Wildfire in Texas, April 12 to 15, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
228 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Low chance of a storm to develop in the southeast Panhandle this
  evening, and a very low chance that if the storm forms it will
  be severe with large hail and damaging wind as the main concern.

- Drying trend with warm and breezy winds all week will return
  critical fire weather to most of the Panhandles. Despite recent
  rainfall please continue to limit activities that can spark an
  open flame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Stalled out ridge over the southeast CONUS and a lingering trough
over the central NV/CA area will continue to keep southwest flow
over the Panhandle for the rest of today and tomorrow.
Temperatures will be in the 80s to near 90. Winds will be out of
the south 15 to 20 mph today, and winds will be a bit stronger out
of the southwest tomorrow. Given the limited recent rain, today
is noted as an elevated day, but tomorrow with stronger winds and
very low RH values close to 10 percent we do expect critical Fire
Weather.

Further southeast today.  We do have some residual moisture from
yesterday's weather system, and dewpoints are currently in the upper
50s.  Overall, do not expect much to amount to this.  Showers and
storms may develop in the southeast Panhandle, but confidence is not
high that a storm will manage to get organized before it exits east
into OK.  That being said, on the very low chance ~5% that a storm
manages to go severe the concern would be large hail and damaging
wind.  Timing for a shower or storm to pop up looks to be in the 5
to 9pm time frame.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The trend from the short term discussion continues for the extended.
Southwest flow to continue each day, we do see a weak frontal system
clip the area on Saturday, that will cool us off into the 70s to low
80s, and given the quick passing surface low, the winds should be
more tame in the 5 to 15 mph range keeping fire weather conditions
elevated.  But by Thursday we could be looking at a mixed bag with
both dryline thunderstorms and critical fire weather.  Very dry and
warm conditions expected as southwest winds and RH values below 10
percent seem favorable.  But Thursday evening and possibly into the
overnight period, could see a surge of moisture into the southeast
Panhandle, due to the upper ridge over the Gulf being pinched
further west, allowing moisture that's been keep east of our area to
creep back into the southeast Panhandles. Confidence is not high,
but it's the next shot at any moisture relief for our area. Friday
will be met with another dry and warm day over the Panhandles and
that moisture from Thursday night will be pushed off to the east as
we have an approaching upper trough that is expected to bring a cold
front Friday night into Saturday.  The strength of the front could
be pretty decent given our prolonged warming trend and that NBM
forecast is in the 60s for the most part.  Precipitation is not
looking very exciting with this front, nor does it look like there's
much on the horizon after this frontal passage, so we'll continue
with the warm and dry conditions for quite awhile.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with mostly clear
skies to few high clouds. No storms expected around any TAF sites
today. Breezy winds out of the west to southwest is expected for
the TAF period. There may be some wind gusts up to 30kts from
21-03z time period.

Weber

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

While we did get some decent rain amounts in certain areas, overall
this one and done push of moisture is not likely to do much to help
the cured fuels, especially since we're now pushing warm, dry, and
breezy nearly every day all next week.  This will quickly take a lot
of the moisture out of the grass fuels.  RFTI's are expected to
range 4-6 Monday and Tuesday for most areas, the far southeast being
an exception.  We do have a somewhat of a jet aloft that could help
mix down stronger wind gusts, so there is a concern of it being a
good balance of both wind and RH in these RFTI values.  Fuels under
these conditions will likely be working their way back above the
90th percentile pretty quick.  Expect elevated to critical Fire
Weather each day for the week ahead given these conditions.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001>019-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ001>003.

&&

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
220 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-130730-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
220 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Very low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in the
southeast Panhandles tonight with damaging wind and large hail as
the primary threats. .

Elevated fire weather conditions in the NW panhandles due to gusty
winds and low RH this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Critical fire weather conditions on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and
Friday. Elevated conditions on Wednesday an Saturday.

Thursday night we may have some showers or storms in the
southeast Panhandles, right now the main concern will be
lightning, but the probability of severe weather at this time is
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.