Hail in Kansas, April 9, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening. Some storms will be
  severe with large hail and strong wind gusts being the main
  concern

- Stratus and drizzle expected Friday with some thunderstorms
  along the KS/OK border

- Strong south winds Saturday, warmer and more humid. Scattered
  marginally severe thunderstorms afternoon/evening

- Severe weather potential possible across central Kansas
  Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Midday surface analysis confirmed the frontal boundary had
retreated north into northern Kansas as expected, with a
trough/dryline near the Colorado border. Instability is forecast
to build through 7 pm, with NAM forecasting 1000-2000 J/kg
focusing on the northern zones, along and north of K-96, by
7 pm. Moisture will be marginally improved compared to
yesterday, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50. Frontal
boundary is expected to start moving south into the northern
zones this evening, and associated convergence is expected to
encourage thunderstorm development after 7 pm, mainly northeast
of Dodge City. Bulk shear of 30-40 kts will be enough for
updraft organization, with elevated supercell structures, but
again lack of better moisture will keep risks limited to mainly
1-2 inch hail from the strongest storms.

Cold front aggressively pushes south tonight through Friday
morning. Friday will be dramatically colder, and lowered
temperatures greatly from previous forecast. Coldest 12z
MET/NAM guidance shows most locations struggling to get out of
the 40s Friday daytime, with stratus, drizzle, cold advection,
and northeast winds all holding temperatures down. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in progress Friday
morning with the frontal passage, but this will transition to
more of a stratus/drizzle setup in the post frontal environment
Friday afternoon. Friday night, elevated instability may
encourage a hail threat as warm advection kicks in after
midnight.

Friday's temporary cold air mass will be shoved rapidly out of
SW KS Saturday morning, with the onset of strong south winds and
strong warm advection. Saturday will be mostly cloudy, very
windy, much warmer and more humid. South winds will easily gust
over 40 mph, stronger than NBM guidance. Stratus, drizzle and
scattered rain showers will prevail Saturday in the strong
moisture advection regime. Temperatures will rebound to the 70s
Saturday afternoon, and with sufficient clearing/CAPE, a
marginal 5% wind/hail probability is maintained by SPC. Most
significant severe hail/wind will likely remain south of SW KS
Saturday.

Dryline is forecast to mix eastward Sunday into the eastern
zones, replacing strong south humid winds, with strong much
drier southwest winds. NBM pops have a sharp reduction in pops
Sunday, which is correct with the loss of moisture and
instability. Any severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening would focus on the dryline southeast of Dodge City, per
SPC Day 4 outlook. Much more sunshine and strong downslope SWly
winds will send temperatures well into the 80s Sunday.

Primary longwave trough over the Great Basin Monday is progged
to finally eject through the Grand Canyon Tuesday morning, and
reach SW KS in a negatively tilted fashion Tuesday evening. NBM
pops are near zero Monday, with the dryline likely remaining
southeast of Barber county. Monday will remain warm, well into
the 80s, and with strong southwest winds and humidity falling to
10-15%, fire weather headlines are a near certainty Monday
afternoon.

We will have to watch Tuesday carefully, as the primary trough
ejects onto the plains. Most of SW KS will hold onto dry SW
winds behind the dryline, but the dryline may get pulled west
into the eastern zones/central Kansas, in an environment
favorable for supercells and high end hail/tornado risk.
Clearly, 5 days away, mesoscale/morning convection influences
are unknown. Quiet dry weather is expected behind this system
Wednesday and Thursday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Mid level cloud will be found around the HYS and DDC terminals
over the next few hours with VFR conditions through this
evening. Low clouds will filter in from north to south overnight
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions by sunrise tomorrow. Winds will
generally be from a southerly direction this evening, shifting
to an easterly direction after midnight.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
152 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-100700-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
152 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026 /1252 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Hail to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph are the
most likely hazards. The best chance of severe storms is along
I-70 near Hays and WaKeeney, with smaller chances farther south
and west.

Near critical fire weather is forecast for today, especially from
Dodge City south and west to Meade, Liberal and Ashland. Wind
gusts around 35 mph along with humidity between 17 and 22 percent
will lead to near critical conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
along the Oklahoma state line from Ashland to Medicine Lodge
Friday. Hail to quarter size and wind gusts as high as 60 mph are
the main concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather are always appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

KSZ065-092300-
Pawnee KS-
533 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Frizell, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Larned and Frizell around 540 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 9893 3812 9932 3830 9940 3834 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 254DEG 20KT 3819 9924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

KSZ087-088-092345-
Meade KS-Clark KS-
555 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MEADE AND
NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Meade, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Meade
and northwestern Clark Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3718 10023 3727 10028 3744 10005 3721 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 244DEG 17KT 3724 10021

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO