Damaging Winds in Iowa, April 9, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms is in effect
  for southeast Nebraska this evening. Large hail is the main
  threat along with strong wind gusts. PoPs remain at 70 to 90%
  from southeast Nebraska toward west central Iowa late this
  afternoon into the evening.

- Dry conditions expected for most locations Friday with highs
  in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Storm chances continue into the weekend and into early next
  week. Severe weather may return Monday areawide and again for
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

1818z KOAX radar imagery shows ongoing scattered showers and a
few storms over the forecast area. This activity appears driven
by some subtle forcing from a weak H5 shortwave trof trekking
over the KS/NE border and a push of H7-H8 warm advection. The
lift should help force more showers and few thunderstorms early
this afternoon.

As we head into the later afternoon and evening, a sfc boundary
currently draped over northeast Kansas into north central Missouri
will retreat northward. With the boundary retreating, should
see some moisture pool in our far south as dew points reach the
low 50s. Another shortwave will move over the southern half of
the forecast area by this evening, and with continued low level
warm advection should see an area of storms fire along the
boundary after 22z. 0-6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts combined
with MUCAPE of 500 to 1,000 J/kg should be available for storms
(especially along the Kansas/Nebraska border) to utilize
implying a threat for severe convection, with large hail the
primary threat along with some gusty winds.

Forecast soundings show much of the instability rooted aloft at H8,
and the low level jet should provide some forcing to lift parcels
upward allowing convection to develop. It is worth noting
though that areas over our far south could see some sfc based
convection. If convection can become sfc based, decent low
level curvature observed in hodographs would suggest at least some
tornado threat. At this time, the SPC currently has a slight
risk of severe storms along the Nebraska/Kansas border, with a
marginal risk encompassing the I-80 corridor and points to the
south.

Latest 12z CAM guidance shows convection developing along the
frontal boundary after 22z over southeast Nebraska, then moving
away from the area to the east southeast. Farther northeast
toward the Omaha metro area into western Iowa, should still see
continued showers and storms given the aforementioned low level
warm advection and the passing wave. Some backbuilding is
observed per model guidance, so an isolated flooding risk may
develop over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. PoPs remain
at 70 to 90% from southeast Nebraska toward west central Iowa
late this afternoon into the evening and taper off overnight.
Lows tonight cool to the 40s over our far south, while 30s are
expected in northeast Nebraska.

Friday will see sfc high pressure move over the Northern Plains
resulting in dry weather for most of the forecast area. Highs
reach the mid to upper 50s. Some low level warm advection on the
backside of the H8 high may lead to a few scattered showers
(15-30%) along the Nebraska/Kansas border. By late Friday
evening, should see the baroclinic zone lift through the area
resulting in continued showers and storms over our far southern
areas (30-55% chance).

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The H5 pattern for Saturday will see southwesterly flow return over
the Northern Plains as the ridge axis pushes east. With trofing
observed over the western CONUS, should see several waves eject to
the northeast toward the area and work with the low level moisture
flux resulting in 70 to 90% PoPs areawide Saturday. A few severe
storms are also possible (5% chance) this day, with a marginal risk
of severe weather encompassing much of the forecast area. Winds will
be fairly breezy that day too from the south at 20 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Warmer temperatures are expected with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Chances for showers and storms (30 to 50%) persist into Sunday, with
the highest chances expected in western Iowa toward southeast
Nebraska. Gusty southwesterly winds persist too helping us warm to
the mid 70s to mid 80s.

By Monday, the western CONUS longwave trof will start to dig in over
far southern California. The persistent southwest flow will allow
continued disturbances to eject northeastward into the Central
and Northern Plains. This results in continued PoP chances for
Monday afternoon (20 to 40%), while for Tuesday (40 to 65%), the
H5 trof finally lifts and approaches our area. SPC outlooks
currently show a good portion of the forecast area in a 15%
severe risk Monday, and areas southeast of a line from Seward to
Mapleton for Tuesday. Those with any outdoor plans Monday and
Tuesday should continue to pay attention to the forecast given
this severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Showers and storms are staying well south of KOFK this evening,
leaving this site VFR overnight into Friday. Storms will be
moving out of KOMA mostly by 01Z with a few scattered showers
lingering for a couple more hours. A band of MVFR cigs will
slide south into KOMA around 01Z and make it down to KLNK around
01-02Z this evening, expected to linger for a few hours before
clearing around 04Z. Meanwhile winds remain mainly out of the
north around 10KT. Once low clouds clear, expect VFR conditions
to prevail through the rest of the TAF period with winds
shifting to the northeast later in the morning on Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...McCoy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
135 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101845-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-
Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-Stanton-
Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-
Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-
Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
135 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, east central Nebraska, northeast Nebraska and southeast
Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
across southeast Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Large
hail and strong winds are the main threats with any severe storm that
develops.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There will be nearly daily thunderstorm chances this weekend into
early next week. Strong to severe storms will be possible at times,
especially on Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
618 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

IAZ069-092345-
Pottawattamie IA-
618 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 618 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Underwood, or 11 miles northeast of Council Bluffs,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Oakland, Underwood, Neola, Crescent, Hancock, McClelland, Botna
  Bend Park, Weston, and Arrowhead Park.

This includes Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 11 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 9589 4146 9580 4146 9516 4120 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 276DEG 43KT 4138 9577

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Chehak