Despite drought improvement noted in February 2026, conditions deteriorated in March due to an abnormally dry month. Rainfall deficits for the month were over 3 inches with the least amount of rain measured across northwest Middle Tennessee.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Despite drought improvement noted in February 2026, conditions deteriorated in March due to an abnormally dry month. Rainfall deficits for the month were over 3 inches with the least amount of rain measured across northwest Middle Tennessee. Clarksville in particular only measured 0.86 inches of rain during the entire month of March which was 3.46 inches below normal. By the end of March, all of Middle Tennessee was in at least the abnormally dry category. About 57 percent of the area was in at least moderate drought with about 7 percent of this area in severe drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:25 PM CST, 35 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1125 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Slightly cooler, but spring-like conditions continue on Sunday. - Medium to high rain chances return Sunday night and Monday for the northern 2/3 of Middle TN. South 1/3 only a low chance. - Unsettled pattern across the region presents a low to medium chance of showers and storms for the second half of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 918 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 While Middle TN is enjoying clear skies and lots of stars this evening, there is actually a very weak frontal boundary off to our northwest. Draped from southern Ohio back to the southwest into southern Missouri, this boundary is providing for some very weak reflectivities on radar. However, it's stinkin' dry out there. Dew point depressions in KY where these echoes are located range from 15 to 25 degrees and it's likely anything we see on radar isn't making it to the ground. Fortunately, our Td depressions are the same here at home. For this reason, I'm going to withhold dropping at 20 PoP into the short term forecast. Clouds will increase and as a result of the frontal passage overnight and additional cloud cover tomorrow, look for afternoon highs Sunday to be 8-10 degrees cooler than Saturday. Still, it's going to be another great day. The question then becomes, when will it rain? Consensus is pretty good that we're still looking at showers entering northwest Middle TN late tomorrow night, spreading across most of the area through the day on Monday. That said, I don't know that everyone will see the rain. Those closer to the AL/TN state line could catch a shower, but even if they do, it won't be much. The bulk of this system will be focused across the northern 2/3 of the mid-state and even then, QPFs should be 1/4" or less. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 918 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 As this system lifts out of the region Monday night, Middle TN becomes warm-sectored starting Tuesday. The boundary layer will firmly be out of the south and with southwest flow aloft, the second half of the this week is going to be warm. Real. Warm. I mean to the point of us potentially seeing close to 80 degrees at BNA Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week. Of course, this time of year, with temperatures like that, we HAVE to be expecting storms, right? You'd think so. The catch this week is the upper level ridge over the southeastern US. Depending what it ends up doing, the bulk of storms may very well remain to our west. This will be the key to the forecast over the next 7 days. If the ridge breaks down at all and allows storms into the area, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points close to 60, things could get spicy. Right now, there's just too much variation in model solutions to pick specific day where this might happen, so the need will be to watch the forecast closely, especially for the second half of this week and into next weekend. One potential result could be our far northwest counties seeing multiple days of rain, leading to a flood threat by next weekend, so interests in this area will want to pay particular attention. Bottom line, everyone will be 20+ degrees above normal for a good chunk of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Rain showers move into Middle TN from the NW after 06z Monday. SW winds shift to the N today, becoming NE through the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 49 68 46 66 / 10 0 40 30 Clarksville 46 62 43 60 / 20 10 60 70 Crossville 45 66 45 61 / 0 0 30 10 Columbia 47 70 48 69 / 0 0 40 10 Cookeville 47 65 45 62 / 10 0 40 30 Jamestown 45 62 41 58 / 10 0 40 40 Lawrenceburg 47 71 49 70 / 0 0 30 10 Murfreesboro 46 69 48 69 / 0 0 40 10 Waverly 48 65 47 65 / 10 0 50 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Cravens
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions across eastern Cumberland County from February 2026 persisted into March.
Despite improvement to moderate drought conditions in February 2026 in Stewart County, conditions deteriorated again in March to severe drought.
Despite improvement to moderate drought conditions in February 2026 in Montgomery County, conditions deteriorated again in March to severe drought.
Severe drought conditions developed across Perry County in March 2026.
Severe drought conditions developed across Wayne County in March 2026.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1315959, 1315960, 1315961, 1315962, 1315963.