What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 12, 11:42 AM CST, 9 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- A line of storms will continue across the across the Hill Country towards the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning, with heavy downpours and isolated severe weather possible.
- Isolated strong to severe storms with heavy downpours are possible this afternoon and evening across South-Central Texas.
- The potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall continues through the weekend into early next week.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 12, 11:42 AM CST, 9 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A line of storms will continue across the across the Hill
Country towards the I-35 corridor early Sunday morning, with heavy
downpours and isolated severe weather possible.
- Isolated strong to severe storms with heavy downpours are
possible this afternoon and evening across South-Central Texas.
- The potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall continues through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
A Flood Watch is now in effect for the I-35 Corridor and Coastal
Plains that goes through tomorrow morning. A heavy rain signal
continues to increase confidence in potential flooding for areas
in the watch this afternoon through tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
As of 1 AM CDT Sunday, a line of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms was moving across the southern Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country. It will continue to advance across the Hill Country
and portions of the I-35 corridor (mainly near the Austin area)
early this morning. The primary concern, given the very moist
airmass in place, is locally heavy downpours with the potential for
isolated instances of flash flooding. A residual isolated damaging
wind threat is also possible and underlies the currently active
Severe Thunderstorm Watches. However, that risk that should
generally decline during the morning as the storms move farther east
and start to lose their definition amid stabilizing air.
The forecast during the day Sunday is more uncertain than usual. The
morning storms are expected to consume some of the instability over
South-Central Texas and introduce slight capping. However, the
storms may leave a surface boundary draped across our area, and the
persistence of a warm and moist airmass will allow instability to
build throughout the day, especially along and west of the I-35
corridor. Isolated to scattered showers may continue through the
morning into the afternoon. If updrafts punch cleanly through the
cap, particularly on the leftover outflow boundary, there could be a
few isolated thunderstorms with accompanying heavy rain. Not all of
the high resolution models depict these stronger storms in the
afternoon, but those that do favor the I-35 corridor and Hill
Country. Given very high moisture levels for this time of year and
favorable atmospheric profiles, even relatively small showers can
still be highly efficient rainmakers. Even with the relatively low
confidence in storm coverage, the presence of a Level 2 of 4
(Slight) risk of excessive rainfall capable of causing flash
flooding underscores the anomalous moisture available to any showers
that develop Sunday. Based on this environment, this is our main
concern with today's storms.
Towards the evening hours and into Sunday night, sufficient heating
over Mexico and a subtle shortwave moving across the Rio Grande may
prompt the development thunderstorms. However, it is unclear whether
these will also extend into the Rio Grande Plains and southern
Edwards Plateau. If they do, the presence of moderately strong wind
shear (30-40 kt bulk shear) and high instability (above 2000 J/kg
CAPE) could support severe storms, with large hail the primary
hazard. This potential is encapsulated in the Level 2 of 5 (Slight)
risk for severe weather highlighted by the SPC for areas generally
along and west of the I-35 corridor. However, much like the activity
earlier on Sunday, the occurrence of this activity is highly
sensitive to preceding developments. Most of the hi-res models show
very sparse storm coverage Sunday evening, while the coarser
synoptic-scale models and machine learning models favor more rain
coverage. We'll likely have a better handle on this activity once
we're able to assess how the current line of storms impacts the
atmospheric environment.
Precipitable water levels ease slightly on Monday, but nonetheless
it will remain moist with PW above the 90th percentile. Stronger
capping is expected to be in place, and should generally limit
shower coverage. Still, a few thunderstorms could develop along the
dry line in West Texas, which could produce isolated severe activity
in the southern Edwards Plateau Monday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
The broad upper-level troughing pattern helping to shape our
unsettled weather persists through next week, along with the warm
and moist airmass over Texas. Southwesterly flow aloft will provide
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms most days, typically
in the afternoon and early evening in tandem with daytime heating.
Given the anomalous airmass, strong storms with locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible throughout the week.
Around midweek, a stronger shortwave associated with the broader
pattern swings east into the Central Plains, accompanied by a round
of stronger storms over the Central US. While the trajectory of this
trough will tend to keep the worst weather farther north, some
stronger storms could extend into our area sometime Tuesday or
Wednesday. Southwesterly mid- to upper-level flow continues through
the remainder of the week, though the lack of well-defined
shortwaves during the latter half of the week may limit the
potential for stronger storms and keep showers more isolated
compared to what we've been seeing the past few days.
Overnight temperatures will be relatively stable through the week,
buoyed into the 60s and low 70s by high dew points. Daytime highs
will generally be in the 80s, but could warm some into the low 90s
late next week during slightly calmer stretches with less rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Mostly MVFR conditions are expected today, though further west and
possibly over KSAT/KSSF some periods of VFR may be seen. Showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, will mainly be
focused from the Hill Country east today with timing tricky for I-35
terminals. Hi-res guidance suggests a later time storms to impact
terminals so pushed back TEMPO groups slightly to account for these
trends. This evening, ceilings drop to IFR and begin to spread west
reaching KDRT before sunrise. Local LIFR ceilings may be seen along
with areas of patchy dense fog, though confidence is not high enough
to include these mentions at any site. Wind remains south to
southeasterly through the period with gusty wind from 20-25 knots in
the eastern half of the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 70 85 69 86 / 60 10 0 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 85 68 85 / 60 20 0 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 86 68 86 / 50 20 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 67 83 67 82 / 50 10 10 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 70 87 70 84 / 10 20 40 40
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 82 67 82 / 60 10 0 10
Hondo Muni Airport 67 85 68 85 / 40 20 20 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 69 85 68 85 / 60 20 10 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 85 69 87 / 50 20 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 70 85 70 85 / 50 20 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 71 86 70 86 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ173-191>194-206>209-
223>225.
&&
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...27
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 12, 6:55 AM CST, 4 hours 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
755 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
TXZ185-186-121345-
Kerr TX-Real TX-
755 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Kerr
and northeastern Real Counties through 845 AM CDT...
At 754 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Tuff, or 13 miles north of Leakey, moving northeast at
40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ingram, Hunt, Mountain Home, Kerr Wildlife Management Area, Waltonia,
I-10 Near The Kimble-Kerr County Line, The Intersection Of I-10 And
Us 290, and Prade Ranch.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3017 9930 3014 9930 3013 9927 3004 9919
2990 9954 2991 9960 2988 9960 2979 9983
2995 9995 3008 9980 3008 9976 3011 9976
3029 9954 3029 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 235DEG 35KT 2991 9981
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
05Special weather statement, Apr 12, 7:38 AM CST, 4 hours 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
838 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
TXZ223>225-121430-
Lavaca TX-De Witt TX-Gonzales TX-
838 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern DeWitt,
central Gonzales and west central Lavaca Counties through 930 AM
CDT...
At 837 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westhoff, or 13 miles north of Yorktown, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Gonzales, Shiner, Hochheim, Cheapside, Westhoff, Sample, Glaze City,
Wrightsboro, Cost, Dilworth, Dreyer, Little New York, and Hamon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2906 9748 2912 9763 2916 9766 2963 9752
2949 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 205DEG 28KT 2917 9754
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
05Special weather statement, Apr 12, 7:43 AM CST, 4 hours 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
843 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
TXZ186-188-121430-
Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-
843 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Kerr
and western Gillespie Counties through 930 AM CDT...
At 843 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kerr Wildlife Management Area, or 21 miles west of Kerrville, moving
northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Ingram, Hunt, Mountain Home, Tivydale, Doss, Kerr
Wildlife Management Area, Waltonia, and Harper.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3025 9890 2994 9949 3008 9962 3029 9940
3029 9930 3039 9930 3050 9918 3050 9914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1343Z 229DEG 35KT 3006 9949
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
05Special weather statement, Apr 12, 8:08 AM CST, 3 hours 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
908 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
TXZ203-204-218-219-121515-
Frio TX-Uvalde TX-Medina TX-Zavala TX-
908 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Medina,
southeastern Uvalde, northeastern Zavala and northwestern Frio
Counties through 1015 AM CDT...
At 908 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Loma Vista, or 8 miles southeast of Batesville,
moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Bluff, and Frio Town.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2872 9951 2885 9966 2926 9941 2903 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 1408Z 224DEG 24KT 2885 9953
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
05Special weather statement, Apr 12, 8:27 AM CST, 3 hours 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
927 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
TXZ171-188-190-121530-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Llano TX-
927 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Blanco,
central Gillespie and southeastern Llano Counties through 1030 AM
CDT...
At 927 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tivydale, or 11 miles west of Fredericksburg, moving northeast at 40
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Round Mountain, Johnson City, Stonewall, Blowout,
Cain City, Tivydale, Sandy, Willow City, Rocky Hill, LBJ State Park,
Rocky Creek, Hye, Blumenthal, Eckert, Crabapple, Luckenbach, Harper,
and LBJ National Historical Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3029 9831 3014 9892 3014 9913 3025 9919
3064 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 243DEG 34KT 3021 9907
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
05Special weather statement, Apr 12, 11:25 AM CST, 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
TXZ209-225-121815-
Lavaca TX-Fayette TX-
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Fayette and northwestern Lavaca Counties through 115 PM CDT...
At 1225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moulton, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Schulenburg, Moulton, Komensky, Swiss Alp, Freyburg, Witting, Dubina,
Moravia, High Hill, Engle, and Breslau.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 2945 9702 2957 9715 2981 9693 2971 9680
2963 9687 2961 9684 2958 9683 2958 9679
2956 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 226DEG 12KT 2955 9703
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
62