What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 9, 12:11 PM CST, 4 hours 11 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. A tornado cannot be ruled out Saturday.
- Elevated to critical fire weather will be possible Monday and Tuesday, but it will depend upon how much rain occurs in the days before.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 9, 12:11 PM CST, 4 hours 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
111 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and
evening with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging
winds. A tornado cannot be ruled out Saturday.
- Elevated to critical fire weather will be possible Monday and
Tuesday, but it will depend upon how much rain occurs in the
days before.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
Mid-level moisture is apparent across the Panhandles this morning in
the form of altocumulus. A mid-level perturbation aloft will
approach the Panhandles throughout the day, and we'll see a surface
low develop in northeastern New Mexico. This will lead to
strengthening southerly to southwesterly winds, culminating in 15-25
mph sustained winds with gusts up to 35 mph. As the perturbation
moves into the Panhandles around the mid-afternoon, we will see some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms increase starting in
eastern New Mexico into the far western Panhandles. This initial
activity will be very high-based with virga leading to strong
downdrafts being the primary hazard. Won't be able to rule out a dry
thunderstorm which may lead to a lightning-induced fire or two. This
activity will move east into slightly greater moisture content
leading to greater instability. Will be looking at MLCAPE between
500 J/kg to 1000 J/kg with effective shear values are expected to be
between 25-35 kts. Most likely storm mode will be multicells, but
can't rule out a supercell if instability and shear values are more
toward to higher end of the previously stated ranges. Activity
should wane this evening, though there is a 20-40% chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms to persist in the northern
combined Panhandles where the more favorable mid-level forcing and
moisture compensates for the nocturnal low-level stability.
PoPs will increase overnight to 40-60% in the northeastern combined
Panhandles when a cold front moves into the northern combined
Panhandles. This area will also be on the nose of a 850mb jet set up
across the Texas Panhandle.
Clouds are favored to hang around Friday morning but we should see
some clearing Friday afternoon, at least across the Texas Panhandle.
Meanwhile, most guidance suggests the early Friday morning front
will eventually stall out Friday afternoon. Similar to today, we
will see showers and thunderstorms become possible around the middle
of Friday afternoon, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of
the boundary. Low-level moisture content and instability will be
higher (MLCAPE 750-1250 J/kg) than today, but wind shear is expected
to be lower (20-25 kts). As such, expecting the most organized
storms to be multicells with a large hail and damaging wind threat.
A key detail that will need to be determined for the Friday
afternoon thunderstorm threat is where the boundary ends up when it
stalls. The 12km and 3km NAM, and a few other CAMs, bring the
boundary to the Canadian River Valley while the HRRR and the
operational GFS, and most of its ensembles, keep the boundary in the
northern combined Panhandles. Will lean toward the CAM solution of a
further south boundary, especially given the potential for showers
and thunderstorms along and behind the front in the northeastern
combined Panhandles.
Upper-level winds will become diffluent over the Panhandles, and
combined with additional mid-level embedded shortwave troughs, this
will favor increased chances for showers and thunderstorms the
Panhandles Friday night into Saturday morning. Moisture content will
increase overnight, and with the potential for multiple rounds of
rain, there is around a 10-40% chance for rain amounts to exceed
0.50" across the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing to begin Saturday morning,
but should eventually move out of the area by Saturday afternoon. An
upper-level trough will move toward the Panhandles Saturday as
moisture from the Gulf and the eastern Pacific continues to stream
into the area. Clouds are expected to persist through the morning,
but could clear out some degree in the afternoon at least in the
Texas Panhandle. If enough heating and destabilization can occur,
then another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely across the
area. MLCAPE values between 1000 J/kg to 2000 J/kg will be possible
where sufficient destabilization can occur. Effective shear values
should increase toward the mid/late afternoon hours to 25-35 kts,
suggesting predominately multicells with a low chance for a
supercell. Large hail and damaging winds are once again the primary
hazards, but given increased low-level shear and low LCLs, a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out. This is especially true in the late
afternoon/early evening hours when the nocturnal LLJ starts to
increase.
Precipitable water values will range from 0.8" to 1" in the western
Panhandles to 1" to 1.2" in the east, which is above the 99th
percentile in the climatology for the date. This, along with the
tall and relatively skinny CAPE profile, suggests the potential for
heavy rain with rain rates up to 1"/hr favored, but cannot rule out
2"/hr rates with a stronger thunderstorm. A couple limiting factors
for flash flood potential include very dry soil and the expected
progressive nature of thunderstorms (i.e., not expecting slow moving
or backbuilding thunderstorms).
Thunderstorms will eventually push east out of the Panhandles
Saturday night into Sunday. Another upper-level trough will swing
out of Mexico and into western and central Texas on Sunday,
resulting in a surface low in northeastern New Mexico. This will
strengthen winds across the area and, unfortunately, dry air will
move in from the west and we'll be left with a dry day with
temperatures in the upper-70s to mid-80s.
A larger upper-level trough will dip into the western Panhandles on
Monday and we'll see a surface low develop in the Central Plains.
This will lead to a breezy and dry day with some elevated to
critical fire weather conditions. The level of fire weather concerns
will depend upon how much rain falls over the next 72 hours.
Will have to keep an eye on the timing, track, and orientation of
the trough as it ejects across the Rockies on Tuesday. There is some
indication that low-level moisture could get drawn back into the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle and present a risk for a strong to
severe thunderstorm, but confidence is very low at this point. But
Tuesday could be another elevated to critical fire weather day,
again depending on how much rain we can get.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. There is a
low chance for thunderstorms at all terminals this afternoon into
the early evening, but the relatively higher chance is present for
Guymon. Thus, have added a PROB30 for Guymon but not the other
terminals, but amendments may be needed if confidence increases
later. Low-level wind shear will be possible at all terminals
tonight, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this
time. A cold front will move in from the north late tonight.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 9, 12:15 PM CST, 4 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
115 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-100700-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
115 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the western and
central Panhandles this afternoon and evening. Some of these could
be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail the primary
threats.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday for the
Panhandles. Some thunderstorms each day could be severe will all
hazards in play. Localized flooding is also possible, especially
on Friday and Saturday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed Thursday, Friday, and
Saturday.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 9, 2:45 PM CST, 1 hour 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
345 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
TXZ011-016-092115-
Deaf Smith TX-Oldham TX-
345 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...
At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Adrian, or 15 miles west of Vega, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Hereford, Vega, Adrian, Glenrio, Bootleg, and Simms.
This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 1 and 37.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3475 10304 3537 10304 3556 10244 3483 10236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 236DEG 17KT 3525 10269
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, Apr 9, 3:14 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
414 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
TXZ011-016-092145-
Deaf Smith TX-Oldham TX-
414 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OLDHAM AND NORTH CENTRAL
DEAF SMITH COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM CDT...
At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Adrian, or 10 miles west of Vega, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Vega and Adrian.
This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 12 and 41.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3563 10245 3563 10236 3526 10220 3511 10281
3531 10286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 255DEG 9KT 3526 10261
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, Apr 9, 3:19 PM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
419 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
TXZ016-092145-
Deaf Smith TX-
419 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...
At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Bootleg, or 13 miles northwest of Friona, moving
east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Simms and Bootleg.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3504 10304 3515 10266 3503 10262 3475 10264
3475 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 255DEG 9KT 3478 10288
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, Apr 9, 4:12 PM CST, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
512 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
TXZ007-011-012-092245-
Potter TX-Moore TX-Oldham TX-
512 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OLDHAM...
NORTHWESTERN POTTER AND SOUTHWESTERN MOORE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
CDT...
At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Boys Ranch, or 24 miles northeast of Vega, moving
northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Boys Ranch, Masterson, and Four Way.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3563 10224 3563 10216 3570 10216 3583 10202
3559 10180 3542 10218 3556 10231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 233DEG 21KT 3554 10218
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
HarrelSpecial weather statement, Apr 9, 4:14 PM CST, 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
514 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
TXZ011-012-092245-
Potter TX-Oldham TX-
514 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OLDHAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...
At 514 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Vega, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Vega and Wildorado.
This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 32 and 45.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3520 10251 3537 10250 3548 10216 3523 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 248DEG 15KT 3532 10238
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
Harrel