are the FL Big
Bend and South-Central GA.

For more local drought information & statements, visit the
following websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   34  64  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   44  64  51  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        34  63  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        31  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      31  63  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    33  65  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  42  63  50  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs