Drought in Florida, March 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
912 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 906 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Areas of fog, locally dense, are expected tonight across most of
  the area. If traveling late tonight or early Sunday morning,
  slow down, use low-beam headlights, and increase your following
  distance.

- A high risk of life threatening rip currents is expected for the
  eastern panhandle beaches today. Please heed the advice of local
  beach patrol and flags.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected by the middle of
  next week with highs reaching the mid 80s. There is a low chance
  of reaching record high temperatures late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

The only change of note to tonight's forecast was adjusting sky
cover to account for persistent batch of wedge stratus clouds over
the Eastern FL Big Bend and parts of South-Central GA. This
activity has been on a diminishing trend while pushing southward
this evening. Temperatures at those locations are starting out
relatively cooler as a result, compared to the western two-thirds
of the Tri-State area.

The overnight conditions will be supportive again for widespread
fog/low stratus into tomorrow morning thanks to ideal radiational
cooling and light-to-calm winds amidst a very moist/stable
boundary layer. Guidance is aggressive on fog development from NE
to SW mainly after midnight towards the I-10 corridor. Elected to
hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for this evening's update
until observational trends raise confidence on placement.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Clouds have been stubborn this afternoon across our Eastern Time
Zone communities thanks to some wedge influence from the
Appalachians. Much of southwest Georgia remains in the 50s as of
noon ET, while areas that have seen more sun have cracked into the
60s and even near 70. If/when clouds beach up, temperatures should
climb into the mid to uppers 60s in southwest Georgia and low to mid
70s elsewhere. Another round of fog is expected tonight across much
of the area, generally away from the coast. Some of the fog could be
locally dense overnight into Sunday morning. Lows will be in the 40s
to low 50s.

There should be more sunshine for Sunday across the area, which will
allow for temperatures to increase to the mid 70s to low 80s for
highs. Another round of fog is expected Sunday night, though not
quite as widespread as winds will keep some of it mixed as low
stratus.

Through the workweek, ridging will build over the eastern US and
western Atlantic, keeping any systems away from the area. The
shortwaves will tend to go up and around us, though some uncertainty
exists in how much influence they will have on our weather,
particularly in terms of rain chances. Early in the week, rain
chances are near zero, but mid to late week, some scattered showers
and isolated storms will be possible during the afternoons given
daytime heating and ample moisture in place with some influence from
the sea breeze. The big story will be the temperatures with highs
climbing well in to the 80s mid to late week. This is well above
seasonal averages for early March (near 70). There is a low chance
of reaching record highs as we close out the upcoming work week into
next weekend. Lows likewise will climb into the 50s and eventually
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

A wedge of lingering low stratus will continue to affect TLH/VLD
via MVFR cigs for about another 1-2 hrs. Otherwise, VFR conds
temporarily prevails this evening before another round of fog/low
stratus impacts all terminals later tonight into tmrw morning.
Some fog may become locally dense at times once again with the
highest confidence in occurrence at ABY near or around sunrise.
Faster improvement to VFR is more likely thereafter since the NE
wedge flow pattern from today should loosen its grip.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Northeasterly winds tonight will become more easterly Sunday into
next week. Nocturnal easterly surges will move across the waters
early next week with fresh breezes expected each night, especially
over the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. There is a medium (40-
60%) chance of winds reaching advisory level Monday night into
Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Dry weather is expected into early next week. Transport winds will
be light out of the northeast on Sunday, then increase slightly out
of the southeast for Monday and Tuesday. Mixing heights increase
gradually each afternoon as well. This will lead to good dispersions
Sunday with good to high dispersions Monday and possible Tuesday
away from the coast. RH values will remain above critical levels
each afternoon, bottoming out in the low to mid 30s Sunday and
Monday afternoons, with more 40s by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Rain is not expected through the middle of the upcoming week with
only widespread light accumulations likely thereafter. Thus, there
are no flood concerns. Drought continues to be the primary
hydrologic concern with severe to extreme drought continuing. For
the latest details on drought and its local impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   50  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  75  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        47  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      48  78  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    48  80  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  55  70  56  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young/IG3
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young