For the sixth consecutive month, much of the region experienced below normal precipitation, with deficits of 1 to 2 inches common during the month of January. Mean temperatures were above normal for much of autumn, but below normal during December and January.
Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
For the sixth consecutive month, much of the region experienced below normal precipitation, with deficits of 1 to 2 inches common during the month of January. Mean temperatures were above normal for much of autumn, but below normal during December and January. While precipitation was below normal for the month, a disturbance brought almost an inch of rainfall west of I-55, which led to modest improvement in the drought conditions. Elsewhere, the ongoing drought expanded across central and eastern Illinois. Streamflows, lake levels, and regional water tables remained well below normal.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 9:56 PM CST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 956 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fast-moving weather system brings light rain or a rain/snow mix this evening. - Northwest winds will increase tonight and early Thursday, leading to wind chills in the single digits and teens. - A significant warmup arrives early next week, with high confidence in temperatures rising well above seasonal averages Mon-Tue. && .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 A cold front is located along a line from roughly Burlington, IA to Lacon, IL eastward into Kankakee, IL. Light radar returns are noted near and ahead of the front, with most observations coming in just north of the forecast area reporting drizzle or snow. Drier air filtering in from the northwest is eating away at a lot of the available moisture, which may prevent much of this from reaching the ground. A short period of snow or drizzle remains possible (20-30% chance) near/north of I-74 into eastern Illinois over the next few hours. Air temperatures as of 9 pm are in the middle 30s, with values expected to drop near freezing closer to midnight as precipitation ends. Cannot rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle as we lose ice nuclei, but chances of that occurring appear very low. NMA && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 A weak clipper is currently moving through the Upper Midwest and will impact northern portions of central Illinois this evening. Latest HRRR and RAP runs indicate precipitation will begin as light rain late this afternoon, then end as rain or a rain/snow mix this evening, north of I-72. A strong cold front will push in from the north as precipitation ends, with plummeting temperatures as northwest winds increase. 12z HREF indicates a 50-90% chance of gusts exceeding 25 mph northeast of a Galesburg to Paris line overnight. Lows should fall to the teens and low 20s, pushing wind chills down into the single digits and teens for early Thursday. Winds to decrease Thursday morning with surface ridging building in from the northwest, however temps will remain cool with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A northwest to southeast oriented ridge axis remains in place Friday and Saturday, providing dry and cool conditions. For the start of the next week, deterministic models (ECMWF and GFS) are in good agreement regarding the breakdown of the cold pattern. An upper- level ridge amplifies over the central U.S. on Sunday, shifting the storm track to our north. High confidence exists for a warmup starting Monday as southwesterly flow develops. NBM data indicates high temperatures will climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s for Monday and Tuesday, which is approximately 15 degrees above the climatological norm. The ECMWF EFI highlights this temperature shift, and the CPC 6-10 day outlook reinforces the trend, showing a strong signal for above-normal temperatures across Illinois through the end of the first week of January. There is high confidence in dry conditions prevailing through Wednesday. 25 && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 956 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 A cold front is working through the area late tonight, shifting winds from the west to north. MVFR ceilings will be common through most of tonight with a chance for IFR ceilings for a brief period around or just after 06Z at northern airfields (KBMI, KCMI). Ceilings will start improving after 09Z from north to south as a drier airmass spreads in with surface ridging. Winds will turn light and variable on Thursday with speeds around 5 kts or less. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 211 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-012015- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler- Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott- Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby- Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 211 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. MJA
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe Drought (D2) was ongoing at the start of the month. An early month disturbance brought almost an inch of rain, resulting in modest improvement in the drought by mid-January.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe Drought (D2) was ongoing at the start of the month. An early month disturbance brought almost an inch of rain, resulting in modest improvement in the drought by mid-January.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe Drought (D2) was ongoing at the start of the month. An early month disturbance brought almost an inch of rain, resulting in modest improvement in the drought by mid-January.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. Continued below normal precipitation led to the Severe to Extreme drought persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Extreme (D3) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. Continued below normal precipitation led to the Extreme Drought persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Extreme (D3) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. Continued below normal precipitation led to the Extreme Drought persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. Continued below normal precipitation led to the Severe to Extreme drought persisting through the month. The community of Sullivan began requesting residents to implement voluntary water restrictions.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Extreme (D3) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. The cooperative observer in Charleston measured 0.63 inches of precipitation during the month of January, which was 1.91 inches below normal. The continued below normal precipitation resulted in Extreme Drought persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. The cooperative observer in Danville measured 1.40 inches of precipitation for the month of January, which was 1.07 inches below normal. The continued below normal precipitation resulted in the Severe to Extreme drought persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe (D2) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. The cooperative observer in Decatur measured 0.81 inches of precipitation during the month of January, which was 1.59 inches below normal. The continued below normal precipitation resulted in Severe Drought persisting through the month. Water levels on Lake Decatur were almost 4 feet below normal by the end of the month, and Stage 1 water rationing was implement for the city of Decatur.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Extreme (D3) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. The cooperative observer in Urbana measured 1.30 inches of precipitation during the month of January, which was 1.01 inches below normal. The continued below normal precipitation resulted in Extreme Drought persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. The cooperative observer in Paris measured 1.30 inches of precipitation during the month of January, which was 1.51 inches below normal. The continued below normal precipitation resulted in Severe to Extreme Drought persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe (D2) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. The official observation for Lincoln measured 1.13 inches of precipitation during the month of January, which was 1.04 inches below normal. The continued below normal precipitation resulted in Severe Drought persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to the Fall of 2025, Severe (D2) Drought was ongoing at the start of the month. The cooperative observer in Normal measured 0.88 inches of precipitation during the month of January, which was 1.55 inches below normal. The continued below normal precipitation resulted in persistence or worsening of the drought, with Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought present at the end of January. The city of Bloomington asked residents to voluntarily conserve water.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to Fall of 2025, drought conditions worsened to Severe (D2) across Christian County by early January. Continued below normal precipitation led to the Severe Drought (D2) persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to Fall of 2025, drought conditions worsened to Severe (D2) across Shelby County by early January. Continued below normal precipitation led to the Severe Drought (D2) persisting through the month.
Due to a multi-month precipitation deficit dating back to Fall of 2025, drought conditions worsened to Severe (D2) across Sangamon County by early January. The official observation for Springfield measured 0.99 inches of precipitation for the month of January, which was 1.04 inches below normal. The continued below normal precipitation led to the Severe Drought (D2) persisting through the rest of the month. Water levels on Lake Springfield were about 1.5 feet below normal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, January 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1309426, 1309427, 1309428, 1309429, 1309430, 1309432, 1309433, 1309434, 1309436, 1309437, 1309439, 1309440, 1309441, 1309442, 1309431, 1309435, 1309438.